Are India and Pakistan Heading Toward a Water Conflict?

(Analysis) India has recently called to review the Indus Waters Treaty, which has governed water sharing with Pakistan since 1960.

India’s push for changes comes as climate change threatens water security in the region. The treaty divides control of six rivers in the Indus system between India and Pakistan.

India manages the Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers. Pakistan oversees the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers. This arrangement has endured through four wars between the countries.

Now, India wants to amend the treaty to better support its grain-producing regions. These areas face increasing challenges due to climate change. India argues that the current allocation doesn’t account for its larger population and growing needs.

In August 2024, India sent a formal notice to Pakistan requesting treaty modifications. This follows a similar notice issued in January 2023. India cites several reasons for the proposed changes.

These include altered demographics, climate impacts, and clean energy development needs. Climate change poses a significant threat to water availability in the Indus River Basin.

Experts predict a 50% water deficit in the basin by 2030. India’s water demand could potentially double the available supply. This situation has heightened concerns about future water security.

India also points out that the treaty’s provisions are based on outdated technology. Modern hydroelectric projects with advanced features are currently restricted under the agreement. India believes these limitations hinder its ability to harness clean energy effectively.

Another factor driving India’s push for review is security concerns. The country has linked cross-border terrorism to the need for treaty modifications. This connection adds a complex political dimension to the water-sharing issue.

Are India and Pakistan Heading Toward a Water Conflict?

Pakistan, however, has generally opposed major changes to the treaty. As the lower riparian state, Pakistan heavily relies on the Indus Basin for agriculture and other needs. Any alterations to the water allocation could significantly impact Pakistan’s water security.

The World Bank, a signatory to the treaty, plays a crucial role in dispute resolution. However, India has expressed frustration with the bank’s handling of recent disagreements. These disputes involve specific hydroelectric projects like Kishenganga and Ratle.

Experts suggest that any modifications to the treaty should address several key areas. These include incorporating climate change considerations and updating data-sharing mechanisms.

Addressing new technological capabilities and strengthening dispute resolution processes are also important. The push for review presents both challenges and opportunities for India-Pakistan relations.

It offers a chance to modernize the treaty and address contemporary issues. However, successful modifications will require careful diplomacy and a focus on mutual benefits.

As climate change continues to affect water resources, the importance of this treaty grows. Both countries face the challenge of balancing their needs with regional stability.

The outcome of this review process could shape water management in South Asia for years to come.