Colombia’s Peso And Stocks Enter Year-End With A Calm, Carry-Led Bid
Key Points
- The official FX reference (TRM) strengthened to COP$3,706.97 per dollar, from COP$3,716.05 a day earlier.
- USD/COP still looks dollar-negative on the daily chart, while the 4-hour view hints at a near-term base in the low 3,700s.
- The COLCAP rose 1.28% to 2,108.15 on COP$88.25bn in turnover, with Ecopetrol active and higher.
Colombia’s markets opened Tuesday in thin holiday trade, but the underlying story has been clear: a softer broad dollar is meeting one of the region’s more supportive carry setups.
On TradingView’s ICE feed, USD/COP was near 3,747 early Tuesday, after Monday’s session closed around 3,731 in another widely followed market snapshot. The dollar index hovered near 98 as investors waited for Federal Reserve minutes.
A major bank note argued the U.S. easing cycle could proceed at roughly “once per quarter” into late 2026—enough to keep the dollar on a leash, but not enough to remove volatility risk.
Locally, Colombia’s central bank ended the year with a 9.25% policy rate, preserving the yield cushion that can attract inflows when risk sentiment is stable.
Traders have also cited seasonal FX supply—remittances and reduced corporate dollar demand—keeping the peso supported into the turn.
Technicals line up with the narrative. On the daily view, USD/COP momentum remains peso-friendly, with RSI near 44 and MACD below zero.
On the 4-hour chart, RSI is around 51 and the MACD histogram has turned positive, suggesting stabilization. First support is seen around 3,720–3,700, with initial resistance clustered near 3,760–3,785.
Equities echoed the steadier tone. The MSCI COLCAP finished Monday at 2,108.15 (+1.28%). Ecopetrol rose 2.50% to COP$1,845 on about 5.40m shares, with COP$9.89bn in traded value, as investors digested fresh headlines tied to longer-dated gas contracting and commercialization.
Five top winners: Bolsa de Valores de Colombia +2.78% (COP$14,800), Davivienda +2.72% (COP$29,480), Ecopetrol +1.67% (COP$1,830), Cementos Argos +1.50% (COP$10,840), Bancolombia PF +1.06% (COP$60,800).
Five top losers: Mineros -2.71% (COP$15,100), Enel Americas -1.69% (COP$350), Almacenes Éxito -1.59% (COP$4,340), Corficolombiana -1.26% (COP$17,280), Banco de Bogotá -1.25% (COP$39,500).
Offshore, the Colombia-focused COLO ETF traded around $38.49, reinforcing the message from Bogotá: investors are still paying for predictability—and discounting policy experimentation.
Live Market IntelligenceColombia — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Colombia — Live Market Board
+0.36%
166,334.86
-0.27%
64,301.04
+0.07%
11,186.57
+0.34%
2,891,651
-1.89%
2,461.23
+0.36%
58,401.58
-1.35%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLCAP | 2,461.23 | +0.36% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| ECOPETROL | 16.92 | -0.53% | +98.01% | 17.01 | 17.05 | 16.79 | 737,591 |
| BANCOLOMBIA | 95.87 | -2.18% | +96.15% | 98.01 | 100.36 | 95.73 | 188,740 |
| GRUPO AVAL | 5.40 | +2.66% | +76.89% | 5.26 | 5.49 | 5.32 | 146,447 |
| TECNOGLASS | 42.30 | -1.10% | -48.04% | 42.77 | 42.73 | 42.05 | 60,908 |
| CREDICORP | 375.17 | -0.49% | +49.60% | 377.00 | 384.43 | 372.27 | 88,375 |
| BUENAVENTURA | 34.45 | -1.02% | +88.07% | 34.80 | 35.62 | 34.33 | 275,831 |
| SOUTHERN COPPER | 193.97 | -0.26% | +104.01% | 194.48 | 199.36 | 192.59 | 367,102 |
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