Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Friday, September 18, 2026
Key Facts
- Two central banks moved in opposite directions this week, Brazil cutting the Selic to 13.75% on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve raising to 3.75-4.00% the same day.
- The Bank of Japan then raised its own rate to 1.25% overnight, a thirty-one-year high that lifts the cost of the yen borrowing behind many emerging-market trades.
- The Ibovespa closed Thursday at 185,992, up 0.24%, on turnover of R$18.6 billion, about US$3.6 billion, after falling more than one percent intraday.
- The real firmed to R$5.1289 per dollar, down 0.24%, holding inside the band traders have watched since the start of the month.
- Brazil’s calendar is not empty today, with the Getúlio Vargas Foundation publishing the second September preview of the IGP-M index at 08:00.
- Bradesco fell short of its own capital-raise floor, taking R$6.541 billion, roughly US$1.27 billion, against a first-phase minimum of R$8 billion or about US$1.56 billion.
Today’s Focus
The week’s defining event for Brazilian traders was not one decision but two, taken hours apart in opposite directions. The Copom cut the Selic to 13.75% on Wednesday evening; the Federal Reserve lifted its target range to 3.75-4.00% the same afternoon.
That was the fifth consecutive quarter-point Brazilian cut. It was also the first American increase since 2023.
Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation had been too high for too long. The committee’s projections point to at least one further rise this year.
The arithmetic matters more than the rhetoric. The gap between Brazilian and American policy rates is now the narrowest of this cycle.
Tokyo added a third move overnight, taking its benchmark to 1.25% from 1.00%. That is the highest Japanese policy rate in thirty-one years, and the Nikkei still climbed 1.38%.
Brazilian assets have so far absorbed all of this without breaking. The Ibovespa rose on Thursday and the real strengthened, which is not the textbook response to a narrowing rate differential.
What matters today. Whether the real holds below R$5.15 to the dollar now that the rate cushion behind it has thinned. A break above that line would be the first sign the carry math is biting.
Today’s Economic Events
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 185,992.03 | +0.24% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,637.76 | +1.14% |
| Nasdaq Composite (US) | 26,418 | +1.69% |
| VIX (US volatility) | 15.44 | -12.82% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1289 | -0.48% |
| Gold (per ounce) | US$4,346.42 | +1.74% |
| Silver (per ounce) | US$65.43 | +3.44% |
| Oil fund (USO) | US$155.31 | -0.55% |
Ibovespa — Thursday, 17 September 2026 close. Brent and gold in US dollars.
01 The setup in one read
Brazil opens Friday having already traded the Copom decision. The question is how much further the committee can go with the Federal Reserve moving the other way.
The real is the instrument that answers it. It closed at R$5.1289 per dollar, and traders have watched the band between R$5.10 and R$5.15 to the dollar all month.
The index tells a gentler story than the currency. The Ibovespa has traded in a narrow range since the start of September, and Thursday’s 0.24% gain kept it inside it.
What broke the pattern on Thursday was a welfare announcement rather than a rate. The index fell more than one percent before recovering, once traders decided the political reading outweighed the fiscal one.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
| Instrument | Last close | Session | Watch today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 185,992 | +0.24% | Holds the September range after an intraday drop |
| USD/BRL | 5.1289 | -0.48% | Support near 5.10, resistance near 5.15 to the dollar |
| S&P 500 | 7,637.76 | +1.14% | A supportive backdrop for regional risk |
| VIX | 15.44 | -12.82% | Volatility unwound after the Fed decision |
| Brent crude | US$104.82 | -0.95% | Softer on the Saudi pipeline workaround |
| Gold | US$4,346 | +1.74% | Rebound after Wednesday’s rate-driven fall |
The board argues for a steady rather than a decisive open. Nothing in Thursday’s closes points to a break in either direction, and the domestic calendar is light enough to leave positioning in charge.
