Guyana Oil Debt Hits US$7.7 Billion in 2026: Curse Fears
Economy · Guyana
Key Facts
—The headline. Kaieteur News reports that Guyana’s debt has risen sixfold in the six years since first oil.
—The figures. Official numbers show public debt climbing from about US$1.8 billion in 2019 to more than US$7.7 billion in 2026.
—The oil take. Guyana has earned just over US$7.8 billion in oil revenue since 2019, of which roughly US$4.6 billion has been withdrawn from its Natural Resource Fund.
—The service cost. The country paid about US$110 million to service debt in the first half of 2025, nearly half of it interest.
—The warning. Analysts caution that Guyana is “rich on paper” while risking the debt crises that struck other oil states.
Six years into its oil boom, Guyana is richer than ever on paper, yet its public debt has swelled several times over, reviving fears that the world’s fastest-growing economy could still fall into a familiar resource-curse trap.
Borrowing in the Middle of a Boom
Guyana’s economy has expanded at world-leading rates since ExxonMobil’s consortium began pumping oil offshore in 2019. Yet rather than shrink, the country’s debt has grown, climbing from about US$1.8 billion to more than US$7.7 billion.
Kaieteur News frames the jump as a sixfold rise in six years. However the multiple is measured, the direction is unambiguous: liabilities are rising alongside the windfall.
For a foreign reader, it helps to understand that public debt is the total amount a government owes to lenders, both at home and abroad. When a country borrows, it typically issues bonds or takes loans to fund infrastructure, social programs, or budget shortfalls.
In a fast-growing economy, debt can be a sensible tool—provided the growth it fuels outpaces the cost of repaying it. The worry here is that Guyana’s borrowing is accelerating even as oil revenues pour in, which is the opposite of what orthodox fiscal advice would prescribe for a commodity boom.
Where the Oil Money Has Gone
Guyana has booked just over US$7.8 billion in oil revenue since 2019, with roughly US$4.6 billion already drawn down from the Natural Resource Fund. The government argues that heavy borrowing and spending are needed to build roads, power and schools before the oil peaks.
Critics counter that taking on debt while banking record oil income is exactly the pattern that has undone other producers. The question is whether today’s investment produces lasting growth or tomorrow’s repayment strain.
The Natural Resource Fund is a sovereign wealth vehicle designed to save a portion of oil earnings for future generations and to insulate the budget from volatile crude prices. Drawing down US$4.6 billion from it signals that the state is spending aggressively today.
Whether that spending is building assets that will outlast the oil—such as flood defences, a more educated workforce, or reliable electricity—is the central debate in Georgetown. Without those durable assets, the country could be left with debt and depleted reserves once the wells run dry.
The Cost of Carrying the Debt
Servicing that debt is already a visible line item. Guyana paid about US$110 million in the first half of 2025 alone, with nearly half going to interest.
Those payments are manageable while oil revenue climbs. They become dangerous if prices fall or production disappoints, leaving obligations fixed but income shrinking.
To put that US$110 million in perspective, debt service competes directly with spending on healthcare, education, and public safety. When interest costs eat up a growing share of the national budget, a government has less room to respond to a downturn or a natural disaster.
Guyana, situated on the hurricane-prone Caribbean coast, faces climate risks that make fiscal buffers especially important. A sudden drop in oil prices—something the world has seen repeatedly—would squeeze the budget from both sides, cutting revenue just as debt payments remain fixed.
The Resource-Curse Question
Economists have long warned that sudden oil wealth can weaken institutions and inflate borrowing. Guyana’s leaders insist their Natural Resource Fund and fiscal rules guard against that fate.
For investors and the region, the stakes are large: Guyana is a rare Latin American growth story built on a single, volatile commodity. How it manages debt now will shape whether the boom becomes durable prosperity.
The term “resource curse” describes a paradox observed in many developing nations: discovering vast natural wealth often leads to less economic diversification, weaker governance, and higher inequality rather than broad-based development. It happens because commodity exports can push up a country’s exchange rate, making other industries uncompetitive, while the flood of revenue can reduce the incentive to build strong tax systems and accountable institutions.
Guyana’s fiscal rules were written precisely to avoid this trap, but their effectiveness depends on enforcement and political will—both of which will be tested as oil production scales up.
What to watch next is whether the gap between oil earnings and new borrowing narrows or widens in the next budget cycle. Another open question is how much of the borrowed money is tied to projects with measurable economic returns, versus general spending.
Observers will also be tracking the interest rate on new debt: if global rates stay elevated, the cost of rolling over existing obligations could climb. Finally, the trajectory of global oil demand—shaped by the energy transition—will determine whether Guyana’s bet on accelerated development ahead of a possible demand peak pays off or leaves the country exposed.
More: Latin America news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much has Guyana’s debt risen since first oil?
Official figures show public debt climbing from about US$1.8 billion in 2019 to more than US$7.7 billion in 2026; Kaieteur News characterizes the increase as sixfold.
How much oil revenue has Guyana earned?
Guyana has earned just over US$7.8 billion in oil revenue since 2019, of which about US$4.6 billion has been withdrawn from its Natural Resource Fund.
Why is the debt increase a concern?
Analysts warn that borrowing heavily while banking record oil income mirrors the resource-curse trap that has hurt other oil producers, especially if prices fall.
Sources
Sources: Kaieteur News.
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