Argentina’s Factories Had Their Worst Month in Over a Year
Key Facts
- — What happened. Argentine factory output fell 4.9% in the year to July, the statistics agency said.
- — How big a drop. Month on month, industry fell 5.0% and construction 4.6%, both seasonally adjusted.
- — The catch. Construction is still up 1.7% so far this year. Industry is down 2.6%.
- — The odd part. Stocks rose 1.4% the same day and country risk stayed below 500 points.
- — Who it hits. Twelve of sixteen industrial branches shrank against the same month last year.
- — What comes next. The Senate is debating a central bank overhaul the government wants passed quickly.
Argentina’s statistics agency published two bad numbers on the same afternoon. The stock market spent the day going up.
Read the two together and you get the shape of this economy. Financial markets are calm, and the part of it that makes things is not.
The Numbers
INDEC, Argentina’s national statistics institute, released both figures on 8 September. The reference month is July.
Manufacturing output fell 4.9% against July last year. Against June, seasonally adjusted, it fell 5.0%.
Construction activity fell 4.5% year on year. Month on month, seasonally adjusted, it fell 4.6%.
Twelve of sixteen industrial divisions were down against the same month a year earlier.
Over the first seven months, industry is down 2.6% against the same period of 2025.
Live Market IntelligenceArgentina — Live Market Board
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Argentina — Live Market Board
+1.36%
187,366.84
+1.20%
65,010.39
+0.44%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,075,982
+1.36%
2,569.47
+0.15%
59,620.96
+1.05%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,075,982 | +1.36% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| YPF | 7,810 | +0.26% | +72.84% | 7,790 | 7,850 | 7,600 | 1,763,858 |
| GGAL | 6,980 | -0.78% | +1.82% | 7,035 | 7,115 | 6,920 | 1,564,062 |
| PAMPA | 5,115 | +0.69% | +26.70% | 5,080 | 5,140 | 5,000 | 721,190 |
| TXAR | 747.50 | -2.35% | +18.67% | 765.50 | 770.00 | 742.50 | 771,892 |
| ALUAR | 938.00 | -1.21% | +29.83% | 949.50 | 951.00 | 932.50 | 135,426 |
| TGS | 8,870 | -0.17% | +15.05% | 8,885 | 9,075 | 8,720 | 143,546 |
| CEPU | 2,156 | +1.84% | +28.36% | 2,117 | 2,165 | 2,086 | 404,146 |
| MIRGOR | 1,650 | -1.20% | -92.90% | 1,670 | 1,670 | 1,635 | 20,877 |
| COME | 40.93 | -0.73% | -30.47% | 41.23 | 41.60 | 40.50 | 4,258,884 |
| LOMA NEGRA | 3,130 | +0.08% | +5.80% | 3,128 | 3,205 | 3,090 | 182,992 |
| BYMA | 275.00 | -1.70% | +35.14% | 279.75 | 282.50 | 272.00 | 1,409,575 |
| TELECOM ARG | 4,233 | -0.70% | +55.19% | 4,263 | 4,335 | 4,160 | 31,896 |
| GLOBANT | 38.10 | -2.26% | -49.65% | 38.98 | 38.70 | 36.77 | 793,552 |
| MERCADOLIBRE | 1,870 | -3.59% | -20.71% | 1,940 | 1,927 | 1,870 | 329,640 |
What the Sixteen-Month Line Does and Does Not Mean
Local coverage called this industry’s worst monthly fall in sixteen months. On the industrial series that holds.
The last worse month was March 2025, when output fell 5.8%. That is sixteen months back.
For construction the same framing is wrong, and it understates the case. Nothing worse than 4.6% appears since October 2024.
That makes it a twenty-one month low rather than a sixteen-month one. Two different series were folded into one headline.
There is a second reason to keep them apart. Construction is still ahead for the year, and industry is not.
The Market Went the Other Way
The S&P Merval index rose 1.36% on 8 September, usually reported as 1.4%. Energy stocks led it.
Oil trading near US$99 a barrel was the driver, on tension in the Strait of Hormuz.
Country risk, the extra yield investors demand over US Treasuries, closed at 494 basis points. That is below the 500 mark.
One nuance gets dropped. The measure rose slightly that day, and held under 500 rather than falling towards it.
So the two stories are not in contradiction. Financial assets are reacting to oil and to the election calendar, not to July factory output.
Who Is Calling for a Change of Course
One outlet reported that economists close to the government are now asking for policy changes. Treat that carefully.
The named voices include a former central bank vice-president from a previous administration. He is not a government ally.
A second name was described as close to the governing party but is in fact a markets journalist. That description looks like an error.
Better-sourced criticism came from analysts who have been critical all along. One called the sawtooth decline the new normal in a stagnant economy.
President Javier Milei answered the question in advance on 2 September. Asked to loosen monetary and fiscal policy, he said no.
What the Senate Is Voting On
Senate committees opened debate this week on two bills the lower house already passed. Both are central to the government’s programme.
The first rewrites the central bank’s charter. It narrows the mandate to preserving the value of the peso.
Employment and equitable social development would come out of that mandate. Direct and indirect financing of the Treasury would be banned outright.
Removing the bank’s president or board would need grave cause and a two-thirds majority in both chambers.
The second bill is a tax amnesty called Inocencia Fiscal II. It targets undeclared savings held outside the banking system.
The lower house passed the central bank reform on 26 August by 144 votes to 102. The government wants both through before the 2027 budget debate.
The Peso, and What the Figures Convert To
The wholesale exchange rate was 1,512 pesos to the US dollar on 8 September. That is the central bank’s own published rate.
Retail rates at Banco Nación were 1,480 to buy and 1,530 to sell. The parallel rate was a little above both.
Those gaps are small by recent Argentine standards. That itself is part of the calm in financial markets.
Conversions in this article use 1,512 pesos to the dollar, the central bank rate for 8 September 2026.
The Falklands Dispute Running Alongside
On the same day the government announced sanctions against fifteen more individuals and companies over Falklands oil.
That takes the total to sixty. The first forty-five were named in early September.
The legal basis is a 2011 law covering hydrocarbon work in the North Malvinas Basin under British licences.
The fifteen new names have not been published. The announcement came through the presidency’s social media account.
One comparison circulating this week does not survive checking. An analyst said the Sea Lion field equals about 1% of Vaca Muerta.
On production the ratio is nearer 8 or 9%, and on reserves it is low single digits. Treat it as rhetoric, not a statistic.
Frequently Asked Questions
How far did Argentine industry fall?
Manufacturing output was down 4.9% in the year to July and 5.0% against June, seasonally adjusted. Twelve of sixteen divisions shrank.
Is construction in the same position?
Not quite. Construction fell 4.5% year on year, but is still up 1.7% over the first seven months of 2026.
Why did the stock market rise on the same day?
The Merval gained 1.36% on energy shares, with oil near US$99 a barrel. Country risk closed at 494 basis points.
What is the Senate debating?
A rewrite of the central bank’s charter and a tax amnesty called Inocencia Fiscal II. Both passed the lower house in late August.
Sources: INDEC, industrial production report, INDEC, construction activity report, Ámbito, the sixteen-month framing, El Cronista, the Merval and country risk, Parlamentario, the Senate committee schedule, Infobae, the lower house vote on the two bills, La Nación, the Falklands sanctions list, Banco Central de la República Argentina, exchange rates
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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