Brazilian Tycoon’s Bid Sparks Braskem Stock Rally Amid Ownership Shakeup

Braskem’s shares surged 6.3% to R$11.79 on May 26, 2025, after Novonor confirmed a non-binding acquisition proposal from billionaire Nelson Tanure’s investment fund, Petroquímica Verde.

The bid targets Novonor’s 50.1% voting stake in Braskem, Latin America’s largest petrochemical producer, through a 90-day exclusivity negotiation period. This marks Novonor’s latest attempt to offload its stake after failed talks with ADNOC, LyondellBasell, and J&F since 2022.

Creditor banks—Itaú, Bradesco, Santander, and Banco do Brasil—hold veto power over the deal, as they collateralized Novonor’s R$15 billion ($2.6 billion) debt with Braskem shares.

Tanure’s proposal aims to address Braskem’s $6.6 billion net debt and $4.7 billion liability tied to geological damage in Maceió, Alagoas, where salt mining caused ground subsidence affecting 60,000 residents.

The company allocated R$1.3 billion ($0.21 billion) in January 2025 to stabilize the region, bringing total related spending to R$15 billion since 2019.

Despite a Q1 2025 net profit of BRL 698 million ($113 million), reversing 2024’s losses, Braskem remains exposed to volatile global petrochemical spreads and relies on costlier naphtha feedstock.

Petrobras, Braskem’s second-largest shareholder with 47% voting rights, holds preemptive purchase privileges and could block Tanure’s entry into the shareholder pact.

Petrobras’ $2.1 Billion GasLub Complex and Braskem Deal

The state oil giant is concurrently advancing its $2.1 billion GasLub complex, a potential competitor to Braskem’s operations. Analysts at Bradesco BBI doubt the deal will shift operational control, predicting only a possible tag-along payout for minority shareholders.

BTG highlights structural risks, noting Braskem’s feedstock disadvantages and unresolved legal claims in Alagoas totaling $6.9 billion. Market timing raises questions, as Braskem’s stock trades near cyclical lows amid weak petrochemical margins.

Novonor’s creditors face pressure to stabilize assets before exiting, while Tanure’s plan to leverage Petrobras’ pre-salt gas reserves remains theoretical without formal agreements.

The bid’s success hinges on aligning Petrobras, creditors, and Brazil’s development bank BNDES, which mediates restructuring talks.

If finalized, this would mark Brazil’s largest industrial turnaround since Novonor’s 2018 bankruptcy, testing investor appetite for complex overhauls in volatile markets.

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