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Africa Intelligence Brief for Wednesday, February 11, 2026
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February 11, 2026
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11 min read
What Matters Today
Read about Africa Intelligence Brief for Wednesday, February 11, 2026 on The Rio Times.
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1 Cyclone Gezani devastates Madagascar — at least 20 dead, 195+ km/h winds slam Toamasina; storm tracking west toward Mozambique; second cyclone in 11 days after Fytia
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2 AU Executive Council opens in Addis Ababa — 48th session shapes 2026 continental strategy ahead of Heads of State summit this weekend; water security and G20 positioning top agenda
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3 Zimbabwe cabinet backs constitutional amendments to extend Mnangagwa rule to 2030 — presidential terms stretched from five to seven years; parliament would elect president instead of popular vote
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4 Nigeria Senate reverses course on electoral act — approves electronic transmission of results to INEC portal after nationwide protests; manual fallback retained for network failures
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01
\nMarket Snapshot
\nClose Feb 11
\nMarket Snapshot
\nClose Feb 11
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| PAIR / INDEX | LEVEL | DAY CHG | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| JSE All Share | ~88,200 | -0.4% | ▼ rand weakness |
| NGX All Share | ~105,800 | +0.3% | ▲ electoral act optimism |
| NSE 20 (Nairobi) | ~1,920 | +0.2% | ▲ |
| EGX 30 (Cairo) | ~32,400 | +0.5% | ▲ |
| USD/ZAR | ~18.45 | +0.3% | ▼ rand weakens on metals pullback |
| USD/NGN | ~1,520 | -0.1% | ▲ CBN BDC FX sales boost |
| Brent Crude | $67.80/bbl | flat | — US–Iran talks overhang |
| Gold | $5,019/oz | -0.9% | ▼ pullback from highs |
| Copper | ~$9,350/t | +0.4% | ▲ DRC supply chain focus |
| Cobalt | ~$24,500/t | +0.8% | ▲ US–DRC deals lift sentiment |
| Cocoa | ~$8,200/t | -1.2% | ▼ W. Africa midcrop weighs |
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02
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
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\nCritical
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\nCritical
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Ethiopia – Tigray
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UN rights chief Türk warns of new crisis after ENDF–TSF clashes erupted Jan 26 near Amhara border; drones and artillery deployed by both sides; Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions rising; Abiy formally acknowledged Eritrean atrocities during 2020–22 war for first time; Pretoria peace deal at risk of collapse
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\nEscalating
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\nEscalating
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Sudan Civil War
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Fighting between SAF and RSF continues with catastrophic humanitarian toll; South Sudan peace deal unravelling as government–opposition fighting escalates; UN funding declining for region
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\nTense
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\nTense
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DRC – Eastern Congo
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SA begins withdrawing 700+ peacekeepers from MONUSCO after 27 years; US mineral deals draw growing domestic opposition; M23 ceasefire holding but fragile; Mantashe clashes with DRC minister at Mining Indaba over US partnership
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\nWatching
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\nWatching
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Guinea – Conakry
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Heavy automatic gunfire near central prison Tuesday; special forces and armoured vehicles deployed around presidential palace district; linked to transfer of 2009 massacre figure Diakite; Doumbouya regime under pressure months after disputed election landslide
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03
\nFast Take
\nFast Take
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BREAKINGCyclone Gezani makes landfall in Toamasina with 195+ km/h winds — at least 20 dead, 33 injured; storm now crossing central Madagascar toward Mozambique Channel; second cyclone in 11 days; OCHA warns of compounding humanitarian crisis
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GOVERNZimbabwe cabinet approves draft bill extending presidential terms to seven years — would let Mnangagwa, 83, stay until 2030; also proposes parliament elect president; opposition insists referendum required; ZANU-PF controls both chambers
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REFORMNigeria Senate reverses electoral act rejection — emergency session approves electronic transmission of results to INEC’s IReV portal; Form EC8A remains fallback for network failures; bill headed to conference committee, expected to reach Tinubu by end of February
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SUMMITAU Executive Council convenes in Addis Ababa — 48th session prepares for Heads of State summit Feb 14–15; 2026 theme: water security and sanitation; institutional reform, G20 positioning, and AU organ elections on agenda
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CRISISJohannesburg water crisis deepens — WaterCAN demands city be declared disaster area; parts of Parktown and Emmarentia without water for 21+ days; Joburg Water workers strike over unpaid bonuses worsens shortages; Rand Water warns of system strain from persistently high consumption
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SECURITYHeavy gunfire erupts near Conakry central prison — automatic weapons fire for 30+ minutes; armoured vehicles deployed around Kaloum presidential district; linked to forced transfer of 2009 massacre perpetrator Diakite to prison 50 km away; Doumbouya regime silent
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04
\nDevelopments to Watch
\nDevelopments to Watch
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HORN OF AFRICAEthiopia’s Tigray Peace Unravels as Eritrea Tensions Spike
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UN Human Rights Chief Türk issued urgent appeal after renewed heavy fighting between Ethiopian National Defence Forces and Tigray Security Forces that intensified from January 26. Drones, artillery, and other heavy weapons were deployed by both sides near the Amhara border in the disputed Tselemti area. A rival Tigray Peace Forces faction is simultaneously fighting the TSF in southern Tigray and Afar. PM Abiy formally acknowledged for the first time that Eritrean troops committed mass killings during the 2020–22 war. Ethiopia has issued an ultimatum demanding Eritrea withdraw troops. The Pretoria agreement’s regional brokers — Kenya, South Africa, and Nigeria — face calls to re-engage before the deal collapses entirely. One million Tigrayans remain internally displaced.
