Brazil’s Morning Call for Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Where We Left Off TUESDAY, MAR 10 — B3 CLOSE

The Ibovespa extended its recovery for a second straight session, climbing 1.40% to 183,447 on volume of R$23.2 billion (above the 50-day average of R$21.8 billion). The index briefly topped 185,000 intraday (high: 185,324) before paring gains as US equities reversed in the final hour on mixed Hormuz signals. Rumo and retail names led the advance; Petrobras pulled back as Brent fell from Monday’s settlement of $98.96 toward $88. MRV and rate-sensitive names continued under pressure.

The session’s volatility was driven by a cascade of conflicting signals. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the US Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz — oil dropped and stocks rallied. The post was then deleted, and the White House clarified no escorts had yet occurred. Oil bounced off lows while stocks came off highs. Meanwhile, CNN reported Iran had begun deploying mines in the Strait, and Trump threatened to hit Iran “20 times harder” if oil flow is disrupted. The IEA convened an emergency meeting of its 30+ member countries to discuss the largest-ever coordinated SPR release.

In New York, the S&P 500 fell 0.21% to 6,781.48 after initially rallying on the Wright post before reversing. The Dow shed 34 points (−0.07%) to 47,706.51. The Nasdaq was flat at 22,697.10 (+0.01%), supported by chip stocks following strong TSMC data. European markets rallied sharply: DAX +2.39%, FTSE +1.59%, CAC +1.79% — catching up to the de-escalation trade that US markets had priced Monday afternoon.

Gold staged a powerful reversal, surging ~2.4% to ~$5,228 after Monday’s margin-call-driven selloff to ~$5,092. Silver jumped 6.25% to $89.81. The 10-year Treasury yield continued falling, touching ~3.96% intraday — a flight-to-quality move as recession fears compete with oil inflation. The DXY weakened to 98.63 (−0.55%), and EUR/USD extended to 1.1645. The VIX fell to 24.93 (−2.24%), its lowest since the war began but still elevated.

Market Snapshot DATA AS OF TUE, MAR 10 CLOSE

What to Watch WEDNESDAY CATALYSTS

February CPI at 08:30 ET is the session’s anchor event. Consensus expects +0.3% MoM headline and +0.3% core. This is pre-oil-shock data — the collection period ended before $100 Brent — so even a benign print will be overshadowed by the knowledge that energy costs are already 20–50% higher than what February captured. A hot print (core above +0.4%) would formally close the door on a March FOMC cut and add pressure to the Copom’s decision. A soft print gives both central banks room to maneuver and likely sends the Ibovespa toward the 185,000 level again.

The IEA emergency meeting is the key oil catalyst. If the agency recommends the largest-ever coordinated SPR release (potentially 100+ million barrels), Brent could fall toward $80 and equities would rally hard. If the meeting produces vague language without concrete commitments — like Monday’s G7 statement — oil rebounds toward $95. The WSJ reportedly ran a story late Tuesday about the IEA meeting, which may influence overnight oil prices.

Domestically, the IGP-M first preview for March showed −0.19% (vs −0.49% in the February equivalent) — a deceleration in the wholesale deflation trend. Tomorrow brings the main event for Copom: the IBGE’s IPCA (February) at 09:00 BRT. Oracle reports earnings after the close.

Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS

The Ibovespa closed Tuesday at 183,447 (+1.40%). Daily RSI reads 50.60 (MA: 59.12) — the first close above 50 since the war began, signaling a shift from bearish to neutral momentum. MACD histogram turned positive at 2,707 (MACD: −1,645, signal: 1,062). The 50-day SMA at ~184,640 is now within arm’s reach — Tuesday’s intraday high of 185,324 briefly pierced it.

Resistance: 184,640 (50-day SMA) → 185,324 (Tuesday’s high) → 186,241 (Feb 9 close) → 187,000 (round number target).

Support: 183,000 (round number/consolidation) → 180,915 (Monday’s close) → 179,531 (intermediate SMA) → 174,965 (200-day SMA).

Two consecutive up days with expanding volume (R$23.2B vs the 50-day R$21.8B average) and RSI crossing 50 create a constructive setup. The key test is the 50-day SMA at ~184,640 — a sustained close above it would confirm the war correction is over. A soft CPI print today could provide the catalyst. If CPI is hot, the Ibovespa likely retests 182,000–183,000 support before the Copom. Bias: constructive above 183,000 with the 50-day SMA as the immediate target.

