USA & Canada Intelligence Brief for Wednesday, February 11, 2026

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What happened: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 130,000 nonfarm payrolls added in January — nearly double the 70K consensus and the highest since December 2024. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% from 4.4%. Health care added 82K jobs, social assistance 42K, and construction 33K. Federal government lost 34K as deferred resignation acceptees left payrolls; financial activities shed 22K. The release was delayed five days from February 6 due to a partial government shutdown. Crucially, the annual benchmark revision slashed 2025 total job growth to just 181K (from 584K previously reported), implying average monthly gains of only 15K — dramatically below the prior 49K estimate. November revised down 15K to +41K; December revised down 2K to +48K.

So what: The market is caught between two narratives. The January beat signals a resilient labor market — the initial equity rally reflected hopes that strong hiring supports earnings growth. But the massive benchmark revisions mean the economy was far weaker in 2025 than anyone thought. Two-year Treasury yields posted their biggest single-day jump since October as traders pushed Fed rate cut expectations from June to July. The Dow touched 50,000 early but retreated as software stocks resumed selling. The delayed CPI data (now Thursday) becomes the next flashpoint. If inflation runs hot alongside strong jobs, the Fed may not cut at all before September.

What happened: On Tuesday afternoon, an active shooter opened fire at Tumbler Ridge Secondary School in northeastern British Columbia, a remote town of 2,400 people. RCMP received the first report at 1:20 p.m. local time and were on scene within two minutes. Six people were found dead inside the school; one person died en route to hospital. Two more were found dead at a residence connected to the shooting. The suspected shooter — described as a woman with brown hair — was found deceased with a self-inflicted injury. Twenty-seven others were injured, with two airlifted with life-threatening injuries. Schools closed for the rest of the week. PM Carney suspended his planned trip to Halifax and Munich to address Parliament.

So what: This is the deadliest Canadian school shooting in decades and the second mass homicide in British Columbia in less than a year after the Vancouver street festival attack last April. In a country where assault-style rifles are banned and gun laws are far stricter than the US, the attack has reignited debate about firearms regulation. Carney’s decision to cancel Munich is significant — he was set to announce a major defence industrial strategy in Halifax. The tragedy may also influence the political atmosphere around Carney’s broader agenda: Parliament is suspended, and the focus of national conversation has shifted entirely. Mayor Krakowka said he “probably knows every one of the victims” in this tight-knit community.

What happened: President Trump is hosting Israeli PM Netanyahu at the White House today — their seventh meeting since Trump’s second term began — for discussions centred on US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Netanyahu moved the meeting forward a week after US envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner held indirect talks with Iran’s foreign minister in Oman last Friday. Trump told Axios he is “thinking” about sending a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, saying “we have an armada that is heading there and another one might be going.” The USS Abraham Lincoln is already stationed in the Indian Ocean. Secretary Rubio met Netanyahu at 9 a.m. Iran insists talks are limited to its nuclear programme and has ruled out missile negotiations.

So what: The gap between US/Israeli demands and Iranian red lines is stark. Trump wants “no nuclear weapons, no missiles”; Netanyahu wants ballistic missile limits and an end to proxy support; Iran considers missiles non-negotiable. Netanyahu is presenting fresh intelligence on Iranian capabilities and preparing contingency military options should talks collapse. A second carrier group would be a significant escalation signal. The broader context: this is managed brinksmanship, with Trump using both diplomatic (Oman talks round two expected next week) and military pressure (carrier deployments) simultaneously. Markets largely shrugging off the risks — but WTI crude sitting below $65 suggests no supply disruption is priced in.

What happened: With funding for the Department of Homeland Security set to lapse at midnight Friday, Democrats and Republicans remain deadlocked over ICE reform. The two-week stopgap passed after the last shutdown funds DHS only through Feb 13. Democrats demand 10 reforms including body cameras, judicial warrants, a mask ban for agents, and verification of citizenship before detention. Schumer announced Democrats will not support another stopgap. The White House sent a counterproposal Jeffries called “woefully inadequate.” At Tuesday’s House hearing, CBP Commissioner Scott acknowledged open investigations into officer conduct. An NBC poll shows ICE approval at just 34%, with 65% saying the agency has “gone too far.”

