Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Monday, July 13, 2026

01 The Ibovespa setup in one read

Brazil comes in on the front foot after a strong Friday, but the mood at the open is caution rather than conviction — the market is positioning, not chasing.

The anchor is the Selic at 14.25%, and the question that hangs over every desk is the August 3–4 Copom decision, now finely balanced between a last 25bp cut and a hold.

Today’s only scheduled domestic marker before the bell is the 11:25 BRT Focus survey, the central bank’s weekly poll of economists, which will show whether the year-end rate view is still drifting hawkish.

Everything else — the real, the miners, the banks — trades in the shadow of tomorrow’s US CPI at 12:30 BRT, the print that sets the dollar’s global tone and the reais’s carry math.

02 Where Brazil is set to open

The Ibovespa’s Friday surge — up 2.97% to 177,866 in step with Wall Street — leaves the index roughly 10.5% below its 52-week high of 198,657 and looking stretched into a data-heavy week.

USD/BRL near 5.1075 sits toward the firm end of its 4.8909–5.5901 range, meaning the real is richly priced on carry and vulnerable to any hawkish US CPI surprise tomorrow.

03 On the B3 radar today — the Focus survey and pre-CPI positioning

The Focus report is the day’s one genuinely domestic catalyst — it summarises market expectations collected until the previous Friday and is released every Monday, covering inflation, the exchange rate and the Selic path.

The CFTC positioning data matters because it reveals how crowded the long-real carry trade already is; a stretched net-long reading amplifies the downside if tomorrow’s US CPI runs hot.

04 Copom and the macro backdrop

The starting point is a policy rate of 14.25% — at its 16–17 June meeting the Copom cut the Selic by a further 25 basis points to 14.25%, a unanimous decision marking the third consecutive quarter-point cut since easing began in March.

The catch is that policy is still deliberately tight, and inflation has not fully cooperated — inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 remain above target, at 4.9% and 4.0% respectively.

That has pulled the year-end wager hawkish: Brazil’s financial market raised its Selic forecast to 14.00% by the end of 2026, up from 13.75%, on persistent inflationary pressure.

The next decision lands soon — the BCB will reconvene on 3–4 August — and the pre-Copom questionnaire showed most respondents expected the bank to then hold the Selic through the following two meetings, in August and September, framing today’s Focus read as the next clue.

05 Corporate stories to watch today

There is no first-tier B3 earnings release scheduled for today, so single-name flow will follow the macro tape and the commodity complex rather than fresh corporate news.

The next hard corporate catalyst is Vale’s quarterly output — the company will release its 2Q26 production and sales report on 21 July 2026 after market close, followed by financials on 30 July, keeping the miner a story for later this month.

Vale carries context from a strong first quarter, when iron ore production reached 69.7 Mt, up 3% year over year, and full-year 2026 iron ore guidance was reiterated at 335–345 Mt.

With the domestic slate quiet, VALE3, PETR4 and the big banks — the reliable turnover leaders — will set the index’s direction on external cues rather than company-specific triggers.

06 The levels to watch at the open

On the index, 177,866 is the reference after Friday’s jump; the round 180,000 handle is the near-term overhead, while the 198,657 52-week high remains the longer-term ceiling roughly 10.5% away.

On the currency, USD/BRL near 5.1075 leaves the psychologically important 5.00 floor in sight, with the 4.8909 52-week low as the ceiling of real strength — a hot US CPI tomorrow is the most likely trigger to unwind it.

The tell today will be the Focus Selic median at 11:25 BRT: a further drift toward or above 14.00% hardens the August-hold case and supports the carry trade, while a softer read revives cut hopes.

Given the extended tape and the looming US print, a quiet, range-bound session with defensive positioning is the base case rather than a fresh leg higher.

07 What to watch

• Focus Selic median: Any move above the 14.00% year-end view hardens the August-hold case and firms the real’s carry
• US CPI tomorrow: Core est +0.3%; a hot print lifts the dollar and threatens the reais’s rich carry positioning
• CFTC BRL positioning: A crowded net-long real magnifies downside risk if CPI surprises hawkish
• Ibovespa technicals: Overbought after +2.97%; watch 180,000 overhead and whether the gap-up holds

Background: Key Market Events for the Week of July 13–17, 2026.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Copom expected to cut in August?

It is genuinely two-sided. The Selic is 14.25% after three straight 25bp cuts, and the market is split between a final trim to 14.00% and a hold, with the pre-Copom questionnaire pointing to a pause in August and September.

What is the Focus report and why does it move markets?

It is the central bank’s weekly survey of economists’ expectations for inflation, the Selic and the exchange rate, released every Monday. Traders read the year-end Selic median for the direction of the rate-cut wager.

Why does US CPI matter for Brazilian assets?

The print sets the global dollar tone. A hot US inflation reading strengthens the dollar and erodes the appeal of the reais’s high-yield carry trade, pressuring both the currency and B3.

Are there major Brazilian earnings today?

No first-tier B3 results are scheduled for today. The next big corporate catalyst is Vale’s 2Q26 production report on 21 July, so today’s flow follows the macro tape.

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