Bitcoin Tests Double-Bottom at $66,800 Before FOMC

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Bitcoin is range-bound and waiting. The daily candle on Bitstamp shows a modest +0.91% recovery from $67,469 to $68,083, with the $66,869 intraday low kissing within $344 of the February 10 session low ($66,525). This potential double-bottom formation is the most constructive short-term pattern BTC has produced in two weeks — but it requires confirmation via a daily close above $70,000 to be actionable. The perpetual contract is slightly negative at $68,140 (−0.39%), reflecting thin overnight volumes and the absence of US institutional flows during yesterday’s Presidents’ Day holiday. US markets reopen today, and the first real test of institutional conviction arrives with the resumption of ETF order flow.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of cryptocurrency markets and Latin American financial markets.

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The structural picture remains sobering. CryptoQuant reports that US ETFs — the cornerstone of the 2024–2025 bull thesis — are net sellers in 2026 after purchasing 46,000 BTC at this time last year. Futures open interest has collapsed by over 20% as the market undergoes what VanEck calls an “orderly deleveraging.” Bitcoin has broken below its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, and has declined 23% in the 83 days since the breakdown — worse than the early 2022 bear phase, according to CryptoQuant. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has announced it will convert $6 billion in convertible bond debt into equity over the next three to six years, insisting the company can survive even if BTC crashes to $8,000. Their 714,644 BTC position carries an average cost of $76,000 — roughly $8,000 above the current market.

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Altcoin performance is divergent and telling. ETH is outperforming at +1.56% ($2,020), suggesting the ETH/BTC ratio is stabilizing after weeks of underperformance. XRP (+0.87%) and DOGE (+1.26%) are modestly bid. But SOL (−1.42%), ADA (−0.70%), and HYPE (−2.17%) are lagging, indicating that risk appetite hasn’t returned to the higher-beta names. The true mover action is in micro-caps: CYBER surged 29.36% on $19.4M volume, WLFI (World Liberty Financial, the Trump-linked DeFi project) jumped 16.42%, and JTO gained 8.04%. On the downside, RIVER collapsed 34.72% (mean-reverting yesterday’s +53% pump) and PIPPIN lost 27.63%. This is classic late-bear-market behavior: low-cap pumps and dumps dominating while majors consolidate.

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The Fear & Greed Index at 10 has now been in Extreme Fear territory for the entirety of February — an duration approaching the FTX-collapse record. Analyst Ash Crypto argues the monthly RSI structure supports a potential cycle bottom at $50,000, aligned with a decade-long upward trendline. The 40–50% drawdown from October’s $126,198 peak is mathematically consistent with previous post-halving cooling periods (the April 2024 halving being 17 months prior). Whether this is a bear market or a healthy correction within a longer cycle depends entirely on the next macro catalyst — and that catalyst arrives today with the FOMC minutes.

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Daily timeframe (TradingView, Feb 18 08:03 UTC): BTC/USD on Bitstamp printed O: 67,469 / H: 68,169 / L: 66,869 / C: 68,083 (+615, +0.91%). The candle forms a small bullish body with a longer lower wick — a hammer-like structure that mirrors gold’s recovery pattern today. The Ichimoku cloud remains massively overhead: Senkou Span A at approximately 81,202 and Senkou Span B at 83,060, with the 200-day SMA at 99,877 — a full 47% above current price. The Tenkan-sen ($71,190) and Kijun-sen ($75,184) are both well above price and declining, confirming a fully bearish Ichimoku structure. Price is trading just below the Bollinger midline at $68,208 — reclaiming this level on a closing basis would be the first technical step toward range expansion.

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The MACD shows continued improvement: the line sits at −4,538 with the signal at −4,972, keeping the histogram positive at 434 — a third consecutive session of expansion (434 → 397 → 267). Both lines remain deeply negative and well below zero, but the narrowing gap represents genuine momentum improvement. The MACD signal crossover (histogram turning positive after a deep bearish phase) is often the earliest technical indication that selling momentum is exhausting. RSI reads 36.10 (signal at 32.51), essentially unchanged from yesterday’s 35.79. The signal line at 32.51 is in oversold territory — below 33 for the first time since the February 6 capitulation low — which historically precedes 10–15% bounces. The Bollinger Bands continue to compress: the band width (upper 78,935 to lower 61,179) is the narrowest since mid-January, setting up a volatility squeeze that will resolve forcefully once a catalyst arrives.

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FOMC Minutes (today): The week’s defining catalyst. The January meeting minutes will reveal the committee’s internal debate on the rate path after the 10-2 hold at 3.50–3.75%. Markets are pricing ~10% odds of a March cut and ~62bps of total easing by year-end. Dovish language — particularly any discussion of productivity-driven easing (the Einhorn/Warsh thesis) or acknowledgment that disinflation is on track — would likely push BTC above $70,000 within the session. Hawkish surprises could trigger a $66,525 retest.

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Supreme Court tariff ruling (as early as Feb 20): A binary risk event with massive repricing potential. Polymarket gives a 70% probability the court strikes down Trump’s tariffs. An invalidation would trigger risk-on across equities, commodities, and crypto — potentially the catalyst that breaks BTC out of the $66,500–$70,400 consolidation. An unfavorable ruling would intensify the risk-off environment and could push BTC toward $60,000.

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ETF flow resumption: After Monday’s Presidents’ Day holiday, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs resume trading today. CoinShares reported $1.7 billion in weekly outflows last week, with year-to-date outflows totaling $1 billion. Whether ETF flows turn positive this week — particularly in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes — will be a critical signal for whether institutional conviction is returning or continuing to erode.

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Four-year cycle thesis: Analyst Ash Crypto argues the monthly RSI structure supports a potential cycle bottom at $50,000, consistent with Bitcoin’s decade-long upward trendline. The current 46% drawdown from October’s $126,198 ATH is mathematically aligned with previous post-halving cooling periods. Canary Capital’s Steven McClurg expects BTC to reach $50,000 by summer. Against this, the contrarian case: Fear & Greed at 10 for three consecutive weeks has historically preceded 30–50% rallies (Dec 2025 trough of 5 → nearly $100K in January; April 2025 trough of 17 → $74.5K to $105K in May). The question is timing — and the FOMC minutes may provide the answer.

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