Brazil: Bolsonaro’s possible ineligibility divides his PL party, which does not rule out a plan B

By Rodolfo Costa

The Liberal Party (PL) is divided over the political future of former president Jair Bolsonaro, the honorary president of the legend, due to the possibility of ineligibility.

One part of the party believes it is unlikely that he will lose his political rights because it would be a political decision and very unpopular with society.

Other members of the PL, however, believe that, although “unfair”, a conviction to remove Bolsonaro’s political rights would be “possible”.

In one of the most advanced lawsuits against Bolsonaro in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the Electoral Prosecutor’s Office argued that the former president should be ineligible for eight years for “affecting the confidence of part of the population in the legitimacy” of the 2022 elections, due to the criticism he made to the electronic ballot boxes.

The lawsuit investigates whether there was an abuse of political power and misuse of the media in last year’s presidential race.

Bolsonaro is the target of 15 other lawsuits at the TSE that also have the potential to render him ineligible.

On the side of those who do not believe that the former president can become ineligible is federal deputy Bibo Nunes (PL-RS), leader of the party in the House.

He believes that there is no legal basis that justifies the loss of political rights.

“It would be an unprecedented radicalism and a purely political decision, nothing technical, which would only create more instability in the country,” he says, citing a statement by former Justice [of the STF] Marco Aurélio Melo that making Bolsonaro ineligible would be an extreme attitude.

“It is to want to sow even more the climate of disunity in Brazil, of latent revanchism. It would be very bad for the country. Isn’t it enough for [President] Lula, who is sowing hatred and revenge?”

The analysis made by another wing of the LP is that the possibility is real, given the different actions and investigations being carried out against him in the courts.

The perception among these members is that it is almost “inevitable” that the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will validate the ineligibility and the Federal Supreme Court (STF) will ratify it.

However, two leaders who think so understand that “it would not be fair” but possible.

The hypothesis of Bolsonaro’s ineligibility is also being debated in the PL dome.

People close to the party’s national president, Valdemar Costa Neto, think that the issue has cooled down, even though the Electoral Prosecutor General (PGE) has defended the former president’s ineligibility for eight years in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).

But leaders are divided about the political future of the former president, considering the municipal elections of 2024 and the general elections in 2026.

PL DOES NOT RULE OUT “PLAN B” IN A SCENARIO OF INELIGIBLE BOLSONARO

With Bolsonaro ineligible or not, the PL will not give up its political-electoral project until 2026 and understands that he will have an equally important role in the municipal elections.

The party’s goal is to elect more than a thousand mayors and to affiliate and elect conservative female leaders to expand the capillarity of the party throughout the country and pave the way for greater political muscle for the election of parliamentarians, governors, and the president.

Because of this, the LP is still informally discussing names that could be a “plan B” for Bolsonaro, with the agreement of the former president himself.

The short-term goal is for Bolsonaro to be a solid canvasser for the PL to elect mayors.

In the medium term, it is to position himself as a possible candidate for the presidential elections, even though some in the party believe that he may not be able to run even if he is qualified.

If Bolsonaro has his political rights suspended by the TSE, he wants to participate in the process of choosing the candidate who will lead the party project and influence the choice of a successor.

While in the United States, the former president authorized his trusted interlocutors and allies to conduct the scenario analysis process and the possible viability of a “plan B”.

Before moving forward with an alternative name to Bolsonaro to lead the right, however, the PL is committed to appealing to the STF to overturn any TSE decision or even a possible monocratic decision by a Justice of the Supreme Court.

As the honorable president of the party and an important canvasser, the internal discourse is not to abandon the former president and to exhaust the possible legal resources and strategies.

WHICH NAMES BOLSONARO AND THE PL CAN SUPPORT IN CASE OF INELIGIBILITY

The PL and Bolsonaro have some options to launch the dispute if he loses his political rights.

The option for a relative of the former president is being discussed in private conversations inside the party.

Still, only the former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro is mentioned with some weight of greater participation and influence in the electoral scenario.

Michelle has already been mentioned as a possible candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, but she rejects the idea.

The most likely scenario for her within the party is to have her as a possible candidate for Congress or senator.

In the presidential race, having her as vice-president on a slate with a candidate supported by Bolsonaro is an idea that appeals to some in the party.

Among the non-PL members, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), is a name that pleases the former president, part of his family, and allies.

So far, his administration’s conduct is not unanimous among Bolsonaro’s allies, but he is still seen as a potential name to become viable.

The hypothesis that Tarcísio will have a good government in São Paulo gives him credibility for the presidential race, but, at the same time, some leaders in the PL believe that, since it is the largest electoral college, it may be more strategic for him to seek reelection to maintain an ally in the São Paulo government until 2030.

Those who think so advocate that the party and other allied legends from the conservative camp support the candidacy of the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo).

Zema was invited to join the PL by Valdemar Costa Neto himself and also by the party’s federal bench, which, in March, reinforced the invitation.

Party leadership in Minas Gerais states that the doors are “100% open” but clarifies that he has not committed to deciding the party’s future in 2026.

According to the source, Zema thanked him but assured him that this was not the time to decide on this and that there was still a long time before the presidential elections.

The analysis in PL, however, is that Zema is a name with real chances of joining the party and running for an elective position in 2026 because he had already been affiliated with the party before migrating to Novo.

Another name mentioned in informal conversations in the PL dome is that of Senator Rogério Marinho (RN), leader of the opposition.

The political trajectory built from the Bolsonaro administration to the Senate presidential race this year is seen with good eyes in the party.

The fact that he is from the Northeast is an additional encouragement to those who defend him in the presidential race.

For the 2022 elections, Marinho was even probed as Bolsonaro’s vice president.

However, those closest to the parliamentarian credit his price in the “betting exchange” among potential candidates to the prominence he has had as opposition senator and to the fact that he is from the PL.

Party contacts also believe he would be in a good position to join Zema, Tarcísio, or even Rio Grande do Sul governor Eduardo Leite (PSDB), who expressed interest in a union with the governors of Minas Gerais and São Paulo.

With information from Gazeta do Povo