What Happened in Cury’s Fourth Quarter
Cury Construtora (CURY3) delivered its strongest quarter and strongest full year on record in 4Q25, beating analyst estimates on both revenue and earnings. The São Paulo– and Rio de Janeiro–focused homebuilder posted net income of R$270 million ($52M), a 63% year-on-year increase that topped the LSEG consensus of R$254 million.
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On an activity basis — which strips out certain non-operating items — net income reached R$297.2 million ($58M), up 57% year-on-year. For the full year, the activity-based profit crossed the R$1 billion mark at R$1.08 billion ($209M), a 55% jump over 2024.
The results reflect a company firing on all cylinders within Brazil’s revamped Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV) affordable housing program. Management described the year as one of historic operational and financial records, citing strong sales velocity, disciplined execution and efficient capital allocation.
Key Drivers Behind Cury’s Performance
Revenue and Margin Expansion
Net revenue rose 37% year-on-year to R$1.42 billion ($275M), in line with the consensus of R$1.41 billion. The company attributed the acceleration to a larger volume of active construction projects and strong commercial performance across its portfolio.
Gross profit climbed 42% to R$572.7 million ($111M), with the adjusted gross margin widening 1.3 percentage points to 40.6%. Costs rose 34% to R$847 million ($164M), but the slower growth relative to revenue allowed profitability to advance — a dynamic management credited to pricing discipline and controlled material costs.
MCMV Tailwind and Sales Dynamics
Gross sales totaled R$1.71 billion in general sales value (VGV) in Q4, up 12% year-on-year, while net sales reached R$1.56 billion (+9.3%). The company sold 5,445 units during the quarter at an average price of R$336,400 per unit, a 15% sequential increase reflecting greater weight of higher-ticket products eligible under MCMV’s expanded Faixa 4.
Launches in Q4 comprised five projects — four in São Paulo and one in Rio de Janeiro — totaling R$1.29 billion in VGV. For the full year, launches reached R$8.2 billion ($1.59B), a 26% increase over 2024. The velocity-of-sales ratio (VSO) stood at 39.3% in Q4, while the trailing 12-month VSO remained above 76%.
Cancellations rose 47% year-on-year to R$157.7 million, representing 9.2% of gross sales — a manageable level that declined sequentially from Q3. The landbank ended December at R$24.6 billion in VGV, up 23% year-on-year, providing a runway of roughly three years of launches at the current pace.
Cash Generation and Balance Sheet
Operating cash generation was the standout metric, more than doubling to R$321 million ($62M) in Q4 — a record — and extending Cury’s streak to 27 consecutive quarters of positive cash flow. Full-year cash generation hit R$683 million ($132M), up 46%.
Cury closed December with R$1.79 billion ($347M) in cash and equivalents against R$1.47 billion ($285M) in gross debt, resulting in a net cash position of R$316 million ($61M). The net financial result improved to a loss of R$8.9 million versus R$12.8 million a year earlier, reflecting the benefit of this comfortable liquidity position.
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Valuation & profitability
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$40.97
Revenue trend · 6y
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Cury Financial Detail
Quarterly Income Statement Summary
| Metric | 4Q25 | 4Q24 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | R$ 1.42B ($275M) | R$ 1.03B | +37.2% |
| Gross Profit | R$ 572.7M ($111M) | R$ 404.5M | +41.6% |
| Adj. Gross Margin | 40.6% | 39.3% | +1.3pp |
| EBITDA (Adj.) | R$ 359M ($70M) | R$ 239M | +50.6% |
| EBITDA Margin | 25.0% | 22.8% | +2.2pp |
| Net Income (IFRS) | R$ 270M ($52M) | R$ 166M | +62.9% |
| Net Income (Activity) | R$ 297.2M ($58M) | R$ 188.9M | +57.3% |
| Op. Cash Generation | R$ 321M ($62M) | R$ 151M | +113% |
Operational Highlights
| Metric | 4Q25 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Net Sales (VGV) | R$ 1.56B ($302M) | +9.3% |
| Gross Sales (VGV) | R$ 1.71B ($331M) | +12.0% |
| Launches (VGV) | R$ 1.29B ($250M) | +11% |
| Units Sold | 5,445 | +13.0% |
| Avg. Price / Unit | R$ 336.4K ($65K) | — |
| VSO (Quarterly) | 39.3% | — |
| Cancellations | R$ 157.7M ($31M) | +47% |
| Landbank (VGV) | R$ 24.6B ($4.8B) | +23% |
Balance Sheet and Cash Position
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | R$ 1.79B ($347M) |
| Gross Debt | R$ 1.47B ($285M) |
| Net Cash | R$ 316M ($61M) |
| Dividends Paid (FY2025) | R$ 1.35B ($262M) |
| Dividend Yield (TTM) | ~12% |
Management Signals
Key Facts
— Management characterized 2025 as a year of historic operating and financial records, citing the combination of strong sales velocity, construction discipline and scale-driven operating leverage. The company described itself as entering 2026 in an even stronger position.
