Oil Eases, Hormuz Crisis Keeps Crude Above US$100
Key Facts
- WTI futures fell 1.58% with the October 2026 contract down US$1.61 to settle at US$100.30 per barrel on Friday, September 18, 2026, on Nymex settlement data reported by Bloomberg.
- USO slipped 0.96% closing at US$153.82 as the exchange-traded fund tracked the softer WTI session into triple-digit territory.
- Saudi Arabia cut Europe off telling term customers they will receive no October crude while pushing roughly 60 million barrels back through the Persian Gulf.
- Macron called for emergency releases pressing the G7 to coordinate oil stock releases as European diesel prices pushed into record territory.
- Guyana output passed its peak with national production easing from 918,000 barrels per day in February to 869,000 in June as the Liza 1 field matured.
- Petrobras ADR fell 0.67% to US$20.80 per New York-listed share even as the producer pressed ahead with pre-salt start-ups at Búzios and Mero.
Today’s Focus
Oil benchmarks softened on Friday, September 18, 2026, but stayed above the century mark. The October WTI contract settled at US$100.30 per barrel, down US$1.61 or 1.58%. November Brent settled at US$103.87, down 0.9%. Both figures come from Nymex and ICE settlements reported by Bloomberg.
The session’s real story came from the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco told at least two European refiners their October allocations would be zero, and French President Emmanuel Macron pushed G7 allies to coordinate another emergency oil stock release.
Latin America’s producers showed mixed reactions. Petrobras ADR dipped 0.67% to US$20.80 while Colombia’s Ecopetrol rose 1.15% to US$17.58 and Argentina’s YPF gained 0.88% to US$54.96.
Guyana’s long boom is entering a new phase, with national output slipping from its February peak. The Uaru project is set to lift capacity past one million barrels per day before the end of 2026.
What matters today. The market is pricing not a shortage of crude itself but of dependable delivery routes, and Latin American barrels look more valuable precisely because they do not pass through Hormuz.
01 The session in one read
Oil eased on Friday, September 18, 2026, but the scale of the calm was the real news. The October WTI futures contract settled at US$100.30 per barrel, down US$1.61 or 1.58%. November Brent settled at US$103.87, down 0.9%.
That relatively soft session came even as Saudi Arabia told European refiners they would receive no October crude at all. The Persian Gulf crisis has pushed diesel prices to records and prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to urge a new G7 emergency stock release.
Friday’s modest decline in crude prices obscures a market that is re-pricing reliability rather than raw supply. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not removed all Middle Eastern barrels from the market, but it has made their delivery conditional, slow and politically fragile. Europe’s abrupt loss of Saudi allocations, combined with Macron’s plea for coordinated stock releases, tells you the premium now reflects geography and logistics far more than outright scarcity. Latin America’s producers sit outside that chokepoint, which is why YPF and Ecopetrol advanced while Petrobras only edged lower. The variable to watch next week is whether any G7 emergency release materialises in time to cap European diesel prices before winter demand builds.
02 The board
The United States Oil Fund, which tracks front-month WTI futures, closed at US$153.82, down 0.96% on the day. The fund captures the benchmark’s slide from its recent highs while still reflecting a market priced well above US$100.
Latin America’s producer equities split. Petrobras ADR fell 0.67% to US$20.80 in New York, underperforming regional peers, while Colombia’s Ecopetrol rose 1.15% to US$17.58.
Argentina’s YPF gained 0.88% to US$54.96, a signal that investors still see Vaca Muerta barrels as a hedge against Middle East disruption.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$153.82 | -0.96% |
| Petrobras | US$20.80 | -0.67% |
| Ecopetrol | US$17.58 | +1.15% |
| YPF | US$54.96 | +0.88% |
Source: RT close, 2026-09-18. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
-0.41%
185,229.17
-0.41%
63,375.93
-0.78%
11,381.18
+1.30%
3,021,926
-1.29%
2,548.22
+1.05%
60,023.65
-1.13%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 185,229.17 | -0.41% | +21.85% | 185,992.03 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,381.18 | +1.30% | — | 11,235.60 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 63,375.93 | -0.78% | +12.17% | 63,873.32 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 3,021,926 | -1.29% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,548.22 | +1.05% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 60,023.65 | -1.13% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
03 What moved it
The session’s dominant driver remained the Hormuz crisis and its ripple effects across global trade. Saudi Aramco’s decision to cut off European term customers for October has effectively rerouted the continent’s crude map.
