A small dollarized economy that markets once treated as a default risk is slowly winning back the confidence of the people who lend it money.
If you live, work, or invest anywhere in Latin America, Ecuador’s credit rating and trade surplus just flashed a hopeful sign. In the first half of 2026 the country sold far more abroad than it bought, and the agencies that grade its debt have started to nudge their scores in the right direction.
Key Facts
- Record surplus Ecuador posted a US$2.34 billion trade surplus in the first half of 2026, a record for the period, according to the Banco Central del Ecuador.
- Bigger exports Exports reached US$19.571 billion and imports US$17.232 billion from January to June 2026.
- Ratings lift Moody’s upgraded Ecuador to ‘Caa1’ in January 2026 — reportedly its first upgrade from that agency in about six years.
- S&P steady S&P Global Ratings holds Ecuador at ‘B-’ and moved its outlook to stable in 2025; Fitch upgraded Ecuador to ‘B-’ in November 2025.
- Dollar economy Ecuador uses the US dollar, so these figures need no currency conversion.
- IMF anchor A US$4 billion IMF program agreed in 2024, later topped up, backs President Daniel Noboa’s reforms.
A record half-year for exports
Between January and June 2026, Ecuador ran a trade surplus of US$2.34 billion. That is the gap between what it sold to the world and what it bought from it.
Exports came in at US$19.571 billion. Imports were US$17.232 billion. The Banco Central del Ecuador, the country’s central bank, called the export figure a record for a first half-year.
Why does that matter? A steady surplus brings dollars into the economy, and in a country that runs on the US dollar, those dollars are the fuel that keeps banks lending and importers paying their bills.
What Ecuador’s credit rating and trade surplus mean for you
A trade surplus is simple. It means a country earns more from selling goods abroad than it spends buying them, so more money flows in than out.
A sovereign credit rating is a report card on a government’s debt. Agencies like S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s grade how likely a country is to pay lenders back on time.
Higher grades usually mean a government can borrow more cheaply. That frees up cash for roads, schools, and hospitals instead of interest payments.
The ratings turnaround, step by step
Here it pays to be precise, because the three big agencies did different things. S&P Global Ratings kept Ecuador at ‘B-’ and, in August 2025, lifted its outlook from negative to stable — a signal of confidence rather than a full upgrade.
The actual upgrades came next. Fitch raised Ecuador to ‘B-’ in November 2025, and Moody’s followed in January 2026 with a two-notch move to ‘Caa1’, reported as its first upgrade of Ecuador in roughly six years.
All three grades still sit deep in “speculative” territory, which means lending to Ecuador remains risky. But the direction of travel is up, not down.
What is driving the numbers
Oil is still Ecuador’s biggest earner, at US$4.920 billion. Right behind it sits shrimp at US$4.698 billion, the star of the country’s non-oil exports.
Mining brought in US$2.634 billion and bananas and plantains US$2.631 billion. Cacao was the weak spot, with sales down about 57% after a price boom cooled off.
The map of buyers is shifting too. China has become the main destination for Ecuadorian shrimp and mining products, while Russia has grown into a leading market for its bananas.
Why this matters across the region
Ecuador is a test case. A few years ago its country-risk premium topped 2,000 basis points; by late 2025 it had fallen to around 767, and international reserves climbed toward US$8.9 billion.
The reforms sit inside an International Monetary Fund program, whose fifth review the IMF concluded in April 2026 with a fresh disbursement of about US$394 million. President Daniel Noboa, re-elected in 2025, has tied his record to keeping that program on track.
If you hold Ecuadorian bonds, run a business that trades with the country, or simply watch the region, this is the slow, unglamorous work of a recovery taking hold. Nothing here is guaranteed — the grades are still low and oil prices can swing — but the numbers are pointing the right way for the first time in years.
More: Ecuador news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Sources: Banco Central del Ecuador; El Universo; S&P Global Ratings; Fitch Ratings; Moody’s Ratings; LatinFinance; International Monetary Fund.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did S&P upgrade Ecuador’s credit rating?
No. S&P held Ecuador at ‘B-’ and revised its outlook to stable in 2025. The clear rating upgrades came from Fitch in November 2025 and Moody’s in January 2026.
How big was Ecuador’s 2026 trade surplus?
Ecuador recorded a US$2.34 billion trade surplus in the first half of 2026, with exports of US$19.571 billion and imports of US$17.232 billion, per the Banco Central del Ecuador.
What does a sovereign credit rating actually measure?
It measures how likely a government is to repay its debt on time. Better grades usually let a country borrow at lower interest rates.
Does Ecuador use its own currency?
No. Ecuador has used the US dollar since 2000, so its trade and debt figures are already in dollars and need no conversion.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error