Peru Puts the Odds of an Extraordinary El Nino at 62% and Its President Says the Effect Will Be Terrible
PERU · CLIMATE
Key Facts
- —The probability Peru’s forecasting committee puts the chance of an extraordinary El Nino between September and January at 62%.
- —The emergency A 60-day declaration already covers 893 districts across 22 regions.
- —The president Keiko Fujimori says the effect will be terrible and its magnitude cannot be imagined.
- —The accusation She says the first alert came in February and nothing was done between then and July.
- —The catch The central bank governor warns the hit could exceed estimates, with reserves at a 25-year low.
- —The works River clearing, bridge reinforcement and riverbank defences, extended beyond Piura.
Peru has fiscal reserves at a 25-year low and a forecasting committee putting the odds of the worst version of El Nino at close to two in three.
Peru’s forecasters put the probability of an extraordinary El Nino at 62%. The window runs from September 2026 to January 2027.
The country’s president used blunter language on Friday. Keiko Fujimori said the effect will be terrible and that its magnitude cannot be imagined.
She spoke to Nicolás Lúcar on Exitosa Noticias. An emergency declaration already covers 893 districts across 22 regions for 60 days.
Why Peru Fears This Particular Phase
El Nino is a warming of the eastern Pacific, and Peru sits directly on it. The phenomenon is named after the Peruvian coast, where fishermen noticed it appearing around Christmas.
For most of South America El Nino means altered rainfall. For northern Peru it means the desert coast receives rain it has no drainage for.
The 1997 and 1998 event killed hundreds and cost Peru a substantial share of its annual output. The 2017 coastal event flooded Piura and cut the country in half by road.
An extraordinary event is the strongest category the national committee uses. At 62% it is now the most likely single outcome rather than a tail risk.
What the Government Says It Is Doing
Fujimori listed physical works rather than transfers. River clearing and dredging, bridge reinforcement and riverbank defences.
She said prevention is being extended beyond Piura to other coastal and highland zones. Piura is running 24-hour operations, which she described as the model.
A financing mechanism was also named. Alongside the existing works-for-taxes scheme, the government is adding a services-for-taxes version.
Those schemes let companies discharge tax liabilities by building public infrastructure directly. They exist because Peruvian subnational governments have historically failed to spend allocated budgets.
The Accusation Against the Previous Government
Fujimori‘s criticism was specific and dated. The first alert, she said, came in February of this year.
Between February and July, she asked, what was done? Her answer was nothing.
That period covers the transitional government of José María Balcázar, which held office from February until her inauguration on 28 July. Peru changed president twice in that window.
The charge is politically convenient and not obviously wrong. A country that changes government mid-year does not execute multi-month preventive works well.
What the Forecast Actually Measures
The committee that issues it, known as ENFEN, is an interinstitutional body rather than a single agency. It combines the navy’s oceanographic service, the meteorological service and the marine research institute.
Its categories run from weak through moderate and strong to extraordinary. Each corresponds to sea surface temperature thresholds off the Peruvian coast.
A 62% probability for that top category is not a forecast of a specific flood. It is a statement about the ocean, from which flooding usually but not always follows.
That distinction matters for how governments spend. Preparing for the ocean signal is cheaper than responding to the flood, and harder to justify if the flood does not arrive.
The Money Problem
The central bank governor, Julio Velarde, has warned that the economic hit could exceed current estimates. He noted that fiscal reserves are already at a 25-year low.
That combination is the real constraint. Peru’s usual response to a coastal emergency is a large reconstruction programme financed from savings it no longer has.
The reconstruction fund created after the 2017 event became a byword for slow execution and corruption cases. Rebuilding the same institutions under a new name takes longer than a rainy season.
Peru also enters this with crime dominating its politics. A survey this week found 85% of Peruvians have changed their nighttime routines out of fear of crime or extortion.
Fighting an extortion wave and a flood season at once, with reserves at a generational low, is what Fujimori inherited. None of those three problems started in July.
More: Peru news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is an extraordinary El Nino?
The strongest category used by Peru’s national forecasting committee. Peru’s committee puts the probability of one between September 2026 and January 2027 at 62%.
What area is under emergency?
A 60-day emergency declaration covers 893 districts across 22 regions.
Why does El Nino hit Peru so hard?
Because warming of the eastern Pacific brings heavy rain to a desert coast with little drainage. The 1997-98 and 2017 events both caused major flooding.
What is works-for-taxes?
A Peruvian mechanism allowing companies to discharge tax liabilities by building public infrastructure directly. The government is adding a services version alongside it.
Sources: Infobae Perú, Exitosa Noticias.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
Read More from The Rio Times