The $3.6 Billion Deal Petro Killed Now Haunts Ecopetrol

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The Ecopetrol CrownRock deal that never happened is back in the headlines, because Colombia’s incoming government wants the country to count what one presidential veto may have cost it.

Almost two years on, the most expensive decision of the Petro era is being re-examined. It was not a budget or a tax, but a deal that Ecopetrol was stopped from doing.

The company is Colombia’s largest, listed in Bogotá and in New York. The asset was a slice of some of the most productive oil acreage in the United States.

What the Ecopetrol CrownRock deal was

The plan, known internally as Project Oslo, would have given Ecopetrol up to a 30% stake in CrownRock’s assets in the Permian Basin in Texas. The price tag was around US$3.6 billion.

The acreage was operated alongside Occidental Petroleum, a partner Ecopetrol had worked with in the Permian since 2019. The American basin had become one of the brightest spots in the Colombian company’s output.

Inside the company the deal had cleared every hurdle. Technical, financial and regulatory reviews were done, and the board approved it by a majority of seven votes to two.

The day the president said no

Then politics intervened. At a meeting in Piedecuesta, near Bucaramanga, on the last day of July 2024, President Gustavo Petro told Ecopetrol’s leadership he was against it.

His reasons were three, set out in a resignation letter two directors later filed: the deal involved fracking, it would raise the company’s debt, and it would send Colombian money abroad. Without the government’s backing, the board reversed course on the very last day it could do so without penalty.

Two independent directors quit in protest. Minority shareholders weighed legal action, arguing the reversal hurt the company’s reserves and its value.

Putting a number on the loss

This is where the autopsy gets uncomfortable. The decision did not just forgo a stake; it forgo a stake whose value then climbed as Permian prices and output rose.

One analysis cited by El Colombiano estimates that blocking the roughly US$3.6 billion investment generated a potential loss of as much as US$8.4 billion in foregone upside. By that reading the asset is now worth far more than the price Ecopetrol would have paid.

Numbers like these are estimates, not certainties, and oil prices can fall as well as rise. But even the cautious version of the calculation describes a large opportunity that a single veto closed off.

Why it is back now

The reason the file has reopened is the change of government. The incoming team, led on the economy by vice-president-elect José Manuel Restrepo, has publicly criticised the withdrawal from the deal.

That fits a wider promise. The president-elect, Abelardo de la Espriella, has pledged to reopen oil and gas exploration that the outgoing government froze, reversing a policy he blames for weakening the company, a stance set out when markets cheered his win.

The CrownRock episode has become the incoming side’s favourite example. It is concrete, it has a number attached, and it captures the clash between climate-driven policy and a state oil company’s commercial instincts.

What it means for investors

For shareholders the lesson is about control as much as oil. Ecopetrol is majority state-owned, so the government of the day can shape its biggest decisions, for better or worse.

The same earlier government also ordered the company to sell other Permian fracking assets, part of a push away from fossil fuels, as our earlier reporting documented. The incoming administration is signalling the opposite direction.

Whether reopening exploration can recover lost ground is uncertain, since new fields take years to deliver. What the CrownRock case shows is how quickly a political instinct can turn into a line on a balance sheet.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the Ecopetrol CrownRock deal?

It was a 2024 plan, known internally as Project Oslo, for Ecopetrol to buy up to a 30% stake in CrownRock’s assets in the Permian Basin in Texas for about US$3.6 billion. The acreage was operated alongside Occidental Petroleum, a long-standing Ecopetrol partner in the region.

Why was the deal blocked?

President Gustavo Petro opposed it at a meeting on July 31, 2024, citing three reasons: it involved fracking, it would raise the company’s debt, and it would send Colombian money abroad. The board, which had approved the deal seven votes to two, then reversed course, and two directors resigned in protest.

How much did the decision cost?

One analysis estimates the foregone upside at as much as US$8.4 billion, as Permian values rose after the deal was blocked. These figures are estimates rather than certainties, and oil prices can move in either direction.

Why is the case back in the news?

Colombia’s incoming government has reopened the file, with vice-president-elect José Manuel Restrepo criticising the withdrawal. It fits the president-elect’s pledge to reopen oil and gas exploration frozen under the outgoing administration.