The one live domestic number lands before the bell. The Getúlio Vargas Foundation publishes its second September preview of the IGP-M wholesale index at eight in the morning.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.75%
167,921.80
-0.75%
69,779.20
-0.01%
10,374.91
+1.18%
2,848,945
—
2,490.92
+0.00%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 167,921.80 | -0.75% | +19.56% | 169,186.42 | 178,526 | 175,157 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.34 | -1.32% | -0.84% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.30 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +7.53% | -4.87% | 5.54 | 6.04 | 5.92 | — |
| SELIC | 13.75% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 109.58 | -5.38% | +66.99% | 115.81 | 111.92 | 109.00 | 34,268 |
| WTI | 100.12 | -1.61% | +63.30% | 101.76 | 102.82 | 99.77 | 201,568 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +53.37% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,073 | +0.85% | +1.32% | 4,038 | 4,079 | 4,002 | 117,083 |
| SILVER | 54.49 | +0.70% | +17.02% | 54.11 | 54.64 | 52.71 | 34,428 |
| LITHIUM | 62.43 | +1.89% | +5.14% | 61.27 | 62.62 | 61.56 | 130,024 |
| SOY | 1,250 | +0.70% | +17.12% | 1,241 | 1,262 | 1,249 | 156,494 |
| CORN | 450.25 | -1.04% | +5.01% | 455.00 | 455.00 | 449.75 | 143,350 |
| WHEAT | 614.75 | -0.20% | +16.87% | 616.00 | 618.50 | 610.00 | 51,884 |
| COFFEE | 294.35 | -2.19% | -24.54% | 300.95 | 304.90 | 289.05 | 16,022 |
| SUGAR | 19.26 | +0.84% | +33.20% | 19.10 | 19.42 | 19.03 | 74,161 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 143.20 | +5.45% | -26.07% | 135.80 | 148.80 | 142.50 | 1,394 |
| COTTON | 77.90 | -1.47% | +20.66% | 79.06 | 81.07 | 80.01 | 20,308 |
| BEEF | 230.73 | +0.33% | +0.83% | 229.98 | 231.58 | 229.75 | 13,888 |
| CATTLE | 346.40 | -1.00% | +0.26% | 349.90 | 349.70 | 346.33 | 5,755 |
| COCOA | 5,581 | +1.66% | -9.72% | 5,490 | 5,622 | 5,444 | 13,619 |
| PETR4 | 53.31 | -1.06% | +77.70% | 53.88 | 53.70 | 52.83 | 43,239,500 |
| VALE3 | 62.88 | -2.33% | +1.98% | 64.38 | 64.43 | 62.80 | 24,652,300 |
| SUZB3 | 47.14 | -0.55% | -3.79% | 47.40 | 47.84 | 46.10 | 7,151,800 |
| KLABIN | 18.73 | -0.43% | +6.46% | 18.81 | 19.04 | 18.45 | 6,051,800 |
| SLCE3 | 16.97 | -2.75% | +19.37% | 17.45 | 17.77 | 16.94 | 3,109,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.40 | +0.20% | +26.75% | 15.37 | 15.68 | 15.31 | 27,307,400 |
| ITUB4 | 41.42 | -0.67% | +11.30% | 41.70 | 42.60 | 41.15 | 28,160,700 |
| BBDC4 | 15.69 | -1.63% | -13.88% | 15.95 | 16.30 | 15.67 | 65,766,400 |
| BBAS3 | 17.59 | +0.69% | -15.59% | 17.47 | 18.31 | 17.51 | 67,844,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.27 | +1.33% | +21.71% | 15.07 | 15.78 | 15.20 | 75,282,000 |
| WEGE3 | 45.78 | +2.81% | +10.06% | 44.53 | 47.08 | 45.06 | 9,823,200 |
| PRIO3 | 69.21 | -2.71% | +87.14% | 71.14 | 70.98 | 69.15 | 6,663,200 |
| RENT3 | 31.14 | -1.67% | -20.73% | 31.67 | 32.68 | 31.02 | 19,092,400 |
| AZZA3 | 16.72 | +1.15% | -42.24% | 16.53 | 17.42 | 16.72 | 4,875,400 |
| CSNA3 | 4.76 | -4.99% | -47.09% | 5.01 | 5.14 | 4.76 | 14,327,900 |
| GGBR4 | 24.87 | -2.28% | +36.28% | 25.45 | 26.20 | 24.79 | 7,507,900 |
| ENEV3 | 26.79 | +0.45% | +49.78% | 26.67 | 27.35 | 26.30 | 12,263,000 |
| LREN3 | 9.75 | +0.72% | -33.67% | 9.68 | 10.33 | 9.75 | 29,053,800 |
03 On the B3 radar today
| Item | When | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| IGP-M second preview | 8 am BRT | The first read on September wholesale prices after five consecutive Selic cuts |
| US industrial production | 10:15 am BRT | Sets the global risk tone for emerging-market equities |
| Bowman and Schmid speak | 10:30 am and 12:45 pm BRT | Either could shift expectations for the next American move |
| Colombia ISE activity index | 12 pm BRT | A regional growth read with forecasts spread from 0.2% to 2.3% |
| Argentina trade balance | 4 pm BRT | Consensus US$2.055 billion against July’s US$2.115 billion |
| CFTC positioning | 4:30 pm BRT | Shows how crowded the real trade has become among speculators |
Chile is absent from the board entirely. The Bolsa de Santiago is shut today for Independencia Nacional and shut again on Saturday, which thins regional turnover through the session.
