Mexico’s Economy Grew Just 0.8 Percent in 2025 — A Fourth Straight Year of Slowdown

Mexico’s economy is not collapsing — it is slowly running out of momentum. And that may be the more dangerous problem.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexico news and Latin American financial news.

Final figures from INEGI confirmed growth of 0.8 percent for 2025, slightly above the preliminary estimate. That marks four straight years of deceleration from the 6.3 percent post-pandemic rebound in 2021, and sits well below the country’s 2 percent potential and its 1.8 percent historical average.

The breakdown reveals a split economy. Services grew 1.5 percent and agriculture expanded 4 percent, but they could not offset the contraction in industry, manufacturing, and construction — which shrank 1.1 percent. Those sectors represent 63.3 percent of GDP. Two-thirds of Mexico’s productive base was shrinking.

Bank of America and Bx+ have described the pattern as “chronic lack of growth.” The government’s supporters point to resilient employment, contained inflation, and World Cup infrastructure spending expected in 2026. Critics counter that business confidence is weak, private investment is stalling, and structural reforms have not materialized.

The fourth quarter offered a bright spot — 0.9 percent growth over the prior quarter — driven by lower rates, a stronger peso, and easing inflation. Goldman Sachs and Pantheon Macroeconomics called it positive but cautioned the foundation is fragile.

The biggest external risk is Washington. U.S. trade policy is unpredictable, and the T-MEC review — the framework governing most of Mexico’s exports — looms over investment decisions. For Latin America’s second-largest economy, the question is no longer whether growth is slowing but whether anything can reverse it.

For more context, read Brazil’s Morning Call and the Latin American Pulse.