Argentina Markets: Merval & the Peso — July 4, 2026
Argentina · Markets
—YPF ruled the tape at +2.1% on $3m turnover YPFD was both a top gainer and the single most-traded name, drawing more money than the next two names combined as triple-digit-oil optimism and Argentina’s $25bn Vaca Muerta RIGI filing kept the energy champion the market’s focal point.
—Financials, not energy, delivered the biggest percentage pops BYMA (+2.3%) and Banco Macro/BMA (+2.1%) topped the domestic leaderboard alongside YPFD, a sign that money is rotating back into rate-sensitive banks as reform momentum builds — even if their turnover trailed YPF.
—The index sits 10.8% below its 52-week high and the peso near the band’s floor The ARGT proxy closed 91.45 (+0.37%), still down 10.8% from its 102.57 high, while USD/ARS at 1,488 is just 0.3% off its weakest-ever 1,492 — the tension foreign buyers must price.
| Market | Last | Day |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Argentina (ARGT proxy) | 91.45 | +0.37% |
| S&P 500 | 7,483 | +0.00% |
| USD/ARS | 1,488 | -0.07% |
Session at a glance
| Instrument | Close | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARGT (Argentina proxy) | 91.45 | +0.37% | 10.8% below 52w high of 102.57 |
| USD/ARS | 1,488 | -0.07% | 0.3% from weakest-ever 1,492 |
| YPFD | — | +2.1% | Top gainer and turnover leader ($3m) |
| BYMA | — | +2.3% | Biggest domestic percentage gain |
| BMA (Banco Macro) | — | +2.1% | Bank rotation leader |
| LOMA (Loma Negra) | — | -0.3% | Among few domestic losers |
| MELI (MercadoLibre) | — | -0.3% | Slipped despite tech strength elsewhere |
| S&P 500 | 7,483 | +0.00% | Flat Wall Street backdrop |
Most-traded names – where the money went
| Stock | Move | Turnover | Why it moved |
|---|---|---|---|
| YPFD | +2.1% | $3m | Vaca Muerta / oil optimism; $25bn RIGI filing keeps it the focal point |
| SPY | +1.6% | $2m | US S&P 500 ETF; passive dollar-hedge demand via CEDEARs |
| GGAL | +0.8% | $1m | Grupo Galicia rides the bank rotation, but lags peers |
| VIST | +1.7% | $1m | Vista Energy leveraged to the same shale thesis as YPF |
| PAMP | +0.9% | $1m | Pampa Energía; utilities/energy tailwind |
| MSFT | +1.1% | $1m | Microsoft CEDEAR; local dollar-proxy buying |
| QQQ | +0.9% | $1m | Nasdaq-100 ETF; foreign-equity hedge demand |
| NVDA | +1.5% | $1m | Nvidia CEDEAR rides the global AI-chip rally |
01YPF owns the order book
The single most striking fact of the July 3 session was concentration: YPFD rose +2.1% on roughly $3m of turnover — more than any other name and double the flow into the next-busiest ticker.
Argentine equities, tracked by the ARGT proxy, closed 91.45, up +0.37% on the day but still 10.8% below their 52-week high of 102.57 within a 66.80-102.57 range. That leaves the market in recovery mode rather than breakout mode.
On the domestic board the pattern held: the Merval extended its bounce, having climbed 1.13% the prior session as buyers returned near support and the reform story stayed intact.
02Banks pop, energy pays the bills
The biggest percentage moves came from financials and the exchange itself — BYMA +2.3%, BMA (Banco Macro) +2.1% and IBIT +2.5% — while YPFD +2.1% was the only heavyweight to top both the gainer list and the turnover list.
Where the money actually went tells the real story: after YPFD’s $3m, the flow ran through SPY (+1.6%, $2m) and a cluster of $1m names — GGAL +0.8%, VIST +1.7%, PAMP +0.9%, MSFT +1.1%, QQQ +0.9% and NVDA +1.5%. The presence of SPY, QQQ, MSFT and NVDA reflects local investors using CEDEARs as a dollar hedge and a way to ride the global AI-chip rally.
