Inflation in Argentina shows slowdown and is estimated at 142.4% by 2023

According to the monthly report by market analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), inflation estimates in the country are showing a deceleration.

The forecast for retail inflation in December 2023 is projected to be 142.4%, which is 6.5 percentage points lower than the previous month’s estimate.

The report, known as the Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM), incorporates the analysis of 39 participants based on data from the last days of June 2023.

The private projection for retail price evolution in 2024 also decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 105% compared to the previous month’s survey.

The report further indicates a deceleration in the expected monthly consumer price index, with a forecast of 7.3% for June compared to May and 7.6% for July.

The official inflation figure for June will be released later this week. As per the latest official data, Argentina recorded a year-on-year inflation of 114.2% in May, with a cumulative increase of 42.2% in the consumer price index during the first five months of 2023.

Regarding economic activity, analysts consulted by the Central Bank maintain the expectation of a 3% contraction in Argentina’s gross domestic product (GDP) for this year, in contrast to the 5.2% growth recorded in 2022 according to official figures.

Additionally, experts project a further 0.6% contraction in GDP for 2024, followed by a 2.6% growth in 2025.

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