Brazil should have record grain harvest, Conab projects
The Brazilian production of grains may reach 312.365 million tons in the 2022/23 harvest.
If confirmed, the volume will exceed 41.5 million tons, the record obtained in the recently ended season, when 270.9 million tons were harvested.
That is what the “1st Survey of the Grain Crop 2022/23,” released on Thursday, October 6, by the National Supply Company (Conab), points out.
According to the document, the area destined for planting presents a growth of 2.9% compared to the 2021/22 cycle, estimated at 76.6 million hectares.
“It is worth noting that in Brazil, considering its vast territorial extension, there is the cultivation of three crops in different periods.
“Therefore, for all crops, approximately 52.6 million hectares are used,” reinforces Conab’s president, Guilherme Ribeiro.
Among the products, the highlights are soy and corn, which should record production of 279.3 million tons.
In the case of soybeans, Brazilian farmers should dedicate an area of 42.89 million hectares, an increase of 3.4% compared to last year’s harvest.
Sowing of the grain occurs within the window in the top producing states and has reached 4.6% of the area, with the highest rate recorded in Paraná (9%), followed by Mato Grosso (8.9%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (6%).
With the advance of the area, Conab’s estimate for oilseed production is 152.4 million tons.
REDUCTION IN PLANTED AREA
For the first-crop corn, a reduction of 1.5% in the area to be planted is indicated due to the increase in costs and migration to more profitable crops.
Planting is advanced in the South of the country, where frequent and well-distributed rainfall favors its initial development, despite the low temperatures that delayed emergence in some regions.
“In the three southern states, where sowing is already advanced, producers are alert to the possible incidence of leafhopper attacks, especially with the increase in temperatures in the coming months,” comments the company’s superintendent of agricultural information, Candice Romero Santos.
Even with the smaller area, it is expected that the cereal harvest in the first harvest presents an increase of 14.6%, estimated at 28.69 million tons.
The good result is due to the expected productivity recovery in the current cycle.
Adding up the three harvests of grain in the entire 2022/23 season, Conab estimates production of 126.9 million tons.
Essential products for the domestic market, rice and beans, also tend to show a drop in planted area.
Even so, the estimated production of rice is 10.8 million tons, while that of the legume should reach 2.96 million tons, which guarantees the supply in the country.
“Beans are a short-cycle crop, which presents an advantage for the producer who can adjust his planting within a smaller window without giving up the production of other grains still in the same crop year.
“In this scenario, Brazil has three distinct planting seasons, thus favoring a constant supply of the product throughout the year,” highlights Conab’s Agricultural Information and Policy Director, Sergio De Zen.
COTTON AND WINTER CROPS
For cotton, it is expected that 1.63 million hectares will be destined for the cultivation of fiber, a growth of 1.9% of the sown area in the 2022/23 harvest compared with the previous harvest, resulting in a lint production of 2.92 million tons.
For winter crops, the crops are either in the harvest phase or at an advanced stage of development.
The main sown product, wheat, is already harvested in 22.4% of the planted area in the country.
With expectations of a new record, Conab projects a grain production of 9.4 million tons, a volume 22% higher than the previous harvest.
GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE MARKET
In comparison with the previous period, Conab’s first projections for the 2022/23 harvest indicate an increase in final stocks of:
- Soybeans (45%);
- Beans (31%);
- Corn (20%);
- Cotton (17%).
Thus, concerning domestic consumption, the survey indicates stability in the consumption of rice and beans, a slight increase in the demand for cotton (2%), and an increase in the consumption of corn and soy of 6.2% and 5%, respectively.
For wheat, however, the estimates reduce imports from 6.3 to 6.1 million tons and increase foreign sales from 200,000 tons to 2.7 million tons.
With the consolidation of the data, the country should end the harvest in August 2023 with a carryover stock of 1.19 million tons.
GRAINS: EXPECTATIONS FOR SOY
For soybeans, in 2023, the estimates for grain exports stand out at 95.87 million tons, representing a 22.5% increase over the projected 2022.
“This increase is motivated by a greater Brazilian supply of the grain in the 2022/23 harvest, combined with an increase in world demand and a forecast reduction in exports from the United States,” reinforces the superintendent of market studies and supply management at Conab, Allan Silveira.
As for the oil, the perspective is, however, of a decrease in exports (from 2.1 million tons in 2022 to 1.8 million tons in 2023), given the expectation of greater biodiesel production and that Argentina will return more strongly to the soy oil exporting market in 2023.
A similar situation occurs with the estimates of corn exports. With the projection of higher production and a heated external demand, Conab estimates that 45 million tons will leave the country via ports, representing an increase of 21.6% in cereal exports in 2023.
With information from Canal Rural
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