Africa Intelligence Brief — October 2, 2025

Energy and deal-flow led today’s tape. Brazzaville is fast‑tracking a new gas code and a licensing round, Dakar wants a second refinery, Abidjan expanded its exploration map, and Maputo gained another FLNG go‑ahead.

Addis drew U.S. backing for a $10 billion hub airport, Nouakchott signed its first IPP, and Rabat/Abuja moved to formalise a company for the trans‑Sahel gas corridor.

On the political side, opposition groupings in Somalia coalesced and Harare opened a UNSC bid. Here’s the region‑by‑region read—and why it matters.

North Africa

Morocco/Nigeria: Company to be set up for the $25 bn Nigeria–Morocco gas pipeline

Officials said the joint company that will drive the long‑planned, 7,000‑km pipeline will be formally established, moving the project into a clearer execution phase.

Why it matters: A corporate vehicle is key for FEED, financing, and risk allocation across >10 transit states—unlocking bankability for West Africa–to–Europe gas flows.

West Africa

Senegal: Government targets construction start on a new oil refinery in 2026

The SAR chief said Senegal seeks $2–5 bn for a second refinery and has received initial financing offers from Asia and Turkey, with construction planned to begin next year.

Why it matters: Domestic refining lowers import bills, bolsters FX buffers, and supports downstream jobs as Sangomar output ramps.

Côte d’Ivoire: Abidjan awards 11 new mining exploration permits

Authorities granted new permits to local and international firms, expanding the pipeline of gold and critical‑minerals projects.

Why it matters: A broader exploration base sustains production and fiscal receipts while diversifying beyond cocoa.

Mauritania: First‑ever IPP—$300 m, 60 MW solar–wind hybrid plant

Nouakchott signed an IPP deal with Iwa Green Energy to build a 60 MW hybrid facility, the country’s first private power project.

Why it matters: Private capital into generation eases grid constraints and reduces diesel import dependence.

East Africa

Ethiopia: U.S. backs $10 bn Bishoftu international hub airport plan

Addis Standard reports U.S. support for Ethiopian Airlines’ planned new hub south‑east of Addis Ababa—flagged as a marquee Horn‑of‑Africa infrastructure initiative.

Why it matters: A new hub would expand cargo/passenger capacity, anchor aerospace services, and reinforce Ethiopia’s role in Africa–Asia routes.

Somalia: Regional leaders and opposition form ‘Somali Future Council’ in Nairobi

Jubaland and Puntland leaders joined opposition figures to coordinate positions on Somalia’s political transition and security.

Why it matters: Consolidated opposition platforms can reshape bargaining with Mogadishu ahead of reforms and security handovers.

Rwanda: Kigali launches national CyberHub to build cybersecurity skills

Government and partners unveiled a CyberHub to train talent and support startups in cyber defence and digital innovation.

Why it matters: Cyber capacity is now core economic infrastructure; skills pipelines lower enterprise risk premiums and attract digital FDI.

Central Africa

Republic of Congo (Congo‑Brazzaville): New gas code ‘this month’, licensing round before year‑end

At Africa Energy Week, the hydrocarbons minister said Brazzaville will pass a gas code to woo investment and launch an oil‑and‑gas licensing round; Eni’s Nguya FLNG is set to lift LNG capacity.

Why it matters: Clearer gas rules plus acreage access can accelerate LNG exports and monetise associated gas, improving fiscal stability.

Southern Africa

Mozambique: Eni takes final investment decision on ‘Coral North’ FLNG

Eni signed off on a second floating LNG unit (≈3.5 mtpa) in the Rovuma Basin, doubling offshore LNG capacity independent of onshore security risks.

Why it matters: Additional FLNG boosts export earnings and underpins long‑term gas monetisation despite insurgency‑related delays onshore.

Zimbabwe: Harare launches campaign for 2027–28 UN Security Council seat

Zimbabwe formally kicked off its bid for a non‑permanent UNSC seat, highlighting multilateral priorities.

Why it matters: A successful bid would elevate diplomatic profile and could influence investor sentiment on governance and reform.

Corporate & Markets

Botswana: Grocer Choppies reports profit surge to P1.8 bn

Choppies said FY profit hit P1.8 bn, with revenue up by P1.2 bn and 30 new stores added; management guided for sustained growth.

Why it matters: Regional retail expansion signals resilient consumer demand pockets and improving supply‑chain logistics in Southern Africa.

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