Brazil Morning Call for Friday, April 17, 2026
Key Facts
— Today’s Brazil morning call opens with a U.S. equity rally that is rewriting the record books and a ceasefire clock ticking toward its defining moment. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily Brazil Financial Morning Call, covering Latin American financial markets.
— The Nasdaq extended its winning streak to 12 consecutive sessions on Thursday — the longest since July 2009 — closing at a fresh record of 24,102.70 (+0.36%). The S&P 500 rose 0.26% to another ATH of 7,041.28, its second consecutive record close. The Dow added 0.24% to 48,578.72. Dow Transports logged their 16th all-time high of the year. The rally’s catalyst has shifted from earnings (strong Q1 results from TSMC, PepsiCo, Citi) to geopolitics: Trump confirmed a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and declared the Iran war “very close to over,” adding that the next round of in-person negotiations could occur next weekend. Claims fell to 207,000 — the biggest weekly decline since February — dismantling the labor-weakness narrative. Industrial production missed at −0.5% (vs +0.1% cons), the only blemish.
— The Ibovespa continued its healthy consolidation. Chart: O:197,738, H:198,587, L:196,354, C:196,819 (−0.46%). RSI moderated further to 67.72 (MA: 63.44) — exiting overbought territory for the first time since April 9. The USD/BRL held below R$5.00 for a third consecutive session: C:4.9937 (+0.05%), with RSI at 36.47 (MA: 30.59) — still deeply oversold on the MA. The BRL’s structural shift below R$5.00 is confirmed. Bitcoin surged to $74,768 (chart: O:75,172, H:75,172, L:74,571, C:74,768, −0.55%) with RSI at 61.74. Netflix fell 10% after hours on Reed Hastings’ departure announcement despite beating revenue estimates.
— Friday is a lighter day for data: Baker Hughes Rig Count (13:00), CFTC Positioning (15:30), Fed speakers Daly (11:30), Barkin (12:15), Waller (14:00). The real action is the ceasefire clock: 4 days to April 21 expiration. Trump’s signals that talks could resume next weekend are the strongest peace signals since the original ceasefire. If confirmed, the rally extends into next week; if collapsed, the war premium returns overnight. War Day 48.
Where We Left Off THURSDAY, APR 16 — SESSION CLOSE
The Nasdaq’s 12th consecutive winning session is now the longest winning streak for the index since July 2009 — a period when the market was emerging from the financial crisis. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,102.70 (+0.36%), setting its second intraday and closing record in consecutive sessions. The S&P 500 added 0.26% to 7,041.28 — also a fresh ATH and its 8th intraday record of 2026. The Dow rose 0.24% to 48,578.72 in a more restrained move. The market’s breadth showed through Dow Transports, which logged their 16th all-time high of the year, and the Russell 2000, which traded within reach of its first record close since January. However, semiconductors (SOXX) snapped their 11-day streak, an early divergence signal. No single large-cap sector has made a record high — the rally remains a mega-cap tech phenomenon.
The geopolitical narrative took another constructive turn. Trump confirmed a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire — removing a key obstacle that had complicated the U.S.-Iran dialogue (Israel’s ongoing Lebanon strikes were cited by Iran as a ceasefire violation). Trump then declared the Iran war “very close to over” and said the next round of in-person negotiations could take place next weekend. This is the strongest peace signal since the original ceasefire on April 7. If talks resume, the ceasefire’s April 21 expiration becomes a formality rather than a cliff. The market is now pricing the probability of a comprehensive deal, not just a truce extension.
Economic data was mixed but didn’t slow the momentum. Initial claims fell to 207,000 (−11K, the biggest weekly decline since February, below 215K consensus) — a decisive rebuttal of the labor-market softening narrative. The four-week moving average dropped to its lowest since June 2024. But industrial production fell 0.5% in March (missing the +0.1% consensus badly), suggesting the oil shock is now hitting the factory floor. TSMC and PepsiCo both beat on earnings. After the bell, Netflix fell 10% on the surprise departure of founder Reed Hastings and disappointing guidance, despite beating revenue at $12.25B (+16.2% YoY). As covered in yesterday’s Morning Call, the market is now in post-war pricing mode — the question is no longer whether the rally survives, but how far it extends.
