Chile’s IPSA Edges Down 0.34% After Navy Day But Breaks Four-Week Losing Streak
Chile IPSA stock market report: the S&P IPSA slipped 0.34% to 10,563.88 on Friday May 22, the first session back after Thursday’s Navy Day (Día de las Glorias Navales) closure. The shallow giveback came on thin volumes after Wednesday’s +2.40% Iran-detente rally. Weekly print: +1.4% in pesos and +2% USD-adjusted, breaking a four-week losing streak. Copper held near $6.14/lb after Cochilco raised its 2026 forecast to $5.55/lb Tuesday May 19. Bci (−3%), Cencosud (−2.9%) and SQM-B (−1.3%) led Friday’s decliners.
The Big Three
IPSA closed Friday at 10,563.88 (−0.34%, −35.81 pts), the first session after the May 21 Navy Day market closure. Range 10,530.46–10,633.08: opened near 10,600, pushed to the day high then drifted lower into a mid-range close. Transaction volumes were “relatively low” per Diario Financiero; this was profit-taking digestion, not a fresh leg lower. Bci (−3%), Cencosud (−2.9%), Banco de Chile (−1.7%) and SQM-B (−1.3%) led the decliners.
Despite Friday’s slip, IPSA posted +1.4% in pesos on the week and +2% USD-adjusted, breaking a four-week losing streak. The driver was Wednesday May 20’s +2.40% rally on Iran de-escalation hopes (10 of 11 names higher, Industrials led). Friday gave back a fraction; the holiday-shortened week landed in the green column.
Copper is doing the structural work. Cochilco raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to $5.55 per pound Tuesday May 19 (from $4.95 in February); 2027 was lifted to $5.10. London Metal Exchange three-month copper hit a record $6.33/lb during the week and closed Friday at $6.14/lb per Cochilco. Each one-cent annual rise adds $20–25 million to Chilean state revenues via Codelco surpluses and the mining tax — the fiscal anchor under Chilean equities.
02 Session Data
| Metric | Value | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| IPSA close (Fri) | 10,563.88 | −0.34% | First session post Navy Day |
| Intraday range | 10,530.46–10,633.08 | 102.62 pts | Thin volumes per Diario Financiero |
| Weekly print (peso) | +1.4% | USD +2.0% | Breaks 4-week losing streak |
| Bci (BCI) | CLP varies | −3.0% | Worst index decliner Friday |
| Cencosud, BoChile, SQM-B | −1.3 to −2.9% | Profit-taking | Retailers, financials, lithium |
| Copper LME 3-mo | $6.14/lb | −0.06% | Hit record $6.33 during week |
| RSI (fast/slow) | 44.93 / 42.41 | Fast > slow | Recovering below midline |
| MACD (hist/line/sig) | −28.59 / −85.04 / −113.63 | Healing | Line above signal, narrowing |
Live Market IntelligenceChile — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Chile — Live Market Board
-1.16%
188,268.59
+1.42%
64,499.43
-0.49%
11,238.63
-1.16%
3,157,852
+1.53%
2,626.71
+1.65%
60,702.89
-2.19%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPSA | 11,238.63 | -1.16% | — | 11,370.12 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| COPPER | 6.61 | +0.03% | +46.70% | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.61 | 39,543 |
| SQM-B | 65,305 | -0.84% | +49.03% | 65,860 | 66,949 | 64,978 | 76,539 |
| COPEC | 5,964 | -1.09% | -11.70% | 6,030 | 6,100 | 5,960 | 634,331 |
| BSANTANDER | 78.37 | -2.28% | +35.94% | 80.20 | 81.69 | 78.34 | 36,288,711 |
| FALABELLA | 6,334 | -1.48% | +23.28% | 6,429 | 6,450 | 6,300 | 26,085,814 |
| ENELAM | 87.09 | +0.10% | -10.13% | 87.00 | 87.40 | 86.50 | 13,106,417 |
| CENCOSUD | 1,946 | -2.19% | -35.30% | 1,990 | 2,010 | 1,945 | 966,528 |
| CMPC | 1,020 | -1.96% | -29.10% | 1,040 | 1,050 | 1,015 | 3,526,677 |
| BANCO CHILE | 184.96 | -1.01% | +32.87% | 186.85 | 189.99 | 184.33 | 18,101,240 |
| LATAM AIR | 24.08 | -1.11% | +16.61% | 24.35 | 24.59 | 23.88 | 573,612,753 |
| SOUTHERN COPPER | 193.97 | -0.26% | +104.01% | 194.48 | 199.36 | 192.59 | 367,102 |
03 Why It Held
Local Driver: Copper at near-record, Cochilco forecast raised
Two Chile-specific catalysts compounded. Cochilco raised its 2026 copper forecast to $5.55/lb Tuesday May 19 (from $4.95) and lifted 2027 to $5.10/lb. London three-month copper hit a record $6.33/lb during the week, closing Friday at $6.14/lb. Each one-cent annual rise adds $20–25M to state revenues via Codelco surpluses and the mining tax — the fiscal anchor under Chilean equities is the strongest in years.
External Trigger: Iran detente hopes drove Wednesday, Warsh era opens
Wednesday’s +2.40% rally was an Iran de-escalation trade; Brazil rose 1.77% the same day. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair Friday during Chile’s holiday-shortened week; traders now price the Fed to hold through 2026 with hike risk for 2027. Wall Street closed at records into Memorial Day. Chile’s Friday giveback on light volume is the cleanest LATAM candle of the day.
Key Facts
— Chile is LATAM’s quiet outperformer of the Warsh-era opening week. IPSA broke a four-week losing streak with +1.4% in pesos and +2% USD-adjusted on a holiday-shortened calendar — a structural turn the Friday −0.34% does not undo. Navy Day eliminated the Thursday session that hit Brazil and Colombia; Chile’s tape was structurally insulated.
— The copper story does the structural work. Cochilco’s revision to $5.55/lb reflects a “tensionado” supply picture with London three-month touching record $6.33/lb — translating to fiscal tailwinds and peso appreciation. Friday’s decliners clustered around domestic consumer/financial names (Bci, Cencosud, Banco de Chile, SQM-B), not the copper exporters that anchor the index thesis.
05 Technical Snapshot
IPSA 10,563.88 sits at the Kijun/cloud cluster, with 10,513 below as support and 10,577 above as cloud-top resistance. MACD line at −85.04 above signal −113.63 with histogram −28.59 — bearish structure healing not deepening, hinting at a possible bullish cross. RSI fast 44.93 above slow 42.41 is the second-cleanest momentum posture in LATAM (after Argentina). 200-DMA in the 9,500 zone remains well below.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Key Facts
— Chile is LATAM’s quiet outperformer of the Warsh-era opening. The Navy Day calendar quirk insulated the tape from Thursday’s worst, and copper at near-record levels with a fresh Cochilco upgrade provides the structural underpinning. Friday’s −0.34% on thin volumes is post-holiday digestion, not a regime break. The 10,513 BB lower is the line that separates digestion from a fresh leg lower; everything above keeps the MACD healing thesis intact.
— Related: Navy Day pre-open brief · LATAM weekly recap · May 20 regional decoupling.
— Copper carries the case: as long as London prints above $6, the structural anchor stays.
Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.
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