— XP analysts reported after a meeting with executives that Cury expects 2025 to be its best year ever — a forecast now confirmed by the results — and that management sees favorable conditions continuing into 2026 thanks to MCMV program expansions and a robust project pipeline.
What to Watch Next
Analysts remain constructive. BTG Pactual maintains a buy rating with a R$44 target, valuing the stock at roughly 8x estimated 2026 earnings. Bradesco BBI is more bullish at R$47, projecting 48% upside, while BB-BI targets R$43. XP carries a R$37 target and names Cury its top pick in Brazilian homebuilding, projecting a 30% earnings-per-share CAGR through 2027.
The MCMV Faixa 4 expansion, which raised the eligible property ceiling to R$500,000 for families earning up to R$12,000 per month, has been a significant catalyst since its May 2025 launch. By Q2 2025, roughly 93% of Cury’s units sold were MCMV-eligible, up from about 70% a quarter earlier. Analysts at Safra note that the share of non-MCMV sales should fall from 30% to about 5%, creating an additional growth engine.
The company is scheduled to report 1Q26 operating data in mid-April 2026. Investors will be watching whether the strong launch pipeline — with a R$24.6 billion landbank — can sustain momentum amid a still-elevated Selic rate environment. The potential start of a cutting cycle, with the BCB expected to reduce the 15% rate at the March 18 meeting, could provide further support to housing demand.
Analyst Price Targets and Ratings
| Broker | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|
| BTG Pactual | Buy | R$ 44 |
| Bradesco BBI | Buy | R$ 47 |
| XP Investimentos | Buy (Top Pick) | R$ 37 |
| BB-BI | Buy | R$ 43 |
| JPMorgan | Neutral | — |
| Avg. (11 analysts) | Strong Buy | R$ 44.88 |
Key Risks
Construction cost inflation remains the primary margin risk. The INCC construction cost index has been running above historical averages, with labor costs — which represent 45–50% of the sector’s cost base — particularly sensitive to any potential changes in Brazil‘s work-schedule regulations (the 6×1 debate). While material costs have stabilized, a weaker BRL or steel price increases could reignite pressure.
MCMV funding sustainability is a structural concern. The program is financed primarily through FGTS (Brazil’s workers’ severance fund), and any policy shift increasing FGTS withdrawals could reduce the pool of resources available for housing lending. The government has signaled no plans to cut MCMV interest rates, but has maintained its target of 3 million contracts by end-2026.
Cancellations rose 47% in Q4 to R$157.7 million, a figure worth monitoring. While the 9.2% cancellation rate relative to gross sales is manageable and improved sequentially, sustained high interest rates could erode buyer affordability, particularly if Selic cuts are delayed or smaller than expected.
Execution risk is non-trivial at this scale. Cury‘s launches have grown at a 22% compound annual rate over three years, and the R$24.6 billion landbank implies continued expansion. Safra flags that maintaining engineering capacity and quality control across an expanding project base in a tight labor market is a key challenge.
Sector Context
Key Facts
— Brazil’s MCMV-focused homebuilders are among the strongest performers in Latin American equities. Cury leads the peer group with the highest margins and strongest cash conversion, trading at about 13x trailing earnings — a premium to peers like Tenda (5.4x) and Plano & Plano (5.8x), but justified by its superior profitability and growth profile. The MCMV program has been shielded from Selic rate increases because its funding comes from FGTS rather than market-rate savings, creating a structural demand floor for affordable housing builders.
— The broader Brazilian housing market shows strong momentum heading into 2026. National purchase intent has reached a record 50%, São Paulo residential sales reached 151,700 units in the trailing 12 months through Q3 2025, and the CBIC projects construction sector growth of 2% — above the 1.6% GDP forecast. The MCMV Faixa 4 expansion and raised Faixa 1–2 property ceilings, effective January 2026, provide further tailwinds.
— Peer Direcional (DIRR3) also reported Q4 results this week with a 28% profit increase but saw its stock fall 5% on concerns about margin compression and rising debt. Bradesco BBI has stated it prefers Cury over Direcional for near-term earnings momentum, while the Safra team has moved Tenda to the top of its list on valuation grounds.
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