Copom Watch NEXT MEETING: MAR 17-18 · T−7 DAYS

The Selic sits at 15.00% with 7 days to Copom. The landscape has shifted materially since Monday: Brent has fallen from ~$119 to ~$88, the Focus IPCA held at 3.91%, and the real has strengthened to R$5.16. The DI curve on Tuesday showed only modest steepening of 1 bp, suggesting the market is re-anchoring toward a cut scenario rather than a hold.

Two data points will define the Copom outcome: today’s US CPI (which sets the global rate backdrop and DXY direction) and tomorrow’s Brazilian IPCA (February). If both come in benign, the 50 bps cut is the base case. If either surprises hawkishly, the BCB may opt for a more cautious 25 bps.

The EIA STEO’s assumption that Brent falls below $80 by Q3 is dovish for the Copom if internalized by the market. It suggests the oil shock is transitory — which is exactly the framing the BCB needs to justify beginning the easing cycle on schedule. The Petrobras diesel gap (R$2.74/liter) remains a latent risk but has not yet triggered a price adjustment.

Economic Calendar WEDNESDAY, MAR 11

Latin America Markets TUESDAY CLOSE

All five LatAm indices closed green on Tuesday — the first synchronized rally since the war began. MERVAL led at +2.56%, followed by COLCAP +2.11%, IPSA +1.69%, Ibovespa +1.40%, and IPC +0.76%. The RSI picture is improving: Ibovespa crossed 50 (neutral from bearish), COLCAP at 44.25 and IPSA at 41.13 exited oversold territory, and IPC at 40.47 is climbing. Only MERVAL (36.58) remains technically oversold despite the rally — suggesting more room for bounce if de-escalation holds.

The de-escalation trade is benefiting the entire region, but with different dynamics. Brazil (Ibovespa) gains from Brent stabilizing around $85–90 (Petrobras sweet spot) and rate-cut expectations rebuilding. Colombia (COLCAP) benefits from its oil export exposure. Chile (IPSA) and Mexico (IPC) are recovering from deeply oversold levels as global growth fears ease. Today’s CPI is the next test: a soft print could extend the synchronized rally, while a hot print would likely hit Mexico’s IPC hardest given its US demand sensitivity.

Commodities & FX KEY MOVES

Brent continued its retreat from $119.50, settling around $88 on Tuesday — a ~11% drop from Monday’s $98.96 settlement and ~26% from the intraday peak. The EIA STEO forecast Brent above $95 for the next two months before falling below $80 in Q3 and ~$70 by year-end, assuming gradual Hormuz resumption. The IEA emergency meeting could be the catalyst for a further move lower if a large SPR release is announced. Conversely, Iran’s mine deployment and the Wright post debacle show how quickly the narrative can reverse.

Iron Ore pulled back ~1.75% to ~$112 as the energy-cost rally faded with oil’s decline. Freight premiums remain elevated due to Hormuz disruption, but the demand outlook is softening as recession fears grow.

Gold surged ~2.44% to ~$5,228, staging a sharp reversal from Monday’s $5,092 close. Silver jumped 6.25% to $89.81. The precious metals rally reflects a DXY retreat (98.63, −0.55%), falling Treasury yields (~4.05%), and a reassertion of the safe-haven trade now that the dollar’s momentum has stalled. Gold is back within range of its late-February $5,589 all-time high.

USD/BRL continued strengthening to ~R$5.16, extending the real’s position as the best-performing EM currency of the crisis. The combination of falling oil (reducing inflation pass-through risk), a hawkish Selic differential (15% vs 3.50% Fed), and Brazil’s net oil-exporter status creates a structural tailwind. The Petrobras pricing gap remains the latent risk.

DXY fell to 98.63 (−0.55%), its weakest close since the war began. EUR/USD extended to 1.1645. The dollar’s safe-haven premium is unwinding as Trump’s de-escalation signals and falling oil reduce the urgency of the flight-to-safety trade. A soft CPI today would accelerate the DXY decline, supporting EM currencies and gold.

Risk Map BULL vs BEAR

Positioning BOTTOM LINE

Related coverage: Ibovespa session report | USDBRL exchange rate today

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