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Africa Intelligence Brief — Friday, February 13, 2026
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February 13, 2026
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14 min read
What Matters Today
Read about Africa Intelligence Brief — Friday, February 13, 2026 on The Rio Times.
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Daily Edition · Friday, February 13, 2026
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Covering Feb 13
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What matters today
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1 Italy–Africa Summit opens in Addis Ababa — Meloni convenes second edition on African soil for first time; reviews Mattei Plan progress (€1.3–1.4bn in projects); summit coincides with AU week; Meloni to address AU Assembly as guest of honour on Saturday
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2 SONA 2026 fallout dominates South Africa — Ramaphosa deploys SANDF to Western Cape and Gauteng; declares FMD national disaster; announces National Water Crisis Committee; SONA debate begins today; JSE falls 1% on commodity pullback
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3 Ethiopian military builds up near Tigray as AU Summit opens — ENDF redeploying forces from Amhara and Oromia toward Tigray since Feb 7; UN rights chief warns of “highly volatile” situation; Abiy hosts AU heads of state dinner tonight amid own escalating crisis
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4 39th AU Assembly opens tomorrow — Ndayishimiye set to assume rotating chairmanship; Sudan FM lobbies for reinstatement at AU Peace and Security Council; Angola proposes Feb 18 DRC ceasefire; theme: Water Security and Climate Resilience
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01
\nMarket Snapshot
\nIntraday Feb 13
\nMarket Snapshot
\nIntraday Feb 13
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| PAIR / INDEX | LEVEL | DAY CHG | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| JSE All Share | ~120,584 | -1.3% | ▼ commodity pullback weighs; gold miners lead losses |
| JSE Top 40 | ~112,558 | -1.5% | ▼ resource heavyweights drag; AngloGold, Gold Fields down |
| USD/ZAR | ~16.02 | +0.4% | ▼ rand weakens on commodity retreat; strong US data |
| NGN/USD | ~1,530 | Flat | — naira holds recent range; CBN intervention steady |
| KES/USD | ~128.5 | Flat | — shilling steady; CBK reserves at ~$9.1bn |
| Brent Crude | $69.68/bbl | +0.4% | ▲ Iran sanctions support; African producers benefit |
| Gold | $5,020/oz | +0.6% | ▲ modest recovery after sharp Jan 31 crash from $5,505 |
| Cocoa (ICE) | ~$8,900/t | +1.2% | ▲ supply concerns persist; West Africa crop under stress |
| SA 10Y Bond | ~8.26% | +3bp | ▲ yields edge up; SONA spending pledges weigh |
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02
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
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\nCritical
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\nCritical
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Sudan – Civil War
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RSF pushing into Kordofan after consolidating Darfur; drone strikes killing dozens weekly; SAF broke sieges on Kadugli and Dilling but RSF counterattacks persist; 90+ civilian drone deaths late Jan–Feb 6; famine declared in Kadugli and North Darfur; 14 million displaced; Sudan FM at AU lobbies for reinstatement
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\nCritical
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\nCritical
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DRC – Eastern Congo War
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M23 commissioned 7,500+ new fighters; clashes continue in North and South Kivu despite Washington and Doha accords; Angola proposes Feb 18 ceasefire; M23 drone-struck Kisangani airport; Rubaya mine landslide killed 200+; Vectus Global PMC supporting FARDC in South Kivu
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\nEscalating
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\nEscalating
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Ethiopia – Tigray Buildup
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ENDF redeploying forces toward Tigray since Feb 7; UN High Commissioner Türk warns of “highly volatile” situation; Abiy acknowledged Eritrean war crimes in Tigray for first time Feb 4; Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions rising over Red Sea access; TDF pushed ENDF from disputed areas in late January
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\nTense
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\nTense
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Sahel – Jihadi Expansion
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HRW reports IS Sahel massacred 30+ civilians in Niger’s Tillabéri region in January; Boko Haram killed 170+ in Nigeria’s Kwara state Feb 3; IS Sahel attacked Niamey airport; US deploying 200 troops to train Nigerian military; Alliance of Sahel States juntas face worsening insurgency
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03
\nFast Take
\nFast Take
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SUMMITItaly–Africa Summit opens in Addis Ababa — PM Meloni convenes second edition at Addis Ababa Convention Centre, first time on African soil; reviews Mattei Plan (€1.3–1.4bn in 2025 projects across 14 focus countries); co-hosted with Ethiopia; precedes AU Assembly where Meloni will speak as guest of honour Saturday; summit agenda covers energy, infrastructure, water, agriculture, education, and healthcare