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SOUTHERN AFRICAZimbabwe’s Constitutional Power Grab Takes Shape
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Cabinet approved draft legislation that would replace direct presidential elections with parliamentary selection and extend terms from five to seven years. The bill would effectively allow 83-year-old President Mnangagwa to stay in power until 2030 despite the 2013 constitution’s two-term limit. Justice Minister Ziyambi said public consultations will be held before parliament debates it. ZANU-PF holds a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house and controls the upper chamber through traditional leaders. Constitutional experts and opposition figures led by Bulawayo Mayor David Coltart insist a national referendum is legally required. The death last week of leading internal critic Blessed Geza removed a powerful voice of dissent.
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WEST AFRICANigeria’s Electoral Act U-Turn After Street Pressure
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The Senate reversed its February 4 rejection of mandatory electronic result transmission in an emergency session that descended into rowdy debate. The new amendment to Section 60(3) allows presiding officers to electronically transmit results to INEC’s IReV portal, with Form EC8A as a fallback for network failure. Peter Obi led protests at the National Assembly on Monday; the Nigeria Labour Congress threatened mass action. Senate President Akpabio signalled the bill could reach President Tinubu for signature by month’s end. A 12-member conference committee will harmonise the Senate and House versions. INEC is simultaneously preparing for FCT Area Council elections and governorship polls in Ekiti (June) and Osun (August).
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CENTRAL AFRICAUS–DRC Mineral Deal Opposition Grows as China Scrambles
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Opposition to President Tshisekedi’s US mineral partnership intensified after his return from the Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, where 54 countries participated. Archbishop Fulgence Muteba of CENCO likened the deal to “selling off the minerals of an entire nation to save a regime.” Glencore is in talks to sell a 40% stake in its DRC copper-cobalt operations to the US-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium for $9 billion. South Africa’s mining minister Mantashe accused the DRC of “selling out” at the Africa Mining Indaba, calling it a US “divide and conquer” strategy. Chinese analysts warn of “structural deficiency” in cobalt supply chains. DRC’s untapped eastern minerals are estimated at $24 trillion. US firm Virtus Minerals signed a deal for 95% of distressed miner Chemaf.
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INDIAN OCEANCyclone Gezani Devastates Toamasina; Mozambique on Alert
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Cyclone Gezani made landfall near Toamasina (population 400,000) Tuesday evening with sustained winds of 175 km/h and gusts exceeding 195 km/h — one of the most intense cyclone strikes in the satellite era, rivalling Geralda in 1994. At least 20 dead, 33 injured, with widespread building collapses, flooding, and power outages. Residents described the damage as “monstrous.” The storm is now tracking westward across the central highlands and is expected to re-intensify to cyclone strength over the Mozambique Channel, threatening the African mainland by February 13. This comes just 11 days after Cyclone Fytia killed 12 and displaced 31,000. OCHA has issued a flash update citing compounding humanitarian needs across nine affected regions.
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SOUTH AFRICAJohannesburg Faces “Day Zero” Water Emergency
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WaterCAN has demanded Johannesburg be declared a disaster area as parts of the city endure 21+ days without water. A cracked Hursthill Reservoir 2 under repair since November is the proximate cause. SA Municipal Workers’ Union launched an unprotected strike on February 6 over unpaid bonuses, compounding the crisis. Nationally, 47% of piped water is lost through leaks, Joburg has less than 12 hours of storage capacity (versus the 48-hour standard), and 22 water systems are “critically endangered.” Rand Water has warned it will reduce supply to high-consuming municipalities. DA mayoral candidate Helen Zille blamed decades of infrastructure neglect. Factories in Selby have been without water for 20+ weeks.
