The Big Three
The S&P Merval closed virtually flat at 2,999,341.73, up just 0.05% (+1,561 points) in a session that saw the index briefly pierce the 3-million level — touching an intraday high of 3,018,034 — before retreating. The muted close masks significant intraday volatility, with a session range of over 73,000 points between the high and the low of 2,944,673.
Milei’s labor reform has cleared Congress, and the government is now pivoting to an aggressive privatization program. IMPSA has already been sold, and freight rail, the Buenos Aires water utility, the postal service, and a coal mining firm are next. The reformed labor market is expected to attract foreign investment but friction is growing with Argentina’s industrial sector over the absence of subsidies and tariffs.
The fiscal surplus — Milei’s signature achievement — is under pressure as tax revenues have underperformed inflation for seven consecutive months. February saw a 10% real decline in revenue, and analysts warn the government may need additional spending cuts or one-off privatization revenues to maintain the 1.5% of GDP primary surplus target for 2026.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Merval Close | 2,999,341.73 | +0.05% (+1,561 pts) |
| Merval Session High | 3,018,033.68 | — |
| Merval Session Low | 2,944,673.20 | — |
| USD/ARS (official) | ~1,391.63 | +0.66% (peso ↓) |
| Inflation (Dec 2025 YoY) | ~31% | down from 41.3% Dec |
| Monthly CPI (Feb) | ~2.5% | stubborn |
| GDP Growth (2025) | 4.5% | IMF est. |
| Country Risk (EMBI) | declining | post-election tailwind |
02 Equities — Consolidation at the 3-Million Barrier
The Merval Argentina today traded in a tight range around the psychologically significant 3-million-point level, closing at 2,999,341.73 — essentially flat on the session. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Argentine stock market and Latin American financial markets.
The index opened at 2,997,780, rallied to an intraday high of 3,018,034, but failed to hold above the round number and retreated to a session low of 2,944,673 before recovering into the close. The 73,000-point intraday range — roughly 2.4% — indicates a market that is actively debating whether the Milei reform premium is fully priced. YPF, Grupo Financiero Galicia, and Transportadora de Gas del Sur remain the heaviest index weights, with financials and energy continuing to dominate flows.
The Merval is up approximately 8.5% over the past week and 7.3% over the past month, reflecting an extended rally since the midterm election results. However, it remains below its all-time high of 3,296,502 set on January 28, still roughly 9% below that peak. In USD terms, the picture is more complex: with the peso down nearly 30% over 12 months, dollar-denominated returns have been far more modest than the headline ARS numbers suggest.
03 Currency & The Crawling Band
The peso weakened 0.66% to 1,391.63 per dollar on April 1, continuing its gradual depreciation within the inflation-linked crawling band system introduced on January 1, 2026. Under the new framework, the band’s ceiling and floor adjust monthly based on lagged inflation data — a shift from the previous fixed 1% monthly crawl that had caused the peso to appreciate excessively in real terms.
The BCRA is simultaneously running a pre-announced reserve-buying program, purchasing approximately 5% of daily FX market volume. The central bank targets an increase in the monetary base from 4.2% to 4.8% of GDP by December 2026, requiring estimated dollar purchases of US$10–17 billion depending on money demand growth. The peso has traded in a range of roughly 1,370 to 1,492 over recent months, with the midterm election victory in October 2025 providing significant support. The parallel-official rate gap has narrowed substantially from its pre-reform levels, but analysts at the Peterson Institute warn the inflation-indexed band introduces new inertia risks.
04 Technical Analysis — Merval Daily
The Merval is trading at 2,999,342, sitting just below the 3-million psychological resistance. The index is positioned between its key moving averages: the 50-day near 2,906,542, which is rising and acting as dynamic support, and the broader cluster of moving averages in the 2,833,716–2,859,328 zone. The 200-day moving average near 2,497,032 is well below, confirming the secular uptrend remains intact. The Bollinger Bands show the index near the midline of its recent range, with the upper band near 2,970,061 — already breached intraday — suggesting a test of the all-time high at 3,296,502 is possible if momentum builds.
The MACD at 44,105.52 is positive with the signal line at 30,020.45, but the histogram at −14,085.07 shows decelerating momentum — a yellow flag after the recent rally. The RSI at 65.28 is approaching overbought territory (70), suggesting the index may need to consolidate before the next leg higher. A secondary momentum oscillator at 50.61 is neutral, confirming the market is in transition between the recent rally and the next directional move.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Merval |
| All-Time High (Jan 28) | 3,296,502 |
| Session High / Resistance | 3,018,034 |
| Current Close | 2,999,341.73 |
| Upper Bollinger / Resistance | 2,970,061 |
| 50-Day MA / Support 1 | 2,906,542 |
| Support 2 (MA cluster) | 2,833,716–2,859,328 |
| Support 3 | 2,767,308 |
| 200-Day MA | 2,497,032 |
06 News in Focus
Labor Reform Clears Congress — Privatizations Next
Having gained a working majority in Congress following the October 2025 midterm elections, Milei’s La Libertad Avanza secured passage of a market-friendly labor reform bill that weakens the historically powerful unions’ grip on the employment market. The government is now pivoting to privatizations: metallurgical firm IMPSA has been sold, and the next wave includes Argentina’s principal freight rail carrier, the Buenos Aires water and sewage company, the national postal service, a coal mining firm, and partial privatization of the two nuclear power plants. Economy Minister Federico Sturzenegger, MIT-educated and dedicated to “deregulation and state transformation,” is leading the push.
