Mexican Markets Rally As The Peso Pressures The Dollar And Lifts Local Equities

Key Points

• Peso strengthens to near-year lows for USD/MXN as the dollar index slumps after the Fed’s dovish turn.
• Mexican equities notch fresh record highs, driven by airport and industrial stocks, with strong foreign inflows.
• Technical signals show an overbought but still upward-biased market, with risks tied to U.S. trade noise and Banxico’s next steps.

The Mexican peso pushed the U.S. dollar to fresh 2025 lows early Friday, with USD/MXN trading around 18.02 after a night of steady downward pressure.

The pair now sits near a psychological floor that markets have probed all week, extending a rapid slide sparked by the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut and softer-than-expected U.S. data.

The dollar index slipped into the high-90s, its weakest level since October, reinforcing investors’ search for higher-yielding currencies.

Mexico remains a top beneficiary. With Banxico holding its benchmark at 7.25% and signaling that inflation risks require caution, the peso still offers one of the widest rate differentials in the emerging-market universe.

Traders describe a “carry-friendly” backdrop where Mexico screens as fundamentally healthier than many regional peers thanks to restrained public spending and sustained near-shoring inflows.

By contrast, left-leaning policy proposals circulating in parts of the region—such as heavier state intervention in energy—have reinforced Mexico’s relative appeal.

Technically, USD/MXN looks heavily tilted toward further peso strength. On the four-hour chart, the pair trades below every meaningful moving average, with MACD momentum deeply negative and the RSI holding in oversold territory.

The daily chart confirms the decisive break under 18.20–18.30, suggesting that any rebound faces resistance near 18.30–18.40, while a clean breach of 18.00 could open a path toward the mid-17s.

Mexican equities surged alongside the currency. The S&P/BMV IPC index jumped more than 2% on Thursday to a record 64,712, supported by strong foreign demand and the global hunt for undervalued, stable-policy markets. Industrial and consumer names led the move.

Top Winners:

1. Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (+6.0%)
2. Orbia (+5.3%)
3. Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (+5.0%)
4. Kimberly-Clark de México (+3.8%)
5. Cemex (+3.4%)

Top Losers:

1. Liverpool (–2.1%)
2. América Móvil (–1.9%)
3. Fibra Uno (–1.7%)
4. Banco del Bajío (–1.5%)
5. Bimbo (–1.3%)

Short-term charts show the IPC in overbought territory, with RSI in the high-60s and candles pushing above the upper Bollinger band.

Still, underlying momentum remains positive. Unless Banxico accelerates easing or Washington escalates tariff threats, investors appear comfortable keeping Mexico among their top global overweight positions.

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