Brazil elections 2022: Bolsonaro has advantage over Lula da Silva in three regions; June 17-22

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The electoral survey EXAME/IDEIA released on Thursday, 23, shows that the dispute for the Presidency of the Republic is not equal in the country’s five regions.

In a second-round simulation, President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party – PL) has an advantage over former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party – PT), while the PT leader is ahead in two.

According to the data, Bolsonaro has 59% of voting intentions by residents of the North, and Lula da Silva has 36%. The president comes first in the Midwest, with 44%, and in the South, with 47%. In these regions, Lula da Silva has 41% and 40%, respectively.

The former president has an advantage over Bolsonaro in the Northeast (63% vs. 27%) and the Southeast (46% vs. 44%).

EXAME/IDEIA interviewed 1,500 people between June 17 and 22. The interviews were done by telephone, with calls to both residential landlines and cell phones. The margin of error is three percentage points higher or lower. EXAME/IDEIA is a project that unites EXAME and IDEIA, a research institute specializing in public opinion.

In the general numbers, Lula da Silva would beat Bolsonaro in a second round. The PT candidate has 48% and the current president, 41%. Concerning the electoral survey a month ago, both gained two percentage points in voting intention.

The growth is within the poll’s margin of error and maintains the difference between the two, reached in May this year, which is seven points.

“President Jair Bolsonaro’s reelection fundamentals remain unfavorable. It is very critical the response of voters who think he does not deserve to be re-elected, above 50%. Despite having improved over time, it remains at a high level, showing the difficulty of reelection in the current conjuncture,” says Maurício Moura, founder of IDEIA.

In a first-round simulation, former president Lula da Silva has 45% of voting intentions, and the current president appears with 36%. Ciro Gomes (PDT) has 7%, and Simone Tebet (MDB), 3%.

It is the first EXAME/IDEIA survey since João Doria (PSDB) gave up running for president and decided to support the pre-candidacy of the senator for Mato Grosso do Sul Simone Tebet (MDB), forming a third-way slate, which also includes the Cidadania.

In the poll conducted in May, the former governor of São Paulo scored 2%. It was also decided that Eduardo Leite, former governor of Rio Grande do Sul, would run for reelection.

Maurício Moura, the founder of IDEIA, highlights that Da Silva’s growth in the first round may lead to a definition of the election. “There is a positive movement for former president Lula da Silva in comparison with Bolsonaro, but the most important thing is that we see a greater possibility of the election ending in the first round,” he says.

With information from Exame