Anti-military opposition sweeps Thai election and could end junta-backed government

By Santiago Vera Garcia

Initial results show opposition parties Move Forward and Pheu Thai outpolling Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s party.

The election has been described as a turning point for Thailand, which has recently experienced military coups.

Thailand’s opposition won a surprise election victory on Sunday after defeating the ruling party, setting the stage for deals to form a government aimed at ending nearly a decade of conservative, military-backed rule.

Turnout was approximately 39.5 million people, equivalent to 75% of registered voters.

The liberal Move Forward party and the populist Pheu Thai Party were far ahead of the ruling party, with 99% of the votes counted.

Move Forward is led by Pita Limjaroenrat, while Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is the Pheu Thai candidate.

To govern, the opposition parties will need to reach a series of agreements and gather support in multiple camps, including from members of the Senate, whose members have been appointed by the military, which has broad powers to decide who will be the next prime minister and how the next administration will be formed.

While we have to wait for a couple of weeks until the election commission officially confirms the final number of seats won by each party, Monday morning’s forecast indicates that Move Forward would win 113 out of 400 seats, just ahead of the 112 won by Pheu Thai.

The remaining 100 seats for a 500-member House of Representatives are apportioned proportionally.

Pheu Thai has won the votes on every ballot since 2001, including two landslide victories, but three of its four governments have been voted out of office.

A Reuters calculation showed that both opposition parties would win more than three times the number of seats of Palang Pracharat, the junta’s political vehicle, and the military-backed United Thai Nation party.

A joint session of the House of Representatives will be held with the 250-member Senate in July to select the new prime minister, a process seen as undemocratic because senators have been appointed by the military rather than elected by popular will.

Since the coup leaders appointed all the senators, they have consistently voted in favor of the current military-aligned government and never in favor of the opposition.

Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat described the result as “sensational” and promised to stay true to his party’s values in forming a government.

“They will be anti-dictator and military-backed parties, for sure,” she told reporters. “It is safe to assume that minority rule is no longer possible here in Thailand.”

He also added that he remained open to an alliance with Pheu Thai but had his sights set on becoming prime minister.

“Now, it is clear that the Move Forward Party has received overwhelming support from people across the country.”

Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra congratulated Move Forward on its success and said, “We can work together.”

“We are ready to talk with Move Forward, but we are waiting for the official result,” he added.

“The voice of the people is the most important thing.”

The daughter of Pheu Thai founder Thaksin Shinawatra is following in the footsteps of her father and aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, and is seeking to become prime minister. However, both her father and aunt were overthrown by coups.

The preliminary results will be a crushing blow to the military and its allies.

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, a retired general who led the last coup, had campaigned on continuity after nine years in office, warning that a change in government could lead to conflict.

“I hope the country will be peaceful and prosperous,” Prayuth has said.

“I respect democracy and elections. Thank you.”

The election has been a good sign for democratization, said Saowanee Alexander, a professor at Ubon Ratchathani University in Thailand.

“This is the people saying we want to change.”

They are saying they can’t take it anymore. People are very frustrated. They want change, and they could make it,” he said.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, said the rise in support for the Move Forward party demonstrated a major shift in Thai politics.

“Pheu Thai fought in the wrong war. Pheu Thai fought in the war of populism that it had already won.”

“Move Forward takes the game to the next level with institutional reform. That is the new battleground in Thai politics,” he stressed.

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