Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 2, 2026

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.

Today’s Key Themes

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• Brazil job creation slowdown → Added 1.279M formal jobs in 2025, weakest since 2020’s net loss, driven by services but hampered by 15% Selic rate and U.S. tariffs; signals fading labor momentum amid tight credit, pressuring household growth bets.

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• Fiscal picture → Primary deficit R$55B (0.43% GDP) in 2025, with R$1T interest bill (7.91% GDP) inflating nominal deficit to 8.34% GDP; highlights fiscal discipline offset by debt costs, testing policy credibility.

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• State companies profits → R$136.3B through Q3 2025 (up 22.5%), concentrated in Petrobras (R$94.6B, 69.4%), Banco do Brasil (R$246.7B revenue), Caixa (R$199.5B revenue); underscores commodity and banking strength but concentration risks.

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• CBA acquisition → Chinalco (67%) and Rio Tinto (33%) joint venture to buy Votorantim’s 68.6% stake for R$4.69B at R$10.50/share (21% premium); may delist, boosts Brazil’s clean aluminum role in global supply chains.

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• Nubank US charter → Conditional OCC approval for Nubank, N.A.; 18-month opening timeline with FDIC/Fed nods pending; enhances fintech legitimacy, aiding U.S. digital banking push and Brazil’s global ties.

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\nBroader risk: Labor/fiscal headwinds temper EM inflows, but state/fintech momentum and commodity deals offset; policy shifts (Fed Warsh nomination, BCB signals) and metals volatility could spur corrections.
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Economic Agenda for February 2, 2026

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Brazil

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• 6:25 AM BRT – BCB Focus Market Readout Cons: – Prev: –

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• 8:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Cons: – Prev: 47.6

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Mexico

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• All Day – Holiday: Constitution Day

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Chile

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• 6:30 AM CLT – Economic Activity (YoY) (Dec) Cons: – Prev: 1.2%

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United States

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• 5:00 AM EST – OPEC Meeting

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• 9:45 AM EST – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Cons: 51.9 Prev: 51.9

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• 10:00 AM EST – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Cons: 48.5 Prev: 47.9

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EU

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• 2:00 AM CET – German Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) Cons: -0.1% Prev: -0.5%

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• 4:00 AM CET – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Cons: 49.4 Prev: 48.8

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• 9:00 AM CET – French 12-Month BTF Auction Cons: – Prev: 2.084%

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Canada

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• 9:30 AM EST – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Cons: – Prev: 48.6

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Japan

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• 6:50 PM JST – Monetary Base (YoY) (Jan) Cons: -10.2% Prev: -9.8%

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Australia

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• 7:30 AM AEDT – Building Approvals (MoM) (Dec) Cons: -6.4% Prev: 15.2%

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• 10:30 PM AEDT – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb) Cons: 3.85% Prev: 3.60%

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• 11:30 PM AEDT – RBA Monetary Policy Statement Cons: – Prev: –

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\nImplication: Brazil’s BCB Focus Market Readout surveys economist forecasts on inflation, growth, rates, and FX, guiding BCB decisions and market pricing—critical for gauging policy path amid fiscal pressures.
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\nS&P Global Manufacturing PMI assesses factory output, orders, and sentiment (above 50 signals expansion), revealing industrial health key to GDP and jobs amid global slowdown risks.
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\nRegional LatAm data add context: Mexico’s Constitution Day holiday pauses activity, but nearshoring resilience remains watched amid U.S. policy shifts.
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\nChile’s Economic Activity YoY tracks monthly GDP proxy, highlighting export/commodity-driven growth vital for copper flows and regional sentiment.
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\nColombia quiet on data but policy watch continues. These feed into broader EM sentiment, commodity prices, and potential spillover to Ibovespa/Real.
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\nU.S. OPEC Meeting discusses oil production quotas, influencing global energy prices and inflation; Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI measure factory activity and orders, shaping Fed rate expectations and dollar strength.
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\nEU German Retail Sales gauge consumer spending in the bloc’s largest economy, signaling demand trends; Manufacturing PMI tracks eurozone industrial output, informing ECB policy; French BTF Auctions reflect short-term borrowing costs, testing debt sentiment.
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\nCanada’s Manufacturing PMI evaluates sector health, impacting growth outlooks and BoC decisions.
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\nJapan’s Monetary Base YoY monitors money supply growth, guiding BoJ easing stance and yen dynamics.
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\nAustralia’s Building Approvals MoM signals housing/investment activity; RBA Interest Rate Decision sets cash rate, affecting AUD and flows; RBA Monetary Policy Statement provides guidance on inflation and economy. Global data mix (U.S./EU anchors) dominates amid dollar rebound and metals sell-off.
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Brazil’s Markets Yesterday