Macron’s call for another coordinated G7 stock release framed Friday’s tape; traders read it as a sign that governments are preparing for a prolonged disruption rather than a quick fix.
The International Energy Agency expects coal demand to rise this year as countries forced off oil and gas supplies turn back to the dirtiest fuel. That substitution effect is now a tangible demand-side story for the fourth quarter.
04 The Latin American read
Brazil’s Petrobras continues to advance its pre-salt programme even as its ADR slipped. The producer has started up the P-78 floating production unit in the Búzios field and raised stakes in the Mero and Atapu reservoirs.
Its São Paulo-listed preferred shares closed at R$48.50 (about US$9.43) on Friday, down just R$0.11 (about US$0.02) or 0.23%. That is a far milder move than the ADR’s 0.67% decline. Local and foreign investors are reading the same story differently.
Guyana remains the region’s growth engine. National output peaked at 918,000 barrels per day in February 2026 before easing for four consecutive months to 869,000 in June, as the pioneering Liza 1 field matured.
The Uaru development, using the Errea Wittu production ship, is designed to add around 250,000 barrels per day and is slated to start before year-end, lifting total capacity past one million barrels daily.
05 The names to watch
Petrobras is the anchor for investors seeking Latin American scale. Its New York-listed shares command a market capitalisation near US$134.2 billion, and its pre-salt assets remain among the world’s cheapest sources of offshore supply.
The Stabroek Block consortium remains the single source of Guyana’s oil, operated by ExxonMobil with 45%, alongside Chevron with 30% via the Hess acquisition and China’s CNOOC with 25%. Exxon’s longer-term target is 1.7 million barrels per day from eight developments by 2030.
YPF and Vaca Muerta offer a pure-play bet on non-Middle East, non-seaborne-chokepoint crude. Argentina’s growing pipeline and port infrastructure is quietly positioning the shale formation as a structural alternative supplier.
06 The outlook
The next two weeks will test whether governments can paper over the Hormuz shortfall with strategic reserves. If the G7 acts quickly, benchmark prices could ease further without breaking the triple-digit floor; if coordination stalls, diesel and jet fuel prices will do the tightening instead.
Latin America’s producers should remain supported so long as shipping through the Panama Canal and Suez Canal stays frantic and European buyers seek cargoes that never enter the Persian Gulf. Watch for any sign that Saudi Arabia restores even partial European allocations, which would be the fastest way to deflate the geography premium now embedded in every barrel.
07 What to watch
- G7 emergency stock release: Whether Macron’s push produces a coordinated release in coming weeks, which would cap diesel prices and could take US$3 to US$5 off Brent.
- Saudi European allocations: Any partial restoration of October term supplies to European refiners would signal the East-West pipeline repair is further along than the market believes.
- Guyana’s Uaru start-up: Commercial first oil before December would confirm the country’s push past one million barrels per day and shift its fiscal and export trajectory.
- Petrobras pre-salt output: Ramp-up of the P-78 unit at Búzios and higher stakes at Mero and Atapu could push Brazilian exports higher just as Europe hunts for non-Hormuz barrels.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil fall on September 18 despite the Hormuz crisis?
Traders booked profits after days of gains, and the prospect of a G7 emergency stock release eased immediate supply anxiety, leaving WTI down 1.58% on the day.
What does Saudi Arabia cutting Europe off for October mean?
It means term customers in Europe will receive no Saudi crude that month, forcing refiners to scramble for alternatives and pushing diesel prices into record territory.
Why are YPF and Ecopetrol rising while Petrobras slipped?
Investors are rewarding producers whose crude does not transit Hormuz; Argentina’s and Colombia’s exports are seen as cleaner, more secure barrels, while Petrobras faced a mild ADR correction.
Is Guyana’s oil boom over?
No. Output has eased from its February peak as the Liza 1 field matures, but the Uaru project should lift capacity past one million barrels per day before the end of 2026.
Market data: RT
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