India’s recent halt on sugar exports has bolstered Brazil’s sugar industry, already in a robust position.
This anticipated move had already been a factor supporting sugar prices, influencing sugarcane industries in Brazil’s Center-South region to focus on sugar production for the 2023/24 harvest.
The primary impact will be felt in the mid to long term. For the short term, mills have little room to gain from India’s decision.
Firstly, the production “mix” has been sugar-focused from the season’s start in April due to its higher returns.
Also, most of the anticipated sugar production for this season has fixed and hedged prices.
“Everyone is maximizing sugar output,” noted Felipe Vicchiato, CFO and Investor Relations Director at São Martinho, a major player in Brazil.
For 2023/24, the company aims to process 21.5 million tons of sugarcane, a 7.4% rise from the previous cycle.
Sugar production is expected to jump by 14.4% to 1.38 million tons, while ethanol production may see a 5.1% increase.
Market Response
Following the news of India’s export suspension starting in October, sugar futures contracts experienced a nearly 2% increase in the New York exchange.
São Martinho’s stock price also rose by 7.6% with this confirmation.
Other Key Players
Shares of Raízen and Jalles, significant industry players, also experienced growth.
Jalles, the leading Brazilian organic sugar exporter, announced plans to invest in a new sugar factory at Santa Vitória, Minas Gerais.
Future Industry Outlook
Annelise Izumi, an analyst at Itaú BBA, emphasized that the global sugar supply-demand scenario is becoming tighter, especially with India’s ethanol blending ambitions and weather issues.
India’s expected production is 31.7 million tons, a 3.4% decline from 2022/23.
Meanwhile, Brazil forecasts a 10.1% growth to 40.5 million tons.
Global production is projected at 192.4 million tons, with Brazil, India, and Thailand being top exporters.
Leonardo Alencar, an analyst at XP Investimentos, believes that while Brazil’s production surge compensates for India’s dip, the environment is ripe for new investments.
Although prices might not have soared due to the recent news, future price trends show an upward trajectory.
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