\nIbovespa +12.56% in January to cap best month since November 2020, pushing above 186,000 intraday on foreign inflows over R$23B through Jan 28 (largest since Jan 2022); momentum cooling but uptrend intact amid geopolitical rotations and high real rates.
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\nDollar +1.04% at R$5.2476 per $1, rebounding on Warsh Fed nomination but down 4.40% for month amid real strength.
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\nRead more 
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Commodity Markets

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Palladium

\nPrice: $1,611.86/oz, down 5.1%.
\nWhat’s happening: Technical selloff and forced liquidations spread from gold/silver amid margin hikes.
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Platinum

\nPrice: $1,958.93/oz, down 9.4%.
\nWhat’s happening: Giving back January surge on leverage flush after CME margin increases.
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Gold

\nPrice: $4,565.79/oz, down 6.1%.
\nWhat’s happening: Profit-taking and forced selling on stronger dollar post-Warsh nomination.
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Silver

\nPrice: $74.48/oz, down 12.0%.
\nWhat’s happening: Unwinding overheated run with margin requirements magnifying liquidations.
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Copper

\nPrice: $5.8051/lb, down 2.01%.
\nWhat’s happening: Sliding on commodity risk-off and pre-holiday caution in China after crowded rally.
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Aluminum

\nPrice: $3,144/ton, down 2.31%.
\nWhat’s happening: Cooling with industrial metals pullback as dollar firms and risk fades.
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Iron ore (62% Fe CFR futures)

\nPrice: $105.62/ton, up 2.17%.
\nWhat’s happening: Choppy on inventory worries and slower pre-holiday buying limiting conviction.
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Currency

\nBrazilian Real → USD/BRL at R$5.2476 +1.04%; rebound on global dollar strength post-Warsh but resilient for month on flows and policy support.
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Companies and Market

\nNubank Wins Conditional U.S. Charter Approval, Starting An 18-Month Race
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\nChina And Rio Tinto Move To Buy Brazil’s Aluminium Champion CBA
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\nRead more 
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\nBrazil’s State Companies Posted Big Profits Through Q3 2025
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\nRead more 
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U.S. Markets Yesterday

\nDow +0.1% (55.96 points) to 49,071.56; S&P 500 and Nasdaq down, with Nasdaq -0.7% to 23,685.12; monthly gains for Dow/S&P amid Warsh Fed nomination lifting dollar.
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Regional Peers — Mixed to Positive:

\nColombia Morning Markets Report: Friday’s Risk-Off Echo Still Shapes COP And COLCAP
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\nRead more 
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\nMexico Markets Morning Note: Peso Softens, Equities Hit An Air Pocket After Friday’s Selloff
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\nRead more 
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\nArgentina’s Peso Holds A Tight Blue Premium As Metals Meltdown
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\nRead more 
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\nChile Markets Morning Update: USD/CLP Jumps Toward 872 As IPSA Slips Under 11,500
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\nRead more 
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\nNote: Crypto markets remain fragile amid technical pressures and policy uncertainties.
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Related coverage: Ibovespa session | dollar-real exchange rate

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