Iron Ore Plunges on China Steel Inventory Surge

Iron ore futures tumbled 2.05% to $101.45 per metric ton on Monday morning as Chinese steel inventories climbed and factory activity weakened.

The SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China index opened sharply lower after weekend concerns about deteriorating demand fundamentals from the world’s largest steel consumer.

Steel stockpiles at major Chinese mills jumped 4% between August 11-20 to reach 15.67 million tons, according to official data. This inventory buildup signals softer domestic consumption despite targeted production cuts in key steel hubs.

The accumulation occurred even as daily hot metal production hovered around 2.4 million tons, creating a disconnect between supply restrictions and actual demand.

China’s manufacturing sector remains under pressure with the PMI staying contractionary for the fifth consecutive month.

Steel exports surged 11.4% in the first seven months of 2025, yet export prices fell 13.3% year-over-year to $442 per ton, squeezing margins and reducing raw material appetite.

Baosteel expects national steel exports to exceed 100 million tons this year but warns of fourth-quarter declines due to rising tariffs and tax changes.

The technical picture turned bearish overnight with futures breaking below the psychological $102 level that had provided support since late August.

Trading volumes spiked to 52,100 contracts as the September contract neared its final month before expiry on September 30. The daily chart shows iron ore testing critical support at $100 per ton, with the next major level at $96.

Market makers report elevated selling pressure in Asian trading hours as the Global Liquidity Index, shown by the yellow line on charts, declined from recent highs.

The relative strength index dropped into oversold territory below 30, while moving averages turned negative for the first time since early August. Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased volatility as prices approached the lower band.

Despite August’s 2.8% monthly gain marking the first consecutive advance of 2025, momentum indicators suggest further weakness ahead.

Chinese crude steel production fell 3.1% in the first seven months to 594.47 million tons, with June output dropping 9.2% year-over-year to 83.2 million tons.

The property sector crisis continues weighing on construction demand, with new home sales by top developers declining 16.9% annually in recent months.

Supply additions loom as Rio Tinto‘s Guinea Simandou project prepares for November startup, potentially adding 120 million tons of annual capacity.

Australian shipments increased 2% while Brazilian exports rose 6% in the January-September period versus 2024 levels.

Analysts at Trading Economics forecast prices reaching $103.68 per ton by quarter-end, though medium-term projections point to $95-90 range through 2026.

The Global Liquidity Index decline reflects broader commodity weakness as investors rotate toward safe-haven assets. Silver hit 14-year highs above $40 per ounce, contrasting sharply with industrial metals facing Chinese demand headwinds.

This divergence highlights how monetary policy expectations drive precious metals while manufacturing fundamentals dominate base commodity pricing.

Iron ore’s breakdown below $102 support suggests further testing of the $100 psychological level, with technical indicators confirming bearish momentum despite oversold readings that could trigger short-term bounces.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.