That matters more than it sounds. Chilean names trade only through their New York listings until Monday, and copper-linked flows lose one of their usual venues.
04 The rate collision nobody had priced together
Brazil began this easing cycle with the Selic at 15%. Five quarter-point cuts have taken it to 13.75%, and the committee said it would act with what it called serenity and caution.
The Federal Reserve was expected to hold. Instead it raised, which turned a comfortable carry trade into a narrower one in the space of an afternoon.
Japanese money has funded that kind of trade for a generation. A policy rate of 1.25% in Tokyo does not end it, but it raises the price of the borrowing that feeds it.
The real has not yet reflected any of this. It strengthened on Thursday, which suggests that equity inflows are still doing more work than the interest-rate arithmetic.
05 Corporate Brazil this morning
Bradesco raised R$6.541 billion, about US$1.27 billion, in the first phase of a capital increase of up to R$10 billion or roughly US$1.95 billion. The bank had set a floor of R$8 billion, near US$1.56 billion, for that stage.
The remaining shares now go to a further distribution. Bradesco’s preferred shares were the single most heavily traded name on B3 on Thursday.
The Supreme Federal Court’s investigation into Banco Master is the second live question for bank risk. Traders reading the sector this morning have two stories rather than one.
Petrobras raised its diesel reference price by R$1 a litre, about US$0.19, on Wednesday. A finance ministry order published the same day created a matching subsidy, so the price distributors actually pay did not change.
06 The regional picture
| Market | Close | Session | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 185,992.03 | +0.24% | Recovered from an intraday fall of 1.24% |
| S&P/BMV IPC (Mexico) | 63,873 | +0.58% | First session after Independence Day |
| S&P Merval (Argentina) | 3,061,512 | +1.08% | Rose as country risk climbed to 515 points |
| S&P IPSA (Chile) | 11,381 | +1.30% | Session shortened, closing at one in the afternoon |
| MSCI COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,521.85 | +0.40% | Index up while the peso fell 1.09% |
Every major regional index rose on Thursday. The divergence was in the currencies rather than the equities.
The Colombian peso was the outlier, weakening 0.31% to about 3,154 per dollar. That came in the same week the central bank’s analyst survey lifted the median December inflation forecast to 6.81%.
07 What to watch today
- The 5.15 line on USD/BRL. A close above it would be the first sign that the narrower rate gap is starting to bite.
- The IGP-M preview at eight. Wholesale prices are the earliest read on whether five cuts have started to show up in the pipeline.
- Bowman and Schmid. Two Federal Reserve speakers in one session can move the dollar more than any Brazilian release today.
- Bank shares. Bradesco’s shortfall and the Banco Master investigation give the sector two separate reasons to trade heavily.
- Thin regional liquidity. With Santiago shut, cross-border flows concentrate in São Paulo and Mexico City.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Selic rate now?
The Copom cut the Selic to 13.75% a year on Wednesday 16 September, from 14.00%. It was the fifth consecutive quarter-point reduction and the decision was unanimous.
What did the Federal Reserve do this week?
It raised its target range to 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday 16 September, the first American increase since 2023. Projections from the meeting point to at least one more rise before the end of the year.
Why does the Bank of Japan matter to Brazil?
Japanese borrowing costs have funded carry trades into emerging markets for decades. The move to 1.25%, a thirty-one-year high, raises the cost of that funding.
Where did the Ibovespa close on Thursday?
The index ended at 185,992 points, up 0.24%, on turnover of R$18.6 billion or about US$3.6 billion. It had fallen more than one percent earlier in the session.
What Brazilian data comes out today?
The Getúlio Vargas Foundation publishes the second September preview of the IGP-M wholesale inflation index at eight in the morning. There are no other major domestic releases.
Is the Chilean market open today?
No. The Bolsa de Santiago is closed on Friday 18 September for Independencia Nacional and again on Saturday for the Día de las Glorias del Ejército.
Sources: Copom statement and Banco Central do Brasil; B3 session data; Exame and InfoMoney closing reports for 17 September 2026; Bank of Japan monetary policy statement of 18 September 2026; Getúlio Vargas Foundation and INDEC release calendars; Bradesco material fact; Portaria MF nº 2.813 of 16 September 2026; Rankia trading calendar for the Bolsa de Santiago.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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