A Stress Test Passed
Ambev’s CFO Guilherme Fleury called 2025 a stress test. The Brazilian beer industry contracted by 4.5 percent — a decline not seen in a 10-to-12-year data series — as unusually cold temperatures from May onward suppressed consumption across the Southeast and South, the country’s two largest markets. Roughly 70 percent of the industry’s volume loss was attributable to weather alone, according to the company’s analysis.
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But the numbers underneath told a different story. Despite a 3.3 percent drop in organic volume, Ambev posted 4 percent net revenue growth — driven by premiumization, revenue management, and a favorable product mix — and expanded its adjusted Ebitda margin by 50 basis points to 33.4 percent. Net income rose 8.2 percent to 16 billion reais ($2.7 billion). The company returned 20 billion reais ($3.4 billion) to shareholders, its highest ever, including 13.2 billion reais in dividends and a new 2.5 billion reais buyback program.
Winning Where Growth Lives
The divergence within Ambev’s portfolio was stark. Core brands like Skol and Brahma — the high-volume, lower-margin backbone — fell by a high single digit. Premium brands moved in the opposite direction: Corona, Spaten, Stella Artois, and Original grew 17 percent in volume, while zero-alcohol offerings including Corona Cero and Budweiser Zero surged 30 percent. Stella Pure Gold, launched in 2023 as the first gluten-free beer from a major Brazilian brewer, expanded 153 percent.
Fleury said the company led market share gains in Q4 specifically in the premium and zero-alcohol segments — the two categories showing structural growth. Rather than cutting marketing spend during the downturn, Ambev chose to protect brand investment and instead found efficiencies in production, logistics, and supply chain. Employee bonuses were reduced, but internal engagement scores hit an all-time high.
The 2026 Playbook
Management framed 2026 around three consumption trends: easy-drinking beverages suited to Brazil’s heat, flavored options with fruit or citrus profiles — addressed by the Brazilian launch of South African brand Flying Fish — and health-and-wellness products including low-calorie and functional drinks. The recent launch of Skol 0.0, an alcohol-free, zero-sugar, gluten-free beer under the company’s largest mass-market brand, signals the intent to bring the zero-alcohol trend into the core segment, not just the premium tier.
World Cup as Tailwind
The biggest external catalyst is the FIFA World Cup, held in June and July across the United States, Mexico, and Canada — the first edition with 48 teams and the most matches in tournament history. Brazil’s group-stage games kick off at 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. Brasília time, prime hours for bars and gatherings. Those months were precisely when cold weather crushed volumes in 2025. Ambev’s bet is straightforward: the same calendar window that delivered the worst industry decline in a decade could, with warmer weather and a World Cup, deliver the sharpest rebound. The company just needs the weather to cooperate and its operational muscle to convert occasions into sales.
For more context, read Brazil’s Morning Call and the USD/BRL exchange rate report.
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