So what: This is a new kind of shutdown politics. Only DHS is at risk — 96% of the government is funded. ICE and CBP would largely continue operating via $75B in separate funding from last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill. But TSA, FEMA, Coast Guard, and Secret Service would face disruptions. The political calculus has shifted: the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good in Minneapolis gave Democrats a visceral argument for reform. Trump’s immigration approval has cratered. Republicans appear open to body cameras but reject judicial warrants and the mask ban. Both chambers are scheduled to recess for Presidents Day next week. If no deal by Friday, a partial shutdown could drag into late February.

What happened: Attorney General Pam Bondi testified before the House Judiciary Committee today in a hearing that quickly became contentious. Democrats pressed for new investigations into named co-conspirators in the Epstein files, highlighting emails and documents referencing the abuse of minors as young as 9. Bondi pledged to “look into anything” but clashed repeatedly with members. Separately, the DOJ unredacted additional names under bipartisan pressure from lawmakers who reviewed unredacted files this week. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick faces growing calls to resign after admitting he visited Epstein’s Caribbean island in 2012. Ghislaine Maxwell offered to testify if Trump grants clemency. A federal grand jury declined to indict Democratic lawmakers who posted a video urging military to disobey illegal orders.

So what: The Epstein files are becoming a 2026 midterm issue. Over 3 million documents have been released, containing 2,000+ videos and 180,000 images. Both parties are wielding the files as weapons: Democrats want new prosecutions, Republicans want to highlight Democratic connections. The Lutnick revelation — a sitting Cabinet secretary who visited Epstein’s island — is politically toxic, though the White House has publicly backed him. The broader dynamic: public pressure for accountability is bipartisan, but the DOJ’s capacity or willingness to bring new charges remains unclear. Rep. Raskin described seeing references to victims as young as 9 years old in the unredacted files.

What happened: Mattel shares plunged over 30% on Wednesday — its worst day on record — after reporting a Q4 earnings miss and slashing 2026 guidance. Q4 EPS came in at $0.34 vs $0.51 expected on revenue of $1.76B vs $1.83B. Full-year 2025 revenue dipped 1% to $5.35B. Most damaging: 2026 EPS guidance of $1.18–$1.30, far below the $1.75 Street consensus. Barbie gross billings fell 11% in 2025, on top of a 12% decline in 2024. Citi and JPMorgan both downgraded. CEO Ynon Kreiz announced a $1.5B share buyback and the full acquisition of gaming studio Mattel163, but the market was unimpressed.

So what: This is a “double miss” that triggered a re-rating event. The post-Barbie movie hangover is real: the brand that once generated a cultural moment is now in its second consecutive year of double-digit declines. The activist angle is heating up — Barington Capital has renewed calls for a CEO/Chairman split and divestiture of underperforming lines like Fisher-Price. Meanwhile, Robinhood fell 10% on revenue miss (crypto weakness), Lyft dropped 15% on a surprise operating loss, and Ford reported a net loss despite beating on auto revenue. Datadog bucked the trend, surging 15% on strong cloud security results — proving the market still rewards AI winners.

What happened: PM Carney last week unveiled a new national automotive strategy: scrapping the EV mandate (which required 100% electric by 2035) in favour of stronger greenhouse gas emission standards for 2027–32. Consumer EV rebates return at $5K for battery EVs and $2.5K for plug-in hybrids through 2031. Canada is maintaining counter-tariffs on US auto imports. Ottawa allocated $3B from the Strategic Response Fund for the auto sector. The China-Canada deal — allowing 49,000 Chinese EVs at 6.1% tariff — triggered Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods. Carney insists Canada is “not pursuing a free trade deal” with Beijing. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US would “absolutely not” drop all tariffs even if Canada did the same.