Market Snapshot DATA AS OF THU, APR 16 CLOSE
| Indicator | Close / Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 196,819 | −0.46% |
| USD/BRL | R$4.9937 | +0.05% (below R$5) |
| S&P 500 | 7,041 | +0.26% (2nd ATH) |
| Nasdaq | 24,103 | +0.36% (12th win) |
| Dow | 48,579 | +0.24% |
| WTI Crude | ~$93 | Flat (−3% week) |
| Gold | ~$4,840 | +0.3% |
| Bitcoin | $74,768 | −0.55% |
| Claims | 207K | −11K (beat) |
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.02%
185,147.15
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64,866.61
-0.87%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,049,121
-0.29%
2,544.56
+0.40%
59,978.22
-0.31%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,147.15 | -0.02% | +21.85% | 185,188.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
What to Watch FRIDAY CATALYSTS
Friday’s data calendar is light, but the positioning implications are significant. Three Fed speakers — Daly (11:30), Barkin (12:15), and Waller (14:00) — will close out the week’s central bank commentary. The focus: do they acknowledge the cool PPI, strong claims, and war-wind-down signals as shifting the rate calculus? Any hint of a June cut being back on the table would further compress yields and support equities. Baker Hughes Rig Count at 13:00 (prev: 411 oil / 545 total) will show U.S. drilling activity under the new oil price regime.
CFTC positioning data at 15:30 is the week’s hidden catalyst. BRL speculative net positions (prev: +40.1K) will confirm whether the institutional long-BRL trade has expanded alongside the R$5.00 break. Crude spec positions (prev: 202.2K) will show if fast money has started aggressively selling the war premium. Gold specs (prev: 156.3K) will reveal the rate-cut trade’s conviction. These positioning shifts often precede the next directional move.
Netflix’s 10% after-hours drop will test the Nasdaq’s streak at Friday’s open — the 12-day run faces its toughest challenge with NFLX, a $300B+ market cap name, gapping down. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire removes one of Iran’s chief negotiating grievances. Trump’s statement that the next round of talks could happen “next weekend” means the ceasefire’s April 21 expiration may be overtaken by events — if talks are set for Saturday/Sunday, the market enters Monday with a live deal catalyst rather than expiration risk.
Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS
The Ibovespa consolidated for a second session. Chart: O:197,738, H:198,587, L:196,354, C:196,819 (−0.46%). RSI moderated to 67.72 (MA: 63.44) — now below the 70 overbought threshold for the first time since April 9, a constructive reset. MACD histogram at 4,104 (MACD: 2,992.89, signal: 1,111.50) — the histogram continues to expand even as price consolidates, suggesting underlying momentum remains intact. The 200-day SMA at 158,454 is 24% below current price.
Resistance: 196,819 (Thursday close) → 198,587 (Thursday intraday high) → 198,657 (ATH close) → 199,355 (cycle intraday ATH) → 200,000 (psychological milestone — deferred).
Support: 194,699 (mid-Bollinger upper) → 192,620 (prior ATH cluster) → 189,909 (mid-band) → 188,446 (SMA vicinity) → 187,197 / 187,197 (SMA cluster) → 186,335 (20-day) → 174,959 (lower Bollinger) → 158,454 (200-day).
Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.75% · NEXT MEETING: APR 28-29
The BCB enters the pre-decision period (11 days to April 28) with the most favorable backdrop since the war began. USD/BRL below R$5.00 for a third day. WTI at $93 and falling. Claims at 207K (strong labor). PPI services flat. Trump signaling the war is “very close to over.” The April 28 meeting should deliver a unanimous hold at 14.75% with forward guidance that explicitly acknowledges improved inflation dynamics and leaves the door open for a June assessment. If weekend talks produce a framework deal, the BCB may even strengthen the dovish signal.
The ECB held rates Thursday as expected at 2.75%. Lagarde’s tone was cautious — acknowledging the energy shock’s pass-through while noting core inflation’s gradual descent. The ECB hold strengthens the BCB’s hand: if the world’s third-largest central bank can be patient despite European wholesale inflation at 4.1%, the BCB at 14.75% with a stronger BRL can afford patience too. The rate differential between Brazil (14.75%) and the Eurozone (2.75%) at 12 percentage points is the widest in the G20 — the carry trade’s gravitational pull remains overwhelming.
