The Commerce Confidence Index (ICOM), measured by FGV-Ibre, has shown significant improvement, reaching its highest level since October 2022.
In June, the index rose by 6.9 points to 94.2 points, marking the third consecutive positive result with a quarterly increase of 2.4 points.
Rodolpho Tobler, an economist at FGV-Ibre, notes that trade confidence displays clearer signs of recovery after fluctuations in the first half of 2023.
The positive June result is reflected in both current indicators and expectations, impacting all major segments.
Improved consumer confidence and a slowdown in inflation have positively influenced the sector, generating more optimism for the year’s second half.
However, Tobler emphasizes the importance of sustained improvement in macroeconomic variables for long-term progress.
The rise in the ICOM in June was observed across all six main segments of the sector and in both present and future time horizons.
The Present Situation Index (ISA-COM) increased by 8.8 points to 98.9 points, while the Expectations Index (IE-COM) advanced by 4.6 points to 89.7 points.
Both indices reached their highest levels since October 2022.
FGV-Ibre highlights that trade confidence has been steadily advancing in recent months, contributing to a positive result for the quarter.
However, it is noted that the sector has not fully recovered from the losses experienced in the previous two quarters.
The improved trade confidence reflects positive developments in the sector and generates a sense of optimism, although the recovery process is ongoing and further macroeconomic improvements are essential for sustained progress.