So what: Carney is walking an extraordinarily fine line. The China EV deal addresses the agricultural lobby (canola, pork, seafood tariff relief) while limiting auto exposure to a capped 49K vehicles — roughly 3% of the Canadian market. But Trump sees it as a backdoor for Chinese goods into North America, and Bessent’s flat rejection of reciprocal tariff removal signals CUSMA renegotiation this summer will be brutal. The auto strategy pivot away from EV mandates to emission standards is pragmatic but has drawn fire from environmentalists. Ontario Premier Ford is unhappy about Chinese EVs; Prairie premiers support the agricultural gains. The broader pattern: Canada is diversifying trade partners while trying not to provoke Washington further. Carney’s Davos line — “if you are not at the table, you are on the menu” — is the governing philosophy.

What happened: The software sector sell-off that began last week intensified on Wednesday. Salesforce dropped 4%, ServiceNow and Intuit each fell over 5%, Oracle and Palantir declined over 2%. The WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund ETF is down more than 24% in 2026. T-Mobile fell 5% on weak subscriber growth. The sell-off was reignited by the strong jobs report (which pushed rate cut expectations further out) and compounded by ongoing fears that AI automation tools will displace enterprise software business models. S&P Global remains down over 20% YTD despite a Tuesday recovery attempt. Dassault Systèmes’ 20% crash in Europe added transatlantic pressure.

So what: The “SaaS apocalypse” trade is accelerating. What began as a sector rotation is becoming a structural repricing. The trigger: AI agentic tools from Anthropic, OpenAI, and others are demonstrating they can automate workflows that enterprise software companies charge premium subscriptions for. The fear has spread from pure-play SaaS to financial services (wealth management AI tools) and now industrial software (Dassault). Winners are being differentiated sharply — Datadog (+15%), which benefits from AI cloud demand, versus Salesforce (-4%), which is seen as vulnerable to AI displacement. The Dow touching 50,000 then retreating encapsulates the tension: the economy is strong, but the software companies that powered the last decade’s gains are facing existential questions.

What happened: The search for Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of NBC “Today” co-anchor Savannah Guthrie, continued on Day 11 with significant new developments. The FBI released doorbell camera footage recovered from “residual data in backend systems” showing a masked, armed individual tampering with Guthrie’s front door camera on the morning of Feb 1. A man identified as Carlos Palazuelos was detained in Rio Rico, AZ — ~60 miles south of Tucson near the Mexico border — and released after several hours of questioning. His home was searched under warrant. FBI Director Patel confirmed agents are investigating “persons of interest.” TMZ received a third purported letter demanding one Bitcoin in exchange for information about the kidnapper. A $50K FBI reward stands.

So what: The case has captivated national attention and created an unusual intersection of media, law enforcement, and public participation. The surveillance footage recovery — from a camera that had been disconnected and lacked a cloud subscription — is a technical breakthrough. Multiple ransom notes (demanding $4M, then $6M, now a separate Bitcoin demand) suggest either a disorganised operation or copycat communications. The Rio Rico detention and release illustrates the challenge: the FBI is chasing leads across southern Arizona but has yet to name a suspect. Savannah Guthrie’s emotional public pleas have amplified the case far beyond typical missing persons coverage. Health concerns are mounting — Nancy Guthrie is without necessary medication.

What happened: The White House announced that President Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin will formally rescind the 2009 Obama-era Endangerment Finding on Thursday — what Press Secretary Leavitt called “the largest deregulatory action in American history” saving “$1.3 trillion in crushing regulations.” The Endangerment Finding determined that six greenhouse gases pose a threat to public health, providing the legal underpinning for all climate regulations under the Clean Air Act — including vehicle emissions standards, power plant limits, and industrial reporting requirements. The final rule eliminates requirements to measure, report, certify, and comply with federal GHG emission standards for motor vehicles. EPA projects average per-vehicle savings of $2,400 for light-duty cars, SUVs, and trucks. The National Academies of Sciences concluded in September that the original finding was “accurate, stood the test of time, and is now reinforced by even stronger evidence.”

