Colombian Market Jumps 1.6% as Trump Iran Plan Triggers Oil Selloff
The Big Three
Ecopetrol’s board kept CEO Ricardo Roa in place after its March 24 session, deferring a final decision to March 30 — even as the USO union threatened a national strike of 25,000 workers and President Petro publicly clashed with the syndicate over political alliances.
COLCAP surged +1.61% to 2,273.65, posting its third consecutive gain as the index extends its recovery from the March lows, now up +2.61% on the week per TradingView.
Brent crude tumbled to ~$102 after President Trump sent Tehran a 15-point ceasefire plan; Iran rejected the offer but markets priced in de-escalation hopes, pulling oil below the seven-session $100+ streak.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| COLCAP Close | 2,273.65 | +1.61% |
| COLCAP Weekly | — | +2.61% |
| COLCAP YTD | — | +9.90% |
| COLCAP ATH (Jan 27) | 2,562.00 | −11.26% |
| USD/COP TRM (Mar 25) | 3,700.67 | −0.11% |
| USD/COP TRM (Mar 26) | 3,688.46 | −0.33% |
| USD/COP SPOT Close | ~3,688 | −0.34% |
| Peso YTD vs USD | — | +1.39% |
| BanRep Rate | 10.25% | +100 bps (Jan 30) |
| Brent Crude | $102.22 | −2.2% |
| WTI Crude | $90.32 | −2.2% |
| Gold | $4,532 | +0.4% |
| DXY | 99.34 | +0.09% |
| S&P 500 | 6,591.90 | +0.54% |
| VIX | 25.33 | −6.01% |
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02 Equities
The Colombia stock market COLCAP today extended its recovery with a broad-based advance, closing at 2,273.65 after touching an intraday high of 2,295.54. Ecopetrol rose +2.23% to COP 2,745, reclaiming levels not seen since January 2023 as Brent remained above $100 despite the day’s pullback. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombia’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
Grupo Cibest (Bancolombia) closed at COP 84,860 as markets digested the holding’s announced dividend of COP 4.3 trillion for 2025, a +15% increase year-over-year. CEO Juan Carlos Mora confirmed Nequi will operate independently while results consolidate within the group.
The Ecopetrol corporate governance saga remained front and center. The board concluded its March 24 session without removing President Ricardo Roa despite mounting pressure from the USO, minority shareholders, and the former Hocol president’s legal representative. The board will reconvene on March 30. The USO warned it could mobilize 25,000 workers nationally if demands are not met, while President Petro publicly accused the union of aligning with uribismo — a charge the USO emphatically denied.
ISA led the Monday session with a +8.53% surge to COP 29,000 on March 24. Grupo Bolívar gained +4.85% to COP 90,000, while Corficolombiana fell −9.94% to COP 15,400, the session’s worst performer. Banco de Bogotá shed −8.85% to COP 34,200.
03 Currency
The Colombian peso strengthened for a second consecutive session. The SPOT rate closed near COP 3,688 per dollar, while the TRM for March 26 was certified at COP 3,688.46 — down COP 12.21 (−0.33%) from the prior day’s COP 3,700.67.
The peso has now appreciated +1.39% year-to-date against the dollar, supported by portfolio inflows chasing the emerging-market rally and elevated carry from BanRep’s 10.25% policy rate. The monthly trend remains firmly bearish for USD/COP, with the TRM dropping from COP 3,766.30 at the start of March.
BanRep’s hawkish 100 bps hike in January continues to anchor the peso. The central bank’s minutes noted persistent inflation concerns as the primary motivation, and markets see no near-term reversal.
04 Technical Analysis — MSCI COLCAP Daily
The index opened at 2,239.61, dipped briefly to 2,237.14, then rallied decisively to touch 2,295.54 before settling at 2,273.65. The session printed a strong bullish candle with a long lower shadow, suggesting buyers defended the 2,240 zone aggressively.
The MACD histogram at −32.93 remains negative but is narrowing rapidly, with the MACD line (9.57) crossing above the signal line (−23.36) — a bullish crossover that suggests momentum is shifting. RSI stands at 53.21/43.05, recovering into neutral territory from the oversold readings of early March.
The 200-day SMA sits at approximately 1,993, leaving the index comfortably above this long-term support. The immediate test is whether COLCAP can clear the 2,302 resistance zone, which capped the late-February bounce.
05 Key Levels
| Level | COLCAP |
| Resistance 3 | 2,329.58 |
| Resistance 2 | 2,302.50 |
| Resistance 1 | 2,295.54 |
| Current Close | 2,273.65 |
| Support 1 | 2,242.27 |
| Support 2 | 2,216.63 |
| Support 3 | 2,204.89 |
06 Global Context
Wall Street rallied after Trump sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire plan, with the S&P 500 gaining +0.54% to 6,591.90. Brent fell −2.2% to $102.22 as de-escalation hopes countered Iran’s formal rejection. The VIX dropped −6.01% to 25.33, and gold held near $4,532. Goldman Sachs noted crude is trading primarily on geopolitical risk premium, with its base case assuming Hormuz flows normalize in April.
07 Looking Ahead
The Ecopetrol board reconvenes on March 30, making the Roa decision the single most consequential corporate catalyst for Colombian equities this week. Any resolution — removal or retention — will move Ecopetrol and the broader index sharply. The USO’s strike threat adds a tail risk that markets have not fully priced.
On the macro front, the Iran peace plan’s trajectory will dictate Brent’s next move. A sustained pullback below $100 would relieve fiscal pressure on Colombia but weigh on Ecopetrol’s revenue outlook. Domestically, the 2026 election cycle continues to shape risk appetite, with Bloomberg Línea noting the centroright bloc is gaining strength while Pacto Histórico maintains electoral uncertainty.
Key Facts
— COLCAP’s +1.61% session capped a three-day rally that has recovered roughly half of March’s drawdown. The bullish MACD crossover and RSI returning above 50 favor further upside toward the 2,302 resistance cluster, provided Brent stabilizes above $100. The peso’s steady appreciation adds a tailwind for foreign portfolio flows.
—Bias: Cautiously bullish. The technical setup and global risk-on mood support near-term gains, but the Ecopetrol governance crisis and the potential USO strike create binary event risk that could reverse the rally if March 30 delivers a negative surprise.
This report is published by The Rio Times for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market data sourced from TradingView, BVC, Investing.com, dolar-colombia.com, BanRep, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, La República, La Silla Vacía, and Infobae. All figures are subject to revision. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Iran War and Hormuz Crisis 2026: Oil, Latin America and the Global Fallout
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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