Real Edges Higher as Tariffs and Fed Odds Anchor USD/BRL

Data from official sources and the attached TradingView/ICE chart underpin this report. The chart shows USD/BRL near 5.466 at 06:08 UTC today.

The U.S. Labor Department reported 235,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16, up 11,000 from the prior week. S&P Global said the U.S. composite PMI rose to 55.4 in August, an eight-month high.

The Kansas City Fed confirmed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole today under the theme “Labor Markets in Transition.” Brazil formally requested WTO consultations over new U.S. tariff measures and announced Plano Brasil Soberano to support exporters.

Traders priced a majority probability of a September Fed rate cut, according to CME FedWatch. That backdrop kept the dollar sensitive to Powell’s guidance. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index remains the benchmark investors track for broad dollar moves.

The mercantile angle matters for Brazil. The government challenged the U.S. tariff package at the WTO and rolled out credit and relief lines. Officials framed the plan as protection for exporters and workers while diplomacy proceeds.

Markets treat these steps as buffers, not tailwinds, while uncertainty persists. Macro signals pulled in opposite directions yesterday. PMI strength argues for resilient U.S. activity and supports the dollar.

Higher jobless claims hint at cooling, which supports the market’s cut expectations. That mix kept real-dollar flows cautious into Powell. The daily USD/BRL chart you provided shows price below the 200-day moving average near 5.75.

The RSI sits around 48, which signals neutral momentum. The MACD histogram has just crossed slightly positive, signaling fading downside momentum. Price trades near the middle Bollinger Band, not at extremes.

The four-hour chart shows RSI in the mid-50s, which indicates modest upside momentum. Price presses the mid to upper Bollinger Band, which marks nearby resistance. Short moving averages have curled higher, which supports a cautious dollar-bid tone.

Support sits around 5.44–5.45 on recent four-hour lows. Resistance stands near 5.47–5.51 where upper bands and recent highs cluster. A daily close above that zone would open the 5.52–5.55 area. A failure would send price back toward 5.44 and the 5.40s.

The yellow Global Liquidity Index NDQ line on the daily chart eased through mid-August and then turned up this week. That upswing aligns with the modest improvement in risk appetite before Jackson Hole.

The line still sits below its early-summer peaks, which caps enthusiasm. The near-term story remains practical. Official PMI data firmed. Official claims rose.

The Fed keeps optionality. Brazil defends exporters while contesting U.S. tariffs. With USD/BRL near 5.466, the next decisive push likely comes from Powell’s tone and follow-through on trade policy.

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