So what: This is the Trump administration’s most consequential environmental action — and possibly its most legally vulnerable. The Endangerment Finding has been upheld in every court challenge, including a 2023 DC Circuit ruling, and rests on the 2007 Supreme Court decision in Massachusetts v. EPA. Environmental groups are preparing immediate litigation. The irony: Elon Musk’s Tesla urged the EPA to keep the finding, arguing it provided “stable regulatory platform for Tesla’s extensive investments.” The repeal could fragment regulation: if federal standards vanish, California and 17 states with their own emissions rules become the de facto regulators, creating a patchwork automakers have spent decades trying to avoid. The NRDC called it “the single biggest attack in US history on federal authority to tackle the climate crisis.” Zeldin called it “driving a dagger through the heart of the climate-change religion.” The courts will decide who is right — but in the meantime, the regulatory landscape for energy, auto, and industrial sectors has been fundamentally altered.

United States

January NFP at 130K beats consensus by nearly 2x. But benchmark revisions reveal 2025 was dramatically weaker than thought — monthly average just 15K. Two-year yields jump 12bps; Fed rate cut repriced from June to July. Dow briefly hit 50,000 before pulling back. DHS shutdown risk rising. CPI data Thursday. Dollar strengthening post-NFP. National debt past $36T. Trump fiscal agenda (tax cuts, tariff revenue) faces mounting deficit pressure.

Canada

TSX hit fresh record 33,332 on Tuesday, extending three-session rally to ~4%. Falling bond yields, tech rebound, and strong earnings driving gains. Silvercorp Metals +213% over 12 months on surging silver prices. Carney’s auto strategy allocates $3B+; counter-tariffs on US autos maintained. China EV deal creates new trade channel but risks US retaliation. CUSMA review this summer looms large. BoC rate trajectory supportive. Housing affordability crisis: 49% of young professionals considering leaving Maryland-adjacent provinces.

Mexico – Arms Trafficking

Mexican authorities revealed that ~50% of seized .50-caliber cartridges since 2012 trace to a US government-owned ammunition factory near Kansas City. Since Oct 2024, Mexico has seized 18,000 firearms, nearly 80% from the US. Cross-border arms flows remain a politically sensitive issue as Trump’s immigration crackdown intensifies bilateral tensions. The data underscores the asymmetry in the “security” conversation between the two countries.

Donald Trump

Juggling multiple crises: hosting Netanyahu on Iran, facing DHS shutdown, managing Epstein files fallout, losing immigration approval. Considering second carrier group to pressure Tehran. Threatened 100% tariffs on Canada over China deal. Failed to shield tariff authority in House. Separately, backed Commerce Secretary Lutnick despite Epstein island admission. Immigration poll numbers now at same level as overall approval — the political asset that won him the White House is becoming a liability.

Mark Carney

The Tumbler Ridge tragedy has forced a complete pivot in Carney’s week. Originally scheduled to announce a defence industrial strategy in Halifax and attend Munich Security Conference, he is instead making statements in Parliament and leading national mourning. Prior to Tuesday’s events, Carney was building “middle power” coalition momentum — Davos speech, China trade deal, new auto strategy, EV rebates. His agenda to diversify Canada’s trade beyond the US remains the defining strategic bet, but the timing of his Munich absence weakens Canada’s voice at the premier security forum.

Benjamin Netanyahu

Moved Washington visit a week early — urgency driven by concern the US may pursue a narrow nuclear deal that doesn’t address Israeli priorities. Bringing fresh intelligence on Iranian military capabilities. Wants missiles, proxies, and enriched uranium stockpile all on the table. Seventh meeting with Trump this term; Netanyahu has more face time with the president than any foreign leader. The risk: Trump wants a deal for legacy; Netanyahu wants maximum pressure. Those goals may diverge.