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POLICYSONA 2026 debate begins — parliamentary reaction to Ramaphosa’s address; key announcements: SANDF deployment to W Cape and Gauteng to combat gangs and illegal mining; 5,500 new police recruits; FMD declared national disaster (28 million vaccines needed); National Water Crisis Committee chaired by president; R1 trillion infrastructure pledge over 3 years; 150% EV investment tax deduction from March; 88% matric pass rate celebrated
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CONFLICTEthiopian military buildup near Tigray intensifies — ENDF redeploying large forces from Amhara and Oromia toward Tigray since Feb 7; TPLF accuses ENDF of military preparations Feb 9; UN’s Türk warns situation “highly volatile” and calls for de-escalation; Abiy acknowledged Eritrean war crimes in Tigray on Feb 4 for first time; drone strikes and artillery used by both sides; crisis escalates as Abiy hosts AU summit dinner tonight
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DIPLOAU Summit week in full swing — CAHOSCC meeting today chaired by Ruto; AU Peace and Security Council meets; Sudan FM lobbies for membership reinstatement, accuses “foreign interference” in civil war; Burundi’s Ndayishimiye set to assume AU chairmanship tomorrow; 6 states suspended (Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Mali, Niger, Sudan); António Guterres meeting AUC Chairperson on margins
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CRISISAngola proposes Feb 18 DRC ceasefire — Lourenço hosted Tshisekedi, Gnassingbé, and Obasanjo in Luanda Feb 9; Rwanda’s FM Nduhungirehe reacted skeptically, warning previous deals failed; M23 commissioned 7,500 new fighters; drone attacks on Kisangani airport; Doha talks resumed Feb 1 on limited ceasefire verification scope; South Africa announced withdrawal of its MONUSCO troops
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RIGHTSHRW documents IS Sahel massacres in Niger — 30 civilians including 4 children and 5 combatants killed in two attacks in Tillabéri region (Jan 18 and Jan 26); 31 executed in Bossieye for refusing to pay zakat; report released today; separately, Boko Haram killed 170+ in Nigeria’s Kwara state Feb 3 in deadliest attack this year; US deploying 200 troops for Nigerian military training
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04
\nDevelopments to Watch
\nDevelopments to Watch
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ADDIS ABABAItaly–Africa Summit Brings Mattei Plan to African Soil
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Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni convened the second Italy–Africa Summit in Addis Ababa on Thursday, marking the first time the biennial meeting has been held on the African continent. Co-hosted with Ethiopia at the Addis Ababa Convention Centre, the summit reviewed progress on the Mattei Plan, Italy’s flagship strategic framework for Africa launched in Rome in January 2024. Projects underway in 2025 reached a value of between €1.3 billion and €1.4 billion, mobilised through the Africa Fund, the Italian Climate Fund, and collaboration with multilateral institutions including the World Bank, IFAD, and the African Development Bank. The nine initial focus countries have expanded to fourteen. According to Raffaele Marchetti of Luiss University, the plan represents Italy’s bid for “a more independent international role,” noting that the United States “has little interest in Africa” and the summit provides “an important window of opportunity to take a bit of European leadership.” The summit covers five pillars — energy, infrastructure, water and agriculture, education, and healthcare — and will conclude with a state dinner hosted by PM Abiy Ahmed. Meloni will address the AU Assembly’s opening plenary session on Saturday as guest of honour, a diplomatic signal the AU characterises as recognition of Italy’s deepening engagement. Questions remain about implementation: an IrpiMedia investigation raised concerns about infrastructure transparency and project selection processes.
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SOUTH AFRICASONA Debate Opens as Ramaphosa’s Ambitions Meet Reality
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Parliament begins the two-day SONA debate today following President Ramaphosa’s address last night at Cape Town City Hall — the same venue where Mandela first addressed the nation in 1990. The address was politically shrewd, described by Daily Maverick as “a masterclass in political crowd-pleasing” that sent calibrated signals to every constituency. For populists: SANDF deployment to the Cape Flats and Gauteng to combat gang violence and illegal mining. For ANC loyalists: state ownership preserved through a concession model. For free-marketeers: rail access, port concessions, commercial courts, and a 150% electric vehicle investment tax deduction from March 2026. Ramaphosa declared foot-and-mouth disease a national disaster — 28 million vaccines are needed and the R80 billion livestock industry is at stake, with the outbreak having spread across KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, North West, Limpopo, and Western Cape. He established a National Water Crisis Committee he will personally chair, citing parts of Johannesburg having been without water for 21+ days. The R1 trillion infrastructure commitment over three years and 5,500 new police recruitments drew attention, but critics noted the absence of concrete timelines. The JSE fell 1.3% on Friday, driven by commodity pullbacks rather than SONA reaction, with the rand weakening to 16.02 against the dollar.
