Bolivia’s Factories Shrink in 2025 as Roadblocks and Fuel Shortages Bite
Key Points
- Bolivia’s industry chamber says industrial GDP contracted 1% in 2025, while overall GDP is projected to fall at least 0.5%.
- Producers cite fuel shortages, an expensive parallel-dollar market, contraband, and repeated road blockades that interrupt supply chains.
- Draft laws on investment, anti-smuggling, and anti-blockades show a business sector betting on predictability over pressure politics.
Bolivia is closing 2025 with its manufacturing base moving backward. The Cámara Nacional de Industrias reports the industrial share of GDP shrank 1% this year, a warning in a landlocked economy where road logistics shape prices and exports.
The immediate constraints are concrete. Fuel shortages have repeatedly disrupted production schedules and freight. Companies reliant on imported inputs or machinery say the parallel-dollar price has become the operative benchmark, lifting costs and delaying maintenance and upgrades.
Behind that sits a confidence shock. The CNI argues investment has weakened in both the public and private spheres. It cites state budget execution of roughly 36% through September, reading it as delayed works and slower procurement.
Private capital, it says, stays cautious when transport can be cut and import payments become uncertain. Trade data suggests limited room to grow.
Industrial exports rose 3.33% to $2.884 billion, but remain far below the roughly $7 billion posted in 2022. Imports that feed production fell too: capital-goods purchases slipped 0.72% and raw-material imports dropped 16%, tightening capacity.
The flashpoint is conflict that shuts highways. The CNI says 2025 saw about 200 road blockades, estimating losses of $11 million per day for industry and $50–$60 million per day for the economy when blockades occur.
For factories, the chain reaction is predictable: inputs fail to arrive, deliveries miss deadlines, and cash flow dries up.
In response, the chamber says it has advanced four draft laws to the legislature and executive, including an investment law, tougher measures against smuggling and counterfeiting, and an anti-blockade bill.
It also wants stronger agencies overseeing food safety, medicines regulation, and tax collection. For expats, the stakes are practical—availability, prices, and travel reliability.
For investors, the lesson is blunt: growth hinges less on ideas than on open roads, stable fuel supply, and enforceable rules.
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