Deaths of elderly vaccinated with two doses rise by 73% in Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Rio de Janeiro has seen deaths and hospitalizations of elderly administered the two coronavirus vaccine doses steadily increase. The numbers have been rising for about a month and a half and have alerted the authorities to the need to administer a third dose to this group.

Deaths in the over 60 age group increased from 64 to 111 when comparing the penultimate week of June and the second week of August (a 73% increase). Hospitalizations increased from 166 to 339 in the same period (104%), according to data from Rio de Janeiro’s Health Surveillance Subsecretariat.

Deaths and hospitalizations of people over 60 years of age for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) were considered, on the dates they occurred. The data are from the federal Sivep-Gripe system and do not include the past two weeks to prevent delays in the records.

The two curves’ trajectories are similar: They show an increase from late March to mid-May (during the peak of the disease this year), but far below the total curve. Then they drop until the end of June, when they steadily rise again.

As a result, the proportion of elderly people with full vaccination coverage among severe cases has also been climbing. It increased from 7% of deaths in mid-May to 36% in August. With respect to hospitalizations, it rose from 12% to 31% in the same period.

The Francis Crick Institute, in collaboration with the British National Institute for Health Research, released a study on June 3 that showed that the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine produced fewer neutralizing antibodies against COVID-19’s variants, particularly the Delta variant that is overwhelming Rio de Janeiro.

It found that only 25 percent of the people who received a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine had a quantifiable neutralizing antibody response against the Delta variant of Covid-19.  The situation is worse for older individuals who have weaker immune systems. The researchers found that older vaccine recipients generated even fewer antibodies.

Despite this, the State Health Secretariat points out that the “vaccines have effectively reduced deaths among the elderly, but people in this age group have more comorbidities and weaker health conditions due to the natural deterioration of the immune system caused by aging.”

The increase in fatal cases among fully immunized elderly people had already been noticed by the health secretariat. Now, the state’s officials are trying to understand if the main cause is, in fact, a reduction in immunity among the elderly, as they were the first targets of the vaccination campaign.

The ongoing study shows that, to date, the vaccine’s origin or manufacturer has not been relevant to the results. That is, deaths have increased the same among seniors administered the Coronavac, AstraZeneca, or Pfizer vaccines.

Based on the preliminary analyses, the state government reported that it “considers that a third dose would be recommended for the elderly.” However, it is waiting for the Ministry of Health’s decision: “For the measure to be implemented, the Ministry must supply the state with enough vaccines,” it said.

In other words, although the vaccines have failed to deliver on their original promises and can provide insufficient protection with one as well as two doses, now the third dose is supposed to change the situation.

Since this third dose means a further investment of billions, one may reasonably ask at this point to what extent the pharmaceutical industry has a hand in these decisions.

However, the Rio de Janeiro city hall has also taken a similar position. On Tuesday, August 24, Mayor Eduardo Paes reiterated that he “is very keen on providing the third dose for the elderly.” The municipality even announced that it will begin administering the vaccine in September, which also depends on deliveries from the federal government.

The rise in deaths among fully vaccinated elderly people in Rio de Janeiro is not reflected in an overall increase in this age group. The total number of deaths of people over 60 fell from 364 to 311 between the penultimate week of June and the second week of August (a 15% decrease).

The total number of elderly hospitalizations rose in the same period (from 852 to 1,090), although not in the same proportion. There was a 28% increase, therefore below the 104% recorded among those who have completed their vaccination schedule.