Colombia’s Peso and Ecopetrol Rally After First-Round Vote

COLOMBIA · MARKETS

Colombian financial markets opened the week with a strong rally after the first round of the presidential election, as the peso jumped against the dollar and shares in the state oil company Ecopetrol advanced. Analysts read the result as a relief for investors, while cautioning that the decisive runoff still lies ahead on June 21.

How markets moved

The peso led the move. According to the Colombian Stock Exchange, the dollar opened Monday’s session at around 3,576 pesos, about 100 pesos below the official reference rate (TRM) of 3,678 that had held over the weekend, a drop of roughly 2.8%. Early trade was thin, with the currency ranging between about 3,551 and 3,603 pesos.

Equities also rallied, led by Ecopetrol, the country’s largest company and the stock most sensitive to the political outlook. Local sovereign bonds, known as TES, were also in focus. The figures reflect early-session movements and can change through the day.

What the vote showed

In Sunday’s first round, with 98.27% of voting tables reported, Abelardo de la Espriella placed first with 43.74% of the vote, while Iván Cepeda took 40.90%. Because no candidate passed the threshold for an outright win, the two will face each other in a runoff on June 21.

The result reshaped the political landscape and left investors weighing what each candidate would mean for economic policy, with attention now turning to the second round.

Why the market reacted this way

Analysts attributed the rally to a sense of relief among investors. Omar Suárez of Casa de Bolsa said the result could surprise markets positively, as De la Espriella is perceived as the more market-friendly candidate relative to Cepeda, and anticipated gains in equities, bonds, country risk and the exchange rate.

Felipe Campos of Alianza Valores said the outcome would likely be received positively because it raised the perception of certainty about a possible pro-market shift in economic policy. The financial firm Ebury had noted that a De la Espriella win would be viewed favourably by many investors given his proposals on cutting public spending, lowering taxes and opening up to investment, while the candidate has said he would seek to revive oil exploration and strengthen Ecopetrol.

The runoff still ahead

Analysts cautioned against reading too much into the first-day move. JPMorgan had earlier described the election as one of the most consequential for local markets in decades, arguing that asset performance would depend less on the immediate first-round result and more on the next government’s ability to convince markets it can correct fiscal imbalances and preserve institutional credibility.

With the runoff set for June 21, markets are expected to remain sensitive to campaign developments. This article reports market movements and analyst commentary and is general information, not investment advice; intraday figures can change through the session.