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HORN OF AFRICAEthiopian Military Buildup Signals Possible Return to War in Tigray
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The Ethiopian federal government has begun a significant military buildup near the Tigray region, redeploying large numbers of Ethiopian National Defence Force troops from the Amhara and Oromia regions since February 7, according to the Critical Threats Project’s February 12 Africa File. The TPLF accused the ENDF of military preparations and operations on February 9. The buildup follows the first large-scale hostilities since the end of the Tigray war in 2022: in late January, Tigray Defence Forces launched offensives in northwestern and southern Tigray, seizing then withdrawing from disputed territory near the Amhara border. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk appealed on February 10 for de-escalation, warning the situation is “highly volatile” with “drones, artillery and other powerful weapons” being used by both sides. In a remarkable shift, PM Abiy Ahmed acknowledged on February 4 for the first time that Eritrean forces committed mass killings and looted factories during the 2020-2022 Tigray war — a development that has heightened tensions with Asmara. Ethiopia and Eritrea have been moving forces to the border near the Red Sea port of Assab. The irony is acute: Abiy is hosting the AU heads of state dinner tonight while his own country edges toward a crisis that could destabilise the entire Horn of Africa.
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CONTINENTAL39th AU Summit: Sudan Lobbies, DRC Ceasefire Proposed, Ndayishimiye Set for Chair
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The 39th African Union Summit enters its most consequential phase today in Addis Ababa. Sudan’s Foreign Minister Hussein Awad addressed the AU Peace and Security Council, framing the SAF’s war against the RSF as protecting Africa from “foreign interference” and lobbying for reinstatement of Sudan’s suspended membership. While the council did not reinstate Sudan, it issued a statement condemning external interference and urging foreign actors to stop fuelling the conflict. Separately, Angola proposed a February 18 ceasefire between the DRC government and M23, following talks in Luanda hosted by President Lourenço with Tshisekedi, Gnassingbé, and Obasanjo. Rwanda’s FM reacted skeptically, warning previous agreements had failed due to Kinshasa’s “obsession with an improbable military solution.” Burundi’s President Ndayishimiye is set to assume the AU chairmanship tomorrow, succeeding Angola’s Lourenço. His tenure will focus on the Great Lakes and Sahel crises. Tanzania has been nominated second vice-chair. The summit’s official theme — “Ensuring Sustainable Access to Water and Safe Sanitation” — will compete for attention with the security crises that dominate Africa’s political reality. Today’s CAHOSCC meeting, chaired by Kenya’s Ruto, will table Africa’s common position on climate finance. UN Secretary-General Guterres met the AUC Chairperson on the margins.
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SAHELHRW Exposes IS Sahel Village Massacres as Sahel Violence Spirals
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Human Rights Watch released a report today documenting two massacres by Islamic State in the Sahel (IS Sahel) in western Niger’s Tillabéri region. On January 18, IS Sahel fighters rounded up and executed 31 men and boys in Bossieye village after residents refused to pay the zakat (Islamic tax) and joined pro-government militias. A witness described finding the bodies near the mosque, shot in the head, legs, and back, buried in four mass graves. On January 26, IS Sahel killed four men in Alfaga Daweyzé Koira. HRW interviewed 13 people and sent a letter to the junta’s cabinet on February 6, receiving no response. The Tillabéri region recorded the highest number of civilian fatalities from attacks in the central Sahel in 2025, driven first by IS Sahel, then the Nigerien military. Separately, a military drone strike on a market in Kokoloko village on January 6 killed 17 civilians including four children, which HRW said may constitute a war crime. The violence extends into Nigeria, where suspected Boko Haram militants massacred at least 170 people in Kwara state on February 3 — the deadliest attack this year — executing victims with bound hands. The United States is deploying approximately 200 troops to Nigeria for training, following Trump’s December 2025 Christmas Day airstrikes.
