Chilean Peso Surges to Month’s High as Dollar Slides, Traders Eye Copper and ETF Flows

TradingView and market data on April 25, 2025, show the Chilean peso at its strongest in over a month, with the USD/CLP pair opening at 932.12. This marks a sharp move from the 961.7 level seen just days earlier.

The peso’s rally erased weeks of dollar gains and put the currency pair well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, both key technical indicators for traders. The peso’s advance started after it broke through a crucial support at 954.67 on April 23.

This technical move triggered further selling of the dollar and forced market participants to unwind long positions. Traders who bet on a stronger dollar earlier in the week faced losses as the peso gained nearly 6% from its April lows.

The technical downtrend now appears entrenched, with the pair trading under all major moving averages and volatility remaining moderate. Market participants attribute the peso’s strength to a mix of local and external factors.

The Central Bank of Chile kept its interest rate steady at 5.00% in March, pausing its easing cycle to assess inflation and global risks. This decision signaled stability to markets and helped anchor the peso.

The board cited persistent inflation above its 2–4% target and global uncertainty as reasons for holding rates. Analysts expect the central bank to remain cautious, with some seeing room for mild cuts later in 2025 if inflation trends lower.

Chilean Peso Outlook

Copper prices, a cornerstone of Chile’s export economy, have also played a major role. On April 23, copper traded at $9,416.50 per tonne, close to recent highs. Strong copper demand, especially from China, and supply constraints have supported prices.

Citi analysts recently raised their three-month copper forecast, citing slower-than-expected declines due to eased U.S. tariffs and Chinese buying on dips. This has kept foreign exchange flowing into Chile and bolstered the peso.

Broader financial flows have added to the peso’s momentum. Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $442 million on April 24, with the largest inflow to the iShares Bitcoin Trust.

While not directly tied to the peso, these flows reflect a renewed risk appetite in global markets. At the same time, long-term mutual funds and ETFs saw outflows earlier in April, which may have contributed to shifting currency positions as investors sought higher returns elsewhere.

Forecasts for the USD/CLP rate remain divided. Trading Economics expects a rebound to 951.14 by the end of the third quarter, while some banks see the pair averaging above 1,000 for the year.

However, the technical picture now favors the peso, and traders remain alert to further moves in copper and central bank policy. The current market story is one of a peso rally driven by technical breaks and stable policy.

Strong commodity exports have also played a key role in supporting the currency. Traders now watch for signs of reversal or further gains, with copper and global flows likely to decide the next chapter.

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