Ecuador: crime and power struggles bring a democracy to the brink of the abyss

By Derian Delgado

On Wednesday, Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the country’s legislature (17).

This is the head of state’s way of escaping impeachment proceedings, which he was in danger of losing.

He invoked a previously untested constitutional provision known as “muerte cruzada,” or “cross death,” which allows the president to dismiss legislators and rule by decree while facing new elections within 90 days.

Article 148 grants the president the power to dissolve the National Assembly, but only at the cost of allowing voters to vote the president out of office.

The mechanism provides that a special election will be held after dissolution to elect a new president and vice president and a new National Assembly.

The elected candidates – for both the executive and legislative branches – then serve the remainder of the current presidential and legislative terms.

A regular election for a full four-year term will then be held according to the normal election calendar.

Lasso claimed to be defending himself and the country’s democracy, saying, “This is a democratic decision, not only because it is constitutional, but because it returns power to the Ecuadorian people.”

But this argument withers on closer examination.

Faced with a power-hungry opposition, Lasso has chosen to extend his presidential powers to their limits – or possibly beyond.

The constitution allows a “cross death” only under certain conditions, which may not have been met. Nonetheless, the military rallied behind Lasso.

It is not clear that this was in Ecuador’s best interest.

The closure of the National Assembly is likely to fuel instability and, paradoxically, hasten the return to power of Lasso’s arch-enemies: Rafael Vicente Correa Delgado, the strongman who served as president for a decade until 2017, and his left-wing populist party.

Several legal cases against Correa have been ongoing in Ecuador since 2018. In July 2018, an international arrest warrant was issued by an Ecuadorian court on charges of kidnapping.

However, Interpol rejected this after review due to the political nature of the proceedings.

On April 7, 2020, Correa was sentenced in absentia by an Ecuadorian court to eight years in prison on bribery charges.

Even before the crisis, Ecuador was beset by an unprecedented rise in violent crime and increased emigration.

Lasso’s move portends further trouble for one of the region’s most fragile democracies.

The impeachment process was undoubtedly unconscionable.

The opposition, led by Correa’s party and disaffected conservatives, accused the president of tolerating corruption in government contracts but presented little evidence directly implicating him.

It was the second time the opposition tried to oust Lasso, a pro-business conservative elected in 2021.

Lasso described this as an attempt to destabilize his government.

In this, he was at least partially right.

Still, few expected him to politically survive the threat of impeachment, which became a referendum on his presidency.

Lasso, who has little experience in government, has failed to curb skyrocketing crime or combat the widespread poverty and hunger that afflicts 2.5 million Ecuadorians.

Despite sitting on unprecedented reserves due to the rise in oil prices, his government has done dangerously little public spending.

Worse, Lasso indulged in public tirades against opponents and journalists, as befits his populist opponents.

There is a growing yearning for Correa, who ruled with an even, if authoritarian, hand.

Given that his ouster was not certain, Lasso’s decision to dissolve the assembly was politically sound but democratically questionable for several reasons.

First, Lasso’s move risks undermining the already tenuous legitimacy of state institutions.

When popular presidents rule by decree, it can be dangerous; it is a disaster when unpopular presidents do so.

Lasso made it to the runoff that made him president with less than 20% of the vote, securing victory thanks to the grudging support of centrist and center-left voters who were willing to overlook his conservatism to prevent a return of Correa’s illiberal populism.

But he has since alienated these groups of voters while failing to satisfy his conservative base.

His only major legislation was a tax reform that heavily burdens the middle class.

Meanwhile, his administration was rocked by scandals. High-ranking officials accused of corruption and links to organized crime have been found on the run or dead.

Earlier this month, Lasso’s approval rating had dropped below 14%.

Nevertheless, shortly after the assembly closed, a Lasso minister told journalists that his government would seize the moment to rush through a series of executive decrees. If

Lasso uses his unilateral powers, and Ecuador’s powerful indigenous lobby promises to launch protests.

Instead of six months of strong government, the country faces further weakening of the executive branch as the country’s problems come to a head.

Moreover, Lasso’s shutdown of the legislature could well strengthen Correa.

During his time in power, the former populist president reduced inequality and harassed and spied on the press and opposition while accumulating more foreign debt.

The country also moved away from the United States and turned toward China, Russia, and Iran.

When Correa left office in 2017, the country had also moved away from democracy.

His successors have somewhat reversed that, but Ecuador remains a flawed democracy.

Correismo’s problem is not its economic leftism or social conservatism, which have weakened over time.

The party tends to concentrate and cling to power.

Correa did not quietly leave office and unsuccessfully try to install a compliant successor.

Since 2020, he has taken up residence in Belgium to avoid conviction for corruption and to hatch troubling plans for his party’s return to power.

These include replacing Ecuador’s 2008 constitution to purge the government of opponents.

Although Correa’s party is the largest in the assembly, he urged Lasso for months to dissolve it, assuming – with good reason – that early elections would work in his favor. When Lasso did so, Correa openly celebrated.

The more energy Ecuadorian politicians devote to political battles, the less time they have for the country’s most pressing struggle: the fight against organized crime.

Ecuador’s murder rate surpassed Mexico’s last year. Drug-related political murders, kidnappings, and car bombs have become disturbingly commonplace in the once-peaceful country, overwhelming authorities.

The current political crisis further diminishes hopes for progress toward a more stable Ecuador.

Given his unconvincing record and limited support, Lasso’s decree powers are unlikely to help. When the impeachment drama began, Ecuador faced several bad options.

Unfortunately, Lasso probably chose the worst of them.

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