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SUDANSudan’s War Front Shifts to Kordofan as Famine Expands
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The frontline of Sudan’s civil war has shifted decisively from Darfur to the central Kordofan regions, with the RSF pushing east toward the strategic city of El Obeid — the key gateway to Khartoum — after consolidating control over all five Darfur states. UN High Commissioner Türk’s office documented more than 90 civilian deaths and 142 injuries from drone strikes by both sides from late January to February 6 alone. On February 7, an RSF drone attack killed 24 people including eight children as they fled in a vehicle. Three drone strikes on health facilities in South Kordofan killed 31 people. The SAF broke the nearly two-year RSF sieges on Dilling and Kadugli in late January, reopening supply routes that briefly dropped food prices from crisis levels. However, FEWS NET cautioned on February 5 that relief may be “temporary” with high risk of siege conditions returning. Reuters reported that Ethiopia is hosting a secret UAE-financed camp training 4,300 RSF fighters — the first direct evidence of Ethiopian involvement. A senior RSF commander, Hamid Ali Abubakar, was killed in a SAF drone strike in Central Darfur. The Central Bank of Sudan announced resumption of operations in Khartoum for the first time since the war began. At the AU summit, Sudan’s FM characterised the war as protecting Africa from foreign interference, while the UAE “categorically rejected” allegations of supporting the RSF.
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AGRICULTUREFMD National Disaster Declaration Reverberates Across Southern Africa
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Ramaphosa’s declaration of foot-and-mouth disease as a national disaster during SONA is sending shockwaves through southern Africa’s livestock sector. The outbreak has spread across six South African provinces — KwaZulu-Natal (207+ affected sites), Mpumalanga, Gauteng, North West, Limpopo, and the Western Cape — threatening an R80 billion industry. A total of 28 million vaccines are needed; nearly 2 million animals have been vaccinated so far, with 1 million doses arriving in coming weeks and 5 million secured by March through suppliers including Argentina’s Biogénesis Bagó and Turkey’s Dollvet. Western Cape Premier Winde committed R100 million for vaccine procurement and implemented 24/7 border controls since February 4. Neighbouring Namibia is scrambling: Agriculture Minister Zaamwani told parliament that N$1.5 billion is needed for prevention, warning an outbreak would shut down exports to the EU, China, and the US. A new FMD case was detected at Kuruman in the Northern Cape, just 400km from the Namibian border. Botswana has also reported an outbreak in Disease Control Zone 6b. South Africa lost its FMD-free status in 2019, and the current crisis represents the worst outbreak in decades, with SAHPRA approval being sought for emergency use of unregistered vaccines.
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05
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
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| COUNTRY | KEY DEVELOPMENT | CREDIT SIGNAL |
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| South Africa | SONA: SANDF deployed; FMD national disaster; R1tn infra pledge; water committee | Spending pledges weigh on fiscal outlook; SARB holds at 6.75%; reform momentum positive |
| Ethiopia | Hosting AU Summit; military buildup near Tigray; Eritrea tensions rise | Sovereign risk elevated; war risk repricing; macro reforms stalled by security crisis |
| DRC | Angola proposes Feb 18 ceasefire; M23 commissioning fighters; Doha talks resume | Eastern resource extraction disrupted; mineral smuggling continues; peace accords stalling |
| Sudan | RSF advances on El Obeid; SAF broke Dilling/Kadugli sieges; famine expanding | Sovereign risk extreme; AU membership suspended; Central Bank resuming in Khartoum |
| Nigeria | VP Shettima at AU Summit; US deploying 200 training troops; Kwara massacre aftermath | Security costs rising; naira stable; US engagement dual-edged |
| Kenya | Ruto departs for AU Summit; chairs CAHOSCC; security incidents during northern tour | Reform agenda on track; shilling stable; AU institutional reform champion role |
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\nPower Players
\nPower Players
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| WHO | ROLE | WHY IT MATTERS |
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| Giorgia Meloni | PM, Italy | Convened Italy–Africa Summit in Addis; will address AU Assembly as guest of honour; pushing Mattei Plan as EU–Africa bridge |
| Cyril Ramaphosa | President, South Africa | Delivered SONA deploying SANDF, declaring FMD disaster, pledging R1tn infrastructure; SONA debate begins today |
| Évariste Ndayishimiye | President, Burundi | Set to assume AU chairmanship tomorrow; will lead on Great Lakes and Sahel crises; former AU Special Envoy for Sahel |
| William Ruto | President, Kenya | Chairing CAHOSCC today; AU Champion for Institutional Reform; vowed tough action on Al-Shabaab during northern tour |