Chuck Schumer & Hakeem Jeffries

Leading Democratic hardline on DHS funding. Schumer announced Democrats will not support another CR. Jeffries called the White House counterproposal “woefully inadequate.” Drawing strength from Trump’s cratering immigration numbers — the same issue that powered his 2024 win. Their leverage: DHS shutdown optics blame Trump, and ICE continues operating regardless. The calculation: force Republicans to accept ICE reforms or own the shutdown narrative heading into midterms.

ICE Reform Proposals: 10 Democratic Demands

Democrats’ DHS funding conditions include: mandatory body cameras (bipartisan support); judicial warrants for home entry (GOP red line); ban on agent face masks (Johnson rejects); visible ID requirements; verification of citizenship before detention; prohibition on enforcement near schools/churches/medical facilities; expanded training; officer removal pending investigation; use-of-force policy codification. Republicans appear open to cameras and ending roving patrols. Both sides far apart on warrants and masks. No legislative text yet from either party.

CUSMA Review and Canadian Trade Diversification

The Canada-US-Mexico Agreement is scheduled for review this summer. Carney’s China EV deal (49K vehicles at 6.1% tariff) tests CUSMA boundaries. US Ambassador Hoekstra signalled some tariffs will remain even if CUSMA is renewed. Trump floated letting CUSMA expire or withdrawing entirely. Canada’s tradeable auto credit scheme rewards domestic manufacturing. Carney pursuing trade deals with India, ASEAN, Mercosur, and South Korea. If CUSMA collapses, Canada faces a 25%+ US tariff wall across most sectors.

EPA Endangerment Finding Repeal — Regulatory Cascade

White House will formalize rescission Thursday. Immediate effects: eliminates GHG vehicle emissions measurement, reporting, certification, and compliance obligations. Projected $2,400 per-vehicle savings. Does not initially apply to power plants and stationary sources, but opens the door to rolling back those rules. Legal timeline: environmental groups to file suit immediately; administration aims to reach the Supreme Court within Trump’s term. Massachusetts v. EPA (2007) and DC Circuit (2023) precedent both support the finding. National Academies confirmed the science is “beyond dispute.” Tesla warned repeal would undermine “stable regulatory platform.” 17 states with California-style emissions standards could become de facto regulators if federal rules vanish — creating the regulatory fragmentation automakers fear most.

North America is operating on multiple frequencies simultaneously, and they are increasingly dissonant. The jobs report tells two stories at once: January was strong, but 2025 was a mirage — annual hiring was barely a quarter of what was reported. The Dow touched 50,000 and retreated because the economy is healthy enough to keep hiring but the Fed may not cut rates, while the software companies that powered the last decade’s bull run are being repriced for a world where AI agents do what they do, cheaper. Meanwhile, the political system is fracturing on its own terms. Congress cannot fund its own homeland security department. The Epstein files are consuming oxygen on both sides of the aisle. Three Republican rebels sank their own party’s attempt to shield presidential tariff authority. North of the border, a school shooting in a town of 2,400 has stopped a prime minister mid-stride, cancelling a defence strategy rollout and a seat at Munich. Carney’s careful China deal — 49,000 electric vehicles in exchange for canola relief — drew a 100% tariff threat from Trump. The CUSMA renegotiation this summer will be the most consequential bilateral trade event of 2026, and both sides are already positioning. The thread connecting everything: the institutions that were supposed to manage risk — trade agreements, security agencies, financial regulators, international forums — are being stress-tested by a president who views them as obstacles, a Canadian PM who views them as outdated, and a market that has decided AI will make half of them irrelevant. The Dow at 50,000 and a school shooting in the Rockies on the same day: that is North America in February 2026.

USA & Canada Intelligence Brief

Daily Edition · Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Data sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, CNN, NBC News, NPR, CBC, BLS, Trading Economics, The Hill, Washington Post, Yahoo Finance, Al Jazeera, Associated Press, Axios, RCMP, and government press releases. Market data intraday February 11, 2026.