Merval Gains 1.16% on Oil but Country Risk Tops 600

The Big Three

Market Snapshot

Merval Index Today: Equities

The Merval index today posted a second consecutive gain, rising 1.16% to 2,693,891 as the oil-price surge powered energy stocks to session leadership. Brent’s 7.3% spike to $110.81—its highest since July 2022—disproportionately benefited the Argentine market following the March 23 rebalance, which added Ecogás Inversiones and increased the panel’s energy-sector weighting. Infobae reported the BYMA session volume reached USD 389.7 million in the spot segment. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets.

The session’s most notable feature was the stark divergence between equities (+1.2%) and bonds (−0.9%). While the Merval rallied on oil-driven earnings optimism for Vaca Muerta producers, sovereign Bonares and Globales sold off as the Fed’s hawkish stance pressured EM fixed income globally. Country risk breached 600 bps again—reversing Tuesday’s drop to 593—underscoring that the bond market views the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance as a direct threat to Argentina’s sub-500 re-access target. For context, see our coverage of the 2.71% Merval crash when banks sold off on the oil shock. The Merval sits 18.28% below its January 28 ATH of 3,296,502.

Currency

The Argentine peso exchange rate today showed renewed strength as export supply overwhelmed morning dollar demand. The mayorista fell ARS 2 (−0.1%) to ARS 1,394—a new 2026 low since February 24. ABC Mercado de Cambios’ Nicolás Merino reported the session saw initial demand pushing to intraday highs of ARS 1,402.50 before exporters broke through, driving the rate down in a “staircase” pattern to find stability at ARS 1,394.

The BCRA’s floating band ceiling remained at approximately ARS 1,634, maintaining a 17.2% buffer above the spot rate. The dollar has now fallen ARS 61 (−4.2%) since the start of 2026. The Fed’s hawkish hold complicates the picture: higher U.S. rates narrow the carry-trade premium from Argentina’s 29% TNA, but the BCRA’s consistent buying streak and Vaca Muerta export flows continue to provide structural dollar supply that has been the peso’s anchor throughout the crisis.

Technical Analysis

The Merval closed at 2,693,891 with a constructive candle: the index opened at 2,663,049 near the session low of 2,661,792, rallied 46,754 points to 2,708,546, and closed in the upper portion of the range. The open-near-low, close-near-high structure is bullish, signaling sustained buying demand through the session despite the bond-market stress.

The MACD histogram reads 13,676 with the MACD line at −67,182 and signal at −80,858. The histogram has been positive for two consecutive sessions now, confirming that bearish momentum is fading even as the full crossover remains distant. The RSI at 45.66 on the 14-day and 37.90 on the signal show continued recovery from oversold levels, with the faster component approaching the 50 neutral line—a level it has not reached since early March.

Price remains above the 200-day SMA near 2,470,143, confirming the structural uptrend. The Ichimoku cloud overhead near 2,693,307–2,735,194 is the key zone: Wednesday’s high of 2,708,546 penetrated the cloud for the first time in the correction, a significant technical development. The close at 2,693,891 sits right at the cloud lower boundary (2,693,307)—a daily close above this level would confirm the index has entered the neutral zone after weeks of trading below the cloud.

Key Levels

Global Context

Wednesday’s session was dominated by two forces pulling in opposite directions. Brent crude surged 7.3% to $110.81—its highest since July 2022—as the Strait of Hormuz crisis deepened, pushing 2026 gains to 83%. WTI rose 3.8% to $99.11. For Argentina, this is unambiguously positive on the export side: Vaca Muerta producers benefit directly through higher realized prices and improved fiscal revenues from export duties.

However, the Fed’s hawkish hold crushed fixed-income markets globally. The FOMC voted 11-1 to maintain 3.50–3.75%, with the dot plot signaling one cut and seven members seeing none. Powell warned inflation progress has been slower than hoped. Wall Street sold off sharply: the Dow fell 1.63% to its 2026 low at 46,225, the S&P 500 lost 1.36%, and the Nasdaq shed 1.46%. For Argentina, the Fed’s stance directly pressures the sub-500 country risk target by making U.S. Treasuries more attractive relative to EM sovereign bonds.

Looking Ahead

Post-Fed Bond Digestion → Thursday: The equity-bond divergence is unsustainable. If sovereign bonds continue falling and country risk holds above 600, the equity rally will eventually lose support. Watch for whether the Merval can hold gains despite the fixed-income stress.

Merval Rebalance Active → Since March 23: The new panel with Ecogás replacing Telecom is now live, increasing energy-sector weighting. This structural shift means oil-price movements will have a larger impact on the index going forward—amplifying both upside in oil rallies and downside if crude retreats.

Agro Liquidation → April: The approaching harvest season should accelerate dollar supply in the official market, reinforcing the BCRA’s reserve-accumulation strategy and the peso’s structural strength.

Country Risk → Sub-500 Target Receding: The return above 600 on the Fed’s hawkish stance pushes the government further from its sovereign market re-access goal. With U.S. Treasury yields rising and EM risk premiums expanding, the timeline for sub-500 is extending.

Verdict

Wednesday exposed the deepening schizophrenia in Argentine markets. Equities rallied 1.16% on oil while bonds fell 0.9% on the Fed—a divergence that cannot persist. The Merval’s oil-driven gains are real (Vaca Muerta earnings directly benefit from $110 Brent), but the country risk returning above 600 signals that the bond market views the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance as a genuine threat to Argentina’s macro stabilization narrative.

Technically, the Merval’s penetration of the Ichimoku cloud (close at 2,693,891 vs cloud entry at 2,693,307) is the most significant technical event since the correction began. The MACD histogram positive for two consecutive sessions adds to the base-building evidence. However, the bond-equity divergence and country risk above 600 mean the recovery is built on a narrow energy-sector foundation rather than broad risk-appetite improvement.

The peso’s continued strength (mayorista at ARS 1,394, new 2026 low) provides the fundamental anchor, but the Fed’s hawkish stance narrows the carry premium and complicates the government’s debt strategy. Thursday will test whether equities can hold gains despite the Wall Street selloff (Dow −1.63%) and rising country risk.

Bias: Neutral with diverging signals. Equities cautiously bullish (cloud penetration, positive MACD histogram), bonds bearish (country risk >600, sovereign selloff). A daily close above 2,735,194 (Tenkan-sen) confirms the equity recovery. A country risk sustained above 620 would override the equity signal and shift bias to Bearish.

Key Facts

— Deep Dive

— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Latin America Stock Markets 2026: Ibovespa, Merval, COLCAP, IPSA and IPC Guide

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