Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Friday, June 26, 2026
Key Points
- Brazil’s Ibovespa rose 0.89% to 172,028 on Thursday, touching its highest level in weeks as softer inflation lifted the mood.
- The dollar slipped back below 5.20 reais, easing to 5.18 after a tense week that had pushed it to its strongest since March.
- Brazil’s mid-month inflation came in cooler than expected at 0.41%, down from 0.62% in May, as food-price pressure faded.
- The closely watched US inflation gauge rose to a three-year high of 4.1%, but the in-line reading calmed nerves and trimmed bets on a near-term US rate hike.
- The softer numbers revived hopes that Brazil’s central bank could manage one more rate cut, sending short-term interest-rate futures lower.
- Banks led the gains, while Braskem tumbled more than 10% after seeking protection from creditors.
- Petrobras said it will resume importing diesel in July, its first foreign purchases since March.
Today’s Focus
After a jittery week dominated by a surging dollar, Thursday brought relief on both fronts. Brazil’s stock market climbed past 172,000, while the real strengthened as the dollar eased back below 5.20.
The trigger was inflation, and for once the news was friendly. Brazil’s mid-month price preview came in cooler than economists expected, with food costs easing, just as a closely watched US inflation reading landed in line with forecasts rather than above them.
Together, the two readings took some heat out of the week’s biggest worry, that interest rates everywhere might have to stay high or climb. Brazilian rate-cut hopes flickered back to life.
What to watch. With the week’s major data now out, attention turns to a few US Federal Reserve speakers and a quiet end-of-month session. The lasting question is whether this week’s softer inflation marks a turning point or just a pause.
01 Brazil catches a break
The Ibovespa rose 0.89% on Thursday to close at 172,028, having climbed as high as 173,277 during the session, its strongest level in weeks. By The Rio Times’ calculation, the index has now gained about 2.2% from Friday’s close of 168,334 to Thursday’s 172,028, a steady week-long recovery off its floor.
Banks did much of the lifting as falling interest-rate futures brightened the outlook for lending. The mood soured only for Braskem, whose shares tumbled more than 10% after the petrochemical company sought temporary protection from its financial creditors.
A softer inflation preview at home and an in-line reading abroad combined to ease the week’s central fear of relentlessly rising rates. The recovery is now broad and steady, though much still depends on whether oil stays calm and the dollar’s recent strength fades.
02 Inflation cools, at home and abroad
Brazil’s mid-month inflation rose just 0.41% in June, below the 0.44% economists expected and down from 0.62% in May, according to IBGE. Food and beverages plus housing drove about two-thirds of the increase, but the broader slowdown was enough to revive hopes the central bank could deliver one more cut to the 14.25% Selic rate.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge climbed to 4.1%, its highest in three years, but matched forecasts exactly. Because the spike was driven by an oil shock that is now fading, markets treated it as a likely peak and trimmed their bets on an imminent US rate hike.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | -0.31% | -7.13% | 5.18 | 5.18 | 5.16 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 38.45 | +0.42% | +23.20% | 38.29 | 38.67 | 37.92 | 25,136,000 |
| VALE3 | 78.66 | +1.20% | +55.82% | 77.73 | 79.22 | 77.42 | 13,888,700 |
| ITUB4 | 41.70 | +1.78% | +17.42% | 40.97 | 42.11 | 41.22 | 20,758,100 |
| BBDC4 | 17.62 | -0.17% | +7.44% | 17.65 | 18.07 | 17.54 | 51,811,800 |
| BBAS3 | 20.05 | +1.62% | -5.69% | 19.73 | 20.25 | 19.83 | 15,641,800 |
| B3SA3 | 14.61 | -2.79% | +7.35% | 15.03 | 15.07 | 14.61 | 47,459,500 |
| ABEV3 | 16.39 | +0.06% | +24.64% | 16.38 | 16.49 | 16.23 | 18,189,400 |
| WEGE3 | 46.50 | -0.24% | — | 46.61 | 47.37 | 46.23 | 7,157,200 |
| PRIO3 | 53.94 | -0.30% | +31.46% | 54.10 | 54.57 | 53.36 | 19,383,500 |
| SUZB3 | 42.00 | -0.47% | -18.43% | 42.20 | 42.67 | 41.89 | 4,723,400 |
| RENT3 | 42.35 | +1.41% | -1.85% | 41.76 | 42.86 | 41.82 | 7,497,400 |
| AZZA3 | 19.80 | +2.54% | -48.60% | 19.31 | 20.10 | 19.33 | 1,637,200 |
| CSNA3 | 4.82 | -4.74% | -33.52% | 5.06 | 5.13 | 4.82 | 22,634,600 |
| GGBR4 | 21.44 | +0.28% | +35.18% | 21.38 | 21.88 | 21.43 | 8,011,800 |
| ENEV3 | 26.12 | +0.69% | +89.28% | 25.94 | 26.49 | 25.99 | 8,045,300 |
| LREN3 | 14.52 | +0.14% | -23.54% | 14.50 | 14.82 | 14.44 | 9,049,800 |
03 The real finds its feet
The Brazilian real recovered some poise, with the dollar slipping 0.39% to 5.18 reais and dropping back below the 5.20 mark it had threatened all week. The move tracked a softer dollar worldwide, as the in-line US inflation reading eased fears of higher-for-longer American rates.
Even after this week’s wobble, the real is holding up well over the year, by The Rio Times’ calculation strengthening about 5.6% against the dollar so far in 2026. Brazil’s high Selic rate remains the anchor, and the softer inflation backdrop now offers the currency a little extra support.
04 Economic Calendar
Key Events — Friday, June 26
05 The rest of Latin America
The regional backdrop steadied after a bruising stretch. Brazil’s gains stood out, helped by its own friendly inflation news, while Argentina and Colombia tried to stabilize following sharp falls earlier in the week that unwound their torrid June rallies.
A calmer dollar helps the whole region, since it eases pressure on local currencies and gives central banks more room to maneuver. With oil prices low and the Middle East quieter, the conditions for a steadier finish to the month are falling into place.
06 Bottom Line
The Takeaway
Brazil ends the week on a brighter note. Softer inflation at home and a non-threatening US reading lifted stocks, steadied the real, and revived the hope that the rate-cut cycle is not quite finished.
The risks have not vanished. US inflation is still well above target, the Fed remains in a tightening frame of mind, and the dollar’s strength could return.
But for now the immediate pressure has eased.
The bottom line: a welcome turn, if a fragile one. Cooler prices bought Brazil some breathing room, and a quiet Friday gives the recovery a chance to settle in.