Guyana’s Debt Has Ballooned Since First Oil, Raising Resource-Curse Fears

Economy · Guyana

Six years into its oil boom, Guyana is richer than ever on paper, yet its public debt has swelled several times over, reviving fears that the world’s fastest-growing economy could still fall into a familiar resource-curse trap.

Borrowing in the Middle of a Boom

Guyana’s economy has expanded at world-leading rates since ExxonMobil’s consortium began pumping oil offshore in 2019. Yet rather than shrink, the country’s debt has grown, climbing from about US$1.8 billion to more than US$7.7 billion.

Kaieteur News frames the jump as a sixfold rise in six years. However the multiple is measured, the direction is unambiguous: liabilities are rising alongside the windfall.

Where the Oil Money Has Gone

Guyana has booked just over US$7.8 billion in oil revenue since 2019, with roughly US$4.6 billion already drawn down from the Natural Resource Fund. The government argues that heavy borrowing and spending are needed to build roads, power and schools before the oil peaks.

Critics counter that taking on debt while banking record oil income is exactly the pattern that has undone other producers. The question is whether today’s investment produces lasting growth or tomorrow’s repayment strain.

The Cost of Carrying the Debt

Servicing that debt is already a visible line item. Guyana paid about US$110 million in the first half of 2025 alone, with nearly half going to interest.

Those payments are manageable while oil revenue climbs. They become dangerous if prices fall or production disappoints, leaving obligations fixed but income shrinking.

The Resource-Curse Question

Economists have long warned that sudden oil wealth can weaken institutions and inflate borrowing. Guyana’s leaders insist their Natural Resource Fund and fiscal rules guard against that fate.

For investors and the region, the stakes are large: Guyana is a rare Latin American growth story built on a single, volatile commodity. How it manages debt now will shape whether the boom becomes durable prosperity.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much has Guyana’s debt risen since first oil?

Official figures show public debt climbing from about US$1.8 billion in 2019 to more than US$7.7 billion in 2026; Kaieteur News characterizes the increase as sixfold.

How much oil revenue has Guyana earned?

Guyana has earned just over US$7.8 billion in oil revenue since 2019, of which about US$4.6 billion has been withdrawn from its Natural Resource Fund.

Why is the debt increase a concern?

Analysts warn that borrowing heavily while banking record oil income mirrors the resource-curse trap that has hurt other oil producers, especially if prices fall.

Sources

• Kaieteur News
• Kaieteur News (Nov 2025)