Mexican exports slow down amid greater fears of recession in the U.S.

Mexican exports slowed in April, amid slower economic growth in the United States and a greater probability of recession in that country, official figures and economic analysts indicated Thursday.

Mexican exports fell by 2.9 percent in April year-on-year to 46.224 billion dollars, according to the monthly report of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

For their part, imports fell by 3.3 percent in the fourth month of the year, to 47.733 billion dollars, added the statement from the autonomous statistics agency.

Thus, Mexico saw a deficit in its April trade balance of 1.509 billion dollars, Inegi said.

In a report issued separately, Grupo Financiero BASE recalled that Mexican exports are “significantly correlated” with U.S. economic activity.

“The deterioration of trade, especially exports, was already expected because U.S. economic growth in the first quarter was lower than expected by the market and that the probability of recession in that country increased,” it explained.

“Going forward, there are downside risks to export growth, mainly due to the probability of recession in the United States,” he added.

Mexico’s trade is oriented toward the United States, its neighbor, and main business partner.

Mexico’s economy, the second largest in Latin America after Brazil, grew 3.1 percent in 2022, down from the 4.7 percent expansion the previous year.

Private analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Mexico (Banxico) estimate that Mexico’s economy will grow by 1.60 percent in 2023.

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