The losers were shallow and few — AAPL -0.4%, LOMA -0.3% and MELI -0.3% — underlining that this was a broad, low-conviction grind higher rather than a rush for the exits.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Company IntelligenceMarkets: Merval & the Peso — July 4, 2026 — the full investor dossier
Argentina — Live Market Board
+1.26%
174,070
+0.74%
67,060
-0.02%
10,821
+99.04%
3,196,900
+1.26%
2,295.72
+1.57%
55,809.71
+0.30%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,196,900 | +1.26% | +53.83% | 3,157,091 | 3,201,527 | 3,157,091 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,488 | -0.07% | +21.06% | 1,489 | 1,489 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 71,575 | +2.14% | +79.05% | 70,075 | 71,675 | 70,100 | 62,840 |
| GGAL | 7,975 | +0.82% | +27.32% | 7,910 | 7,995 | 7,890 | 238,394 |
| PAMPA | 5,135 | +0.88% | +42.64% | 5,090 | 5,200 | 5,055 | 304,925 |
| TXAR | 665.00 | +0.23% | +2.79% | 663.50 | 671.00 | 654.50 | 1,238,834 |
| ALUAR | 993.00 | +0.20% | +36.78% | 991.00 | 998.50 | 980.00 | 216,615 |
| TGS | 9,195 | +2.51% | +38.06% | 8,970 | 9,225 | 8,970 | 43,815 |
| CEPU | 2,323 | +0.69% | +60.76% | 2,307 | 2,338 | 2,219 | 206,244 |
| MIRGOR | 17,300 | +2.82% | -17.42% | 16,825 | 17,400 | 16,725 | 1,569 |
| COME | 42.28 | +1.25% | -22.06% | 41.76 | 43.90 | 41.72 | 3,097,746 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,673 | -0.34% | +30.00% | 3,685 | 3,750 | 3,615 | 153,088 |
| BYMA | 309.25 | +2.32% | +56.38% | 302.25 | 310.00 | 303.00 | 1,699,994 |
| TELECOM ARG | 3,990 | +0.50% | +80.54% | 3,970 | 4,098 | 3,950 | 15,369 |
| GLOBANT | 32.51 | +3.57% | -64.56% | 31.39 | 33.19 | 31.79 | 2,140,955 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,763 | +1.22% | -29.86% | 1,742 | 1,782 | 1,749 | 407,805 |
03Oil, reform and a peso at the floor
The energy bid rests on hard catalysts: YPF’s $25bn Vaca Muerta RIGI filing — 1,152 wells and a 240,000 bpd plateau by 2032 — is the largest incentive-regime filing to date, and Milei’s proposed ‘Super RIGI’ targeting $1bn-plus AI, semiconductor and lithium projects sits before Congress. Passage would hand the market a fresh reason to climb.
The currency is the counterweight: USD/ARS closed 1,488, essentially flat on the day but just 0.3% from its weakest-ever 1,492, so the peso is pinned to the soft end of its managed band even as reserves have hit multi-year highs. For a foreign investor, that FX asymmetry caps the upside on unhedged peso returns.
The read-through: with the index 10.8% off its high and money concentrating in oil and dollar-proxy CEDEARs, this is a reform-and-energy trade with a currency asterisk — own the Vaca Muerta and bank-rotation stories, but respect the band.
What to Watch
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did YPF stand out on July 3?
Where did the money concentrate?
How is the index positioned versus its 52-week range?
What happened to the peso?
What should a foreign investor watch?
Reported for The Rio Times — Argentina Markets. Filed Saturday, July 4, 2026 — 00:08 BRT. Sources: EODHD, CNBC, Reuters. Previously: July 3 · July 2
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