Russia-Iran Alliance Escalates Red Sea Crisis with Potential Missile Deal

(Analysis) The Red Sea crisis has reignited as Houthi rebels resume attacks on ships, with Russia potentially supplying missiles to the pro-Iranian group.

This autocratic alliance is openly escalating the situation, raising concerns about maritime security and global trade.

Following Israel’s air strike on Houthi positions, the group launched missiles and drones at three ships in the Red Sea. The Liberian-flagged oil tanker Cordelia Moon was struck by four missiles and one marine drone.

The container vessel Marathopolis faced an assault from a drone and a missile, while an unidentified Liberian-flagged bulk carrier was also targeted.

Reuters reported negotiations between Russians and Houthis, mediated by Iran, to supply P800 Oniks anti-ship missiles.

These missiles, introduced in 2002, are particularly dangerous, flying at 2,200 km/h with a 300 km range and carrying a 250 kg warhead.

Their potential arrival could upset the Western protection system in the area and the Persian Gulf. The United States has deployed a fleet led by the USS Eisenhower in the Indian Ocean.

Putin’s Potential Missile Delivery

Putin’s potential missile delivery threatens this presence and the European Union fleet operating in the Red Sea. These naval forces form part of the expanded air defense shield protecting Israel from Iranian attacks.

If the missile transfer occurs, Iran would gain a significant advantage, potentially threatening the Western naval defense system protecting Israel.

This represents a high-stakes gamble in an already tense region, with implications extending to the Strait of Hormuz.

The resumption of Houthi attacks and Russian involvement suggest Moscow’s willingness to further heat up the Middle East scenario. This development poses a serious threat to the global economy.

The Red Sea route handles 40% of the world’s container traffic, which has already halved due to the crisis. Insurance premiums for ships in the area have skyrocketed by 1,000%, and travel costs have multiplied as vessels opt to circumnavigate Africa.

Escalating Risks in the Middle East

These factors, combined with the escalation following Iran’s attack on Israel, have contributed to rising oil prices. Before the Houthi attacks, 3.2 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Red Sea daily.

The potential Russian missile delivery to Iran and its allies could jeopardize the passage of 17 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz. This scenario would likely cause an immediate spike in global gasoline and manufactured goods prices.

Russia, already facing Western sanctions, has little to lose and much to gain from such economic turmoil. The timing of these events, including the visit of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to Tehran on September 30, suggests strategic coordination.

The renewed attacks in the Red Sea and the launch of ballistic missiles at Israel are unlikely to be coincidental. Iran appears to be effectively blocking Israel’s southern exit while threatening the global trade system.

Russia’s increasing involvement in the Middle East conflict is concerning. The mere negotiation of P800 missile transfers sends a strong message to the West.

It implies that Russia can also cause damage through third parties and inflict economic harm equivalent to sanctions. This move also demonstrates Russia’s unwavering support for Iran at a critical time.

By potentially delivering P800 missiles, Russia opens the door to confrontation with all affected parties. This includes Israel, Saudi Arabia, other regional governments, and all economies impacted by the crisis.

The resumption of attacks in the Red Sea and the possible shipment of Russian missiles to the Houthis reveal a range of grave possibilities for the region and beyond.