The Central Bank revealed a minor adjustment in Brazil’s economic growth projection for 2023, from 2.29% to 2.31%, a slight increase from the 2.24% estimated a month ago.
Despite this, the end-of-year GDP estimate based on the most recent 28 responses remained at 2.37%.
Projections for 2024 and 2025 stayed relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the 2024 GDP growth estimate from 1.34% to 1.22%, based on the most recent 25 responses.
The inflation projection (IPCA) for 2023 remained at 4.90%, despite the recent acceleration in electricity prices.
It showed a slight increase in the median estimate for 2023 from 4.90% to 4.94%, based on the latest 57 responses.
The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) maintained its IPCA projection for 2024 at 3.4% and 2025 at 3.0%.
For 2024, which has a greater weight in the decisions of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) currently, there was a slight fluctuation in expectations, from 3.86% to 3.87%.
A month ago, the median was 3.89%.
These estimates continue to exceed the central target of 3.0%, indicating an overshoot for the third consecutive year.
The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have forecasted a GDP growth of 2.5% and 2.0% respectively for this year.