USD/BRL Stalls Below 5.52 Resistance Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Remarks

According to Banco Central do Brasil USD/BRL traded near 5.4747 at 06:04 UTC, with calm overnight flows into Jackson Hole.

Traders spent the last 24 hours recalibrating U.S. rate odds after the July FOMC decision kept the funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%. The vote showed two dissents—Bowman and Waller—who preferred a 25 bp cut, underscoring a live easing debate for September.

Pricing in CME FedWatch still implies a September cut, but not an aggressive path. That stance kept the ICE U.S. Dollar Index roughly stable into Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, limiting fresh dollar strength against high-carry peers like the real.

Brazil’s macro backdrop remained firm. Copom held the Selic at 15.00% on July 30, calling the level consistent with inflation convergence. Carry support persists while inflation indicators cool at the margin.

On prices, IBGE reported the July IPCA at 0.26% m/m, while the IPCA-15 preview printed 0.33% m/m and 5.30% y/y. The mix points to moderating, but not extinguished, pressures, which helps justify Copom’s “hold.”

Flows in BRL-linked equities looked orderly. iShares shows EWZ with 186.05 million shares outstanding and 27.69 million shares traded on Aug 20; those official tallies do not flag outsized creations or redemptions yesterday.

Range Trading Amid Mixed Signals

Technicals from the attached charts frame the near-term story. On the 4-hour view, price faded after testing 5.49–5.52 and pulled back to 5.47.

RSI near 67 cooled from overbought, and MACD remains above zero with a narrowing histogram—momentum positive, but easing.

On the daily view, RSI near 49 shows neutral momentum; MACD sits just below zero with a slightly positive histogram, signaling a tentative loss of downside impulse rather than a trend change.

Bollinger Bands cap the topside near 5.52 on the 4-hour chart and cluster support around 5.44–5.46 across both time frames. Moving averages confirm that read.

Price hovers below a heavier daily resistance band near 5.50–5.52, while shorter averages on the 4-hour chart have turned up, consistent with a rebound inside a broader range.

The “Global Liquidity Index (NDQ)” overlay on the daily chart—yellow line provided in the image—has drifted sideways to lower since early August, aligning with a cautious risk backdrop shown on the chart.

The result is a mercantile balance: wide rate differentials and cooling inflation support the real, while a steady ICE dollar and a still-data-dependent Fed cap BRL gains ahead of Powell.

Unless USD/BRL closes above 5.52 on a daily basis, the base case remains range trading between 5.44 and 5.52, with headline-driven intraday swings around U.S. policy expectations.

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