Argentine deposits in Uruguay reach a maximum since 2016

It is the counterpart of the outflow of foreign currency from Argentine banks, which reached US$1 billion since the departure of Martín Guzmán.

Two months have passed since the resignation of Martín Guzmán on Saturday, July 2. The official’s departure unleashed a shock in the economy that included the rise in inflation, the rise in rates so that the Treasury could finance itself, and a general uncertainty, with the blue dollar reaching a record of US$350 in July.

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While Minister Sergio Massa seeks to channel all the variables, there was one that set off a small warning signal: since Guzmán left, bank deposits in dollars have decreased by US$1.018 billion.

They went from US$15.565 billion in July to US$14.547 billion on August 23, although they stabilized at that value since mid-August.

The maximum level had been US$32 billion in 2019, before the PASO (Primary, Open, Simultaneous and Compulsory) of August of that year.

The drop in deposits -in addition to demonstrating the lack of confidence- is relevant because those dollars are taken into account to account for the amount of reserves that the Central Bank has.

While the deposits of the Argentine banks leave, the dollars that are deposited in Uruguay grow, a trend that is not new and that has been taking place since January.

In December 2021, US$3.339 billion from non-residents had been deposited in Uruguay. In this group there are not only Argentines, but they are the majority, about 70%, according to data handled by the financial system of the neighboring country.

Since December, these deposits have been growing month by month, reaching US$3.546 billion in June, the latest data available and the maximum value since December 2016. That amount represents an increase of 6%, or US$200 million.

The statistics of the Uruguayan Central Bank go back to 1998. From that date until now, the peak of dollars of non-residents in the banks of that country was US$6.198 billion in November 2001, months before the post-convertibility Argentine devaluation.

The outflow of foreign currency to Uruguay increased during 2001 as the crisis of the government of Fernando de la Rúa deepened. After that date, deposits from non-residents also began to leave Montevideo, perhaps destined for other more distant markets.

From that peak in November 2001, in 10 months they fell 80%, to US$1.215 billion in September 2002 and to a floor of US$1.1 billion in April 2003.

From there, the values ​​increased year after year until reaching the maximum of US$4.7 billion in 2015.

Along with the deposits, many Argentine businessmen moved to the neighboring country. The list includes Marcos Galperin, founder of Mercado Libre; Martín Migoya and Guibert Englebienne, from Globant; the agricultural businessman Gustavo Grobocopatel; Alejandro Bulgheroni and producer Gustavo Yankelevich.

With information from Clarín