Economic Calendar FRIDAY, APR 17
| Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-Market | Italian Trade Balance (04:00, cons: 3.83B). EU Current Account (04:00, cons: 29.8B). EU Trade Balance (05:00, cons: 11.7B). China FDI (06:00). IMF Meetings Day 5 (final). India FX Reserves/Bank Loan Growth (07:30). BoE’s Pill speaks (08:00). European trade and current account data wall | MEDIUM |
| 08:15–08:30 | Canada Housing Starts (08:15, cons: 258K, prev: 250.9K). Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (08:30). Light domestic data — no major U.S. economic releases today | LOW |
| 11:30–14:00 | Fed speakers: Daly (11:30), Barkin (12:15), Waller (14:00) — three speakers to close the week. Post-PPI, post-claims, post-war-wind-down commentary. Any rate-cut signal moves markets. German Buba VP Buch (10:30) | HIGH |
| 13:00–15:30 | Baker Hughes Rig Count (13:00, prev: 411 oil / 545 total — drilling response to $93 oil). CFTC Positioning (15:30 — BRL spec net positions prev: +40.1K, Crude spec prev: 202.2K, Gold spec prev: 156.3K). Week-end positioning data for the ceasefire countdown weekend | HIGH |
Latin America Markets THURSDAY CLOSE / CHART DATA
| Index | Close | Change | RSI (14) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 196,819 | −0.46% | 67.72 | Bullish |
| IPC (Mexico) | 69,095 | −0.78% | 52.85 | Neutral |
| COLCAP (Colombia) | 2,333 | +0.35% | 54.35 | Neutral |
| IPSA (Chile) | 11,477 | +1.44% | 70.33 | Overbought |
| MERVAL (Argentina) | 2,923,833 | +0.20% | 54.56 | Neutral |
Chile’s IPSA surged 1.44% to 11,477, breaking into overbought territory at RSI 70.33 — a remarkable move for the copper-heavy index which is now the second LatAm index (after Brazil) to cross the 70 RSI threshold during the ceasefire rally. China’s Q1 GDP beat at 5.0% is the direct catalyst — Chile’s copper exports to China provide the fundamental link. Colombia’s COLCAP recovered 0.35% to 2,333 after Wednesday’s selloff. Mexico’s IPC slipped 0.78% to 69,095, continuing its underperformance. Argentina’s MERVAL edged up 0.20% to 2,923,833 — still struggling below the 3 million barrier. The Ibovespa’s RSI reset to 67.72 (from a peak of 73.22 earlier in the week) is the healthiest signal in LatAm: the bullish structure holds, overbought pressure has been released, and the 200,000 target remains live for when the next catalyst emerges. As covered in the latest LATAM Pulse, the ceasefire clock determines next week’s regional direction.
Commodities & FX KEY MOVES
Oil held near $93 WTI, down 3% for the week. Brent hovered above $99. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire removes one of Iran’s stated grievances and opens the path for the next round of U.S.-Iran negotiations. Trump’s “very close to over” language is the most bullish signal for oil bears since the original ceasefire. If weekend talks materialize and produce a framework, WTI targets $85-88. If they collapse, the April 21 expiration sends crude back above $100.
USD/BRL held below R$5.00 for a third consecutive session at R$4.9937 (chart: O:4.9912, H:4.9937, L:4.9283, C:4.9937, +0.05%). RSI at 36.47 (MA: 30.59) — the pair remains deeply oversold. MACD at −0.0160 (signal: −0.0467, MACD: −0.0627) — bearish momentum (dollar-negative) persists. The intraday low of R$4.9283 was a fresh war-era trough. CFTC BRL positioning data tonight will confirm if institutional longs have expanded — prev: +40.1K. If spec longs have grown materially, the carry trade’s conviction is hardening.