| Abiy Ahmed | PM, Ethiopia | Hosting AU summit amid escalating Tigray crisis; acknowledged Eritrean war crimes for first time; military tensions with Asmara |
| João Lourenço | President, Angola / Outgoing AU Chair | Proposed Feb 18 DRC ceasefire; mediating between Tshisekedi and M23; handing over AU chair to Ndayishimiye |
| Hussein Awad Ali Salem | FM, Sudan | Lobbied AU PSC for membership reinstatement; characterised war as protecting Africa from “foreign interference” |
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\nRegulatory & Policy Watch
\nRegulatory & Policy Watch
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| JURISDICTION | MEASURE | STATUS / IMPACT |
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| South Africa | Foot-and-mouth disease declared national disaster | Unlocks emergency resources; 28m vaccines needed; mass vaccination in 6 provinces; SAHPRA emergency approval sought |
| South Africa | SANDF deployment to W Cape and Gauteng | Targets gang violence and illegal mining; 5,500 new police recruits; Madlanga Commission reforms of SAPS |
| South Africa | National Water Infrastructure Agency bill | Passed National Assembly; heads to NCOP; board appointment by April 2026; addresses 47% water loss rate |
| Italy–Africa | Mattei Plan review — 14 focus countries, 5 pillars | €1.3–1.4bn deployed in 2025; new projects launching 2026; expanded from 9 to 14 countries |
| DRC–Rwanda | Angola proposes Feb 18 ceasefire | Rwanda skeptical; Doha talks resumed on verification mechanism; Washington Accords stalling |
| Namibia | FMD prevention — N$1.5bn needed for border controls | Outbreak 400km from border; N$57m already approved; livestock sector valued at N$15bn at risk |
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\nCalendar
\nNext 72 Hours
\nCalendar
\nNext 72 Hours
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| DATE | EVENT | SIGNIFICANCE |
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| Feb 13 | Italy–Africa Summit — Addis Ababa | Mattei Plan review; Meloni + African heads of state; state dinner hosted by Abiy |
| Feb 13 | CAHOSCC meeting — Addis Ababa (Ruto chairs) | Africa’s common position on climate action, adaptation, resilience, and climate finance |
| Feb 13 | South Africa — SONA debate Day 1 | Opposition scrutiny of SANDF deployment, water crisis response, and fiscal commitments |
| Feb 14–15 | 39th AU Assembly of Heads of State — Addis Ababa | Ndayishimiye assumes chair; Meloni addresses plenary; water, peace and security decisions |
| Feb 14 | South Africa — SONA debate Day 2 / President’s reply | Ramaphosa responds to parliamentary debate; tests GNU cohesion |
| Feb 18 | Proposed DRC–M23 ceasefire date (Angola-brokered) | Compliance uncertain; Rwanda skeptical; Doha verification mechanism still being established |
| Feb mid | South Africa — first batch of FMD vaccines arrives | Critical for containing R80bn livestock industry crisis; 1m doses in first tranche |
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\nBottom Line
\nBottom Line
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Africa on February 13 is a continent performing its most familiar paradox: summitry at the centre, emergency at the edges. In Addis Ababa, Giorgia Meloni is reviewing €1.4 billion in Mattei Plan investments with African leaders while the host country’s own military is massing on its northern border for a possible return to war in Tigray. Tomorrow, Burundi’s Ndayishimiye assumes the AU chairmanship as the institution faces perhaps its most consequential agenda in years — a Sudanese civil war that has produced the world’s largest displacement crisis, an eastern Congo conflict that peace accords cannot contain, and a Sahel security collapse that has expanded deep into Nigeria. The formal theme of the summit is water, and for once the symbolism aligns with reality: in Johannesburg, families have gone three weeks without water; in Kadugli, a broken siege briefly dropped famine-level food prices before the threat of re-encirclement returned. Ramaphosa’s SONA was a masterclass in the art of balanced signalling — soldiers for the populists, rail concessions for the free-marketeers, state ownership for the ANC faithful — but its most consequential announcement may be the declaration of foot-and-mouth disease as a national disaster, which threatens to sever southern Africa’s livestock export links and is already forcing Namibia to seek N$1.5 billion in emergency prevention. The through-line across the continent is familiar but deepening: Africa’s institutions are building the architecture of cooperation — the Mattei Plan, the Doha framework, the Washington Accords — while the crises they are meant to address continue to outpace the mechanisms designed to contain them. The gap is not one of aspiration but of velocity. The summits move at the speed of consensus. The wars move at the speed of drones.
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Africa Intelligence Brief
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Daily Edition · Friday, February 13, 2026
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This is part of The Rio Times’ coverage of African business and economic developments for the global financial community.
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