Ibovespa Advances As Inflation Stays In-Bounds And Global Risk-On Spreads

Key Points

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• Brazil’s benchmark rose as 2025 inflation stayed inside the central bank’s tolerance band, keeping rate-cut hopes alive.

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• Record U.S. closes after a soft payroll, higher oil, and firmer Europe/Asia sessions supported Brazil’s tone.

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• The uptrend remains intact, but momentum is stretched near resistance, making selectivity crucial.

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\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nThe Ibovespa gained 0.27% on Friday to 163,370.31, ending the week up 1.76%, with cash turnover of R$22.9 billion ($4.2 billion). The spot dollar slipped 0.43% to 5.3658 per $1.\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nThe inflation print rewarded policy discipline. IPCA rose 0.33% in December and 2025 closed at 4.26%, inside the 3% target plus/minus 1.5 percentage points.\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nCapital Economics’ Kimberley Sperrfechter said the print “leaves the door just about open” to a cut later this month, even if many desks still look to March.\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nTrade politics also helped sentiment after the European Union backed the EU–Mercosur deal track; Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said the government hopes it can enter into force in 2026.\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nAbroad, investors leaned into risk. The U.S. added just 50,000 jobs in December, and Ameriprise strategist Anthony Saglimbene said the week’s data looked “mostly within expectations” as U.S. equities hit record closes. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.37% to 609.67.\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n

Ibovespa Advances As Inflation Stays In-Bounds And Global Risk-On Spreads

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nJapan rose 1.61% and Hong Kong 0.32%. Brent jumped 2.28% to $63.34 a barrel, lifting Petrobras.\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nVale fell about 1% after Safra turned neutral and said no extra dividends before mid-2027. U.S. military action in Venezuela stayed on the radar.\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nAmong the day’s winners were São Martinho (+5.82%), Multiplan (+4.25%), Cogna (+3.95%), Cury (+3.81%), and Raízen (+3.66%).\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nCogna rose after UBS BB revised estimates higher, and Multiplan drew attention to a BH Shopping stake-sale MoU worth R$285 million ($53 million).\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nLosers included Assaí (-4.22%), Azzas 2154 (-4.13%), Magazine Luiza (-3.69%), GPA (-3.27%), and Brava (-2.29%).\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nGPA slid after its CFO and IR chief resigned, while rate-sensitive cyclicals lagged as parts of the short and mid DI curve firmed.\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nOn charts, the picture is bullish but crowded. Weekly RSI is near 71.6, while daily and 4-hour RSIs hover around 62.\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\nThe index is consolidating below 164,263, with support around 162.8k–163.0k and then 162.3k–162.5k.\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\n

For broader market context, see Brazil’s Morning Call for this date. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Brazilian stock market and Latin American financial markets. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Brazilian real exchange rate and Latin American financial markets.

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For the latest currency context, see our USD/BRL exchange rate analysis for this date.

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For the latest currency context, see our USD/BRL exchange rate analysis for this date.

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For the latest currency context, see our USD/BRL exchange rate analysis for this date.

For the latest currency context, see our USD/BRL exchange rate analysis for this date.

For B3 equity market context, see The Rio Times’ Ibovespa session report for the same date.

For the macro context, see Brazil’s Morning Call for the same date.