Bitcoin consolidated near $74,768 (chart: O:75,172, H:75,172, L:74,571, C:74,768, −0.55%). RSI at 61.74 (MA: 57.66) — healthy momentum above the $73K support zone. Gold held near $4,840, supported by the dollar weakness and rate-cut expectations from the cool PPI. The combination of equity ATHs + gold near highs + BRL at 3-year lows reflects a market that is simultaneously pricing risk-on (equities), safe-haven (gold), and carry (BRL) — a rare alignment.
Risk Map BULL vs BEAR
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| The ceasefire is morphing into a deal — Trump’s “very close to over” is the strongest signal yet — Israel-Lebanon ceasefire removes Iran’s key grievance. Next-weekend talks are being arranged. Vance described “a lot of progress.” The market is pricing not just a truce extension but a comprehensive framework. If talks produce a deal, oil drops to $80-85, the inflation narrative resets, and global rate-cut cycles accelerate. For Brazil, the carry trade intensifies.
The Nasdaq’s 12-day streak (since 2009) + S&P at 7,041 = institutional conviction — This is not retail FOMO. The 12.6% earnings growth, AI capex spending (Broadcom-Meta 1 GW), semiconductor ATHs, and Dow Transport ATHs reflect real economic momentum. Russell 2000 near its first ATH since January would confirm the broadening. Goldman’s 7,600 target is within reach. Ibovespa’s RSI reset from 73 to 67 is the healthiest setup for the next leg — The two-day consolidation reduced overbought pressure without breaking the bullish trend. BRL below R$5.00 for three days confirms structural strength. The 200,000 target is deferred, not cancelled. A deal-fueled rally next week could deliver it. |
Industrial production −0.5% shows the war is hitting the real economy — The factory floor is contracting. Manufacturing production missed. The Beige Book showed amber signals. GDP Q4 was 0.5%. The equity market is pricing post-war euphoria while the economy is still absorbing the shock. The divergence between S&P 500 ATHs and weakening production data is widening.
Netflix −10% after hours will test the 12-day streak — A $30B+ market cap drop in NFLX could drag Nasdaq futures lower and snap the historic run. If the streak breaks on a Friday, weekend risk-off positioning could amplify the selloff. Semiconductors already snapped their 11-day streak Thursday. The breadth is narrowing. 4 days to ceasefire expiration — “very close to over” ≠ over — Trump has used maximalist language before. The nuclear issue, Strait control, reparations, and Lebanon demands remain unresolved. Weekend talks are planned but not confirmed. If Iran rejects terms again and the ceasefire lapses Tuesday, the entire week’s gains are at risk. The market is pricing a deal at 80%+ probability while the actual probability may be 50-60%. Position for the downside scenario into the weekend — the asymmetry favors caution over complacency. |
Positioning BOTTOM LINE
Key Facts
— Week 7 of the war ends with the most bullish backdrop since the conflict began. The S&P 500 at 7,041 is a new all-time high. The Nasdaq at 24,103 is a new all-time high, posted on a 12-day winning streak — the longest since 2009. Oil is at $93 and falling. The BRL is below R$5.00 for a third day. Claims fell. PPI services were flat. China’s GDP beat. And Trump says the war is “very close to over” with a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire removing the key side-conflict. The market has fully repriced the war from catastrophe to temporary disruption — and is now pricing the peace dividend.
— The Ibovespa’s two-day consolidation from 198,657 to 196,819 (RSI from 73 to 67) is exactly the reset the index needed. The bullish structure is intact: BRL below R$5.00, 14.75% carry, commodity demand confirmed by China Q1 GDP, and a ceasefire trending toward a deal. The 200,000 target is deferred to next week’s narrative arc — if weekend talks produce a framework, the index opens Monday with a direct path to the milestone. If talks fail, 192,000-194,000 provides support.
— The weekend is the fulcrum. Pakistan is arranging second-round talks. Trump says they could happen next weekend. The ceasefire expires April 21 — four days away. Netflix’s −10% after hours will test the Nasdaq streak. Three Fed speakers will close the rate-path commentary. CFTC positioning data will reveal whether the institutional BRL long is expanding. Into the weekend, the calculus is binary: deal or no deal. Position accordingly — the carry trade remains the core holding, energy hedges remain prudent, and the R$5.00 level on BRL is now the line that separates the war era from the post-war era. We are four days from finding out which side we land on.
RT Staff Reporters · This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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