Fiscal Surplus Under Strain
Milei’s signature fiscal achievement is facing its first real test. Tax revenues have underperformed inflation for seven straight months, with February showing a 10% real decline. Lower sales tax collection — both domestic and customs-related — explains roughly a third of the revenue shortfall, according to Banco Mariva. Higher unemployment is also weighing on social security contributions. The government is cutting energy and transport subsidies, translating to higher utility bills and commute costs, but the politically easier cuts have already been made. Analysts still forecast a primary surplus of ARS 16.1 trillion (US$11.7 billion) for 2026, but the 1.5% of GDP target looks increasingly tight.
US$19 Billion in Debt Maturities Loom
Argentina faces debt maturities exceeding US$19 billion in 2026, a critical test for the government’s credibility with international markets. The US$20 billion IMF Extended Fund Facility agreed in April 2025 provides a backstop, with US$12 billion disbursed upfront and additional tranches tied to reform benchmarks. The US Treasury’s $20 billion support package, confirmed earlier this year, further stabilizes the framework. The question is whether Argentina can re-access international capital markets to refinance maturities with private creditors — a step that hinges on maintaining the fiscal surplus and continued disinflation.
Vaca Muerta and RIGI Drive Investment
Argentina ended 2025 with record oil production and an energy surplus, driven by the Vaca Muerta shale formation. The RIGI investment incentive regime — offering 30-year tax, customs, and regulatory relief for investments over US$200 million — has attracted US$31 billion in announced commitments in mining alone, with further projects in energy and technology. Argentine and German companies recently agreed to cooperate on LNG supply, and the government is positioning Argentina as a potential hub for artificial intelligence, leveraging cheap energy and lean regulation.
07 Global Context
Argentina’s consolidation phase unfolds against a supportive but complex external backdrop. The relationship with the Trump administration has been a tailwind — the US Treasury swap facility, IMF backing, and diplomatic alignment on Venezuela have all bolstered investor confidence. However, tensions within Mercosur, limited trade complementarity with the United States, and China’s strategic influence in Argentine infrastructure and agriculture add layers of complexity. Elevated global oil prices support Vaca Muerta export revenues but raise domestic energy costs at a time when the government is cutting subsidies. The narrowing Fed–BCRA rate differential and potential for a US rate hike by year-end could reduce appetite for Argentine local-currency debt.
08 Looking Ahead
The Merval’s inability to hold above 3 million points on Tuesday sets up a key technical test. The index needs to clear and close above 3,018,034 (Tuesday’s session high) to open the path toward the January all-time high at 3,296,502. A sustained failure at 3 million would likely trigger a pullback to the 50-day moving average at 2,906,542.
The macro calendar is dense: the next inflation print will determine whether monthly CPI remains sticky near 2.5% or resumes its downward trajectory toward the government’s single-digit target for 2027. The privatization pipeline — particularly freight rail and the water utility — will test whether Milei can avoid the corruption-tainted precedent of the Menem-era selloffs. The 2026 debt repayment schedule peaks in the coming months, and any wobble in IMF benchmark compliance could rattle bond markets. Agriculture, energy, and mining continue to carry growth while manufacturing, construction, and retail lag — a two-speed economy that complicates both fiscal and monetary policy.
09 Verdict
Tuesday’s session was a battle for the 3-million level, and the bulls blinked first. The intraday breakout above 3,018,034 attracted sellers, and the retreat to close just below 3 million tells us the market is not yet ready to pay up for the next leg of the Milei rally. The +0.05% close flatters the bears — the session was more contested than the headline suggests.
Bias: Neutral, with medium-term bullish tilt. The reform narrative is real — labor reform passed, privatizations are launching, and the IMF/US Treasury backstop provides institutional credibility that Argentina has not had in decades. But the market has priced much of this in: the Merval is up 29% over 12 months in peso terms, the RSI is at 65.28 nearing overbought, and the MACD histogram is decelerating. The fiscal revenue shortfall is the nearest risk — if March confirms another month of real revenue decline, the “fiscal surplus is non-negotiable” mantra will face its sternest test. A clean break above 3 million on volume would be the buy signal; until then, the prudent approach is to hold existing positions and wait for the next catalyst.
This report was published by The Rio Times. For daily coverage of Latin American markets, read our Latin American Pulse and Brazil Morning Call.