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CONTINENTALAU Summit Week: Water Security and Reform Dominate
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The AU Executive Council’s 48th session opened at Mandela Conference Hall under the 2026 theme of water security and sanitation. Foreign ministers are preparing draft decisions for the Assembly of Heads of State (Feb 14–15), where approximately 20,000 delegates are expected. Key agenda items include institutional reform, Africa’s G20 participation framework, the African Continental Free Trade Area implementation, and AU organ elections. Rwanda’s representative highlighted water security, regional peace, and economic integration. Ethiopia’s maritime access ambitions and the Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions are expected to dominate corridor conversations.
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EAST AFRICAEthiopian Airlines Soars to $4.4B Half-Year Revenue
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Africa’s largest commercial carrier reported $4.4 billion in half-year revenue — up 14% year-on-year and 2% above target. CEO Mesfin Tasew announced 145 international destinations after adding Porto, Hanoi, and Abu Dhabi; 170 aircraft in fleet; 10 million passengers transported; and cargo volumes up 19% to 451,000 tons. The airline unveiled its Bishoftu mega-airport project (40 km south of Addis Ababa) with ~36 international contractors expressing interest; the $10–12.5 billion facility targets 60 million passengers in its first phase by November 2029 and 110 million at full capacity. Australia route planned for 2028 pending aircraft deliveries.
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WEST AFRICASomaliland Presses for US Recognition After Israeli Boost
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Somaliland officials are leveraging Israel’s recent recognition to press Washington for a similar move, emphasising their strategic Red Sea coastline position and natural resources. The territory has operated as a self-governing republic since 1991 with its own institutions. Supporters in Washington argue recognition could bolster US security interests in the Horn of Africa. Somaliland is deepening cooperation with Israel in technology, agriculture, and water management while expanding partnerships cautiously. The AU, EU, and several regional powers have criticised the Israeli recognition as “driven by geopolitics.” Ethiopia’s controversial Somaliland port deal remains a key regional flashpoint.
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SOUTHERN AFRICASouth Africa Begins MONUSCO Withdrawal After 27 Years
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South Africa has begun withdrawing its 700+ peacekeepers from the UN’s MONUSCO mission in the DRC. President Ramaphosa informed UN Secretary-General Guterres on January 12, citing the need to realign SANDF resources. South Africa has been one of MONUSCO’s top troop contributors for nearly three decades. The withdrawal coincides with Angola’s first major copper mine shipping its first concentrates in January, Kenya facing potential aviation strikes, and the broader theme of African nations repositioning their security and economic commitments. MONUSCO, with 12,400+ personnel, has recorded 304 fatalities since its establishment in 2010.
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05
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
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| COUNTRY | EVENT | ASSESSMENT |
|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | CBN approves $150K weekly FX sales to each licensed BDC | Positive for naira stability; parallel market pressure may ease |
| South Africa | SARB expected to hold rates; seeks ECB repo line access | Rand under pressure from gold pullback and infrastructure risk |
| DRC | Glencore–Orion $9B deal; Virtus buys 95% of Chemaf | Sovereign leverage rising alongside minerals geopolitics |
| Zimbabwe | Constitutional amendments for 2030 extension; hyperinflation legacy | Political risk rising; economy improving but corruption drags |
| Ethiopia | Airlines $4.4B H1 revenue; Tigray fighting resumes | Split picture: commercial aviation thriving vs security deteriorating |
| Madagascar | Cyclone Gezani devastation; second major cyclone in 11 days | Reconstruction costs mounting; climate vulnerability extreme |
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06
\nPower Players
\nPower Players
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| WHO | ROLE | WHY IT MATTERS |
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| Emmerson Mnangagwa | President, Zimbabwe | Cabinet approved term extension to 2030 — constitutional crisis brewing |
| Godswill Akpabio | Senate President, Nigeria | Steered electoral act reversal after street protests; promised presidential assent by end-Feb |
| Volker Türk | UN High Commissioner for Human Rights | Issued urgent Tigray appeal; warned Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions could trigger wider Horn crisis |
| Félix Tshisekedi | President, DRC | Trading mineral access for US security guarantees; facing growing domestic opposition to deal |
| Gwede Mantashe | Mineral Resources Minister, SA | Clashed with DRC at Mining Indaba; accused Kinshasa of enabling US “divide and conquer” |
| Mesfin Tasew | CEO, Ethiopian Airlines | $4.4B H1 revenue; $10–12.5B Bishoftu airport project underway |
| Mamady Doumbouya | President, Guinea | Prison gunfire incident tests regime stability months after disputed landslide election |
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07
\nRegulatory & Policy Watch
\nRegulatory & Policy Watch
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| JURISDICTION | MEASURE | STATUS / IMPACT |
|---|---|---|
| Nigeria | Electoral Act 2026 amendment (e-transmission) | Passed Senate; conference committee harmonising versions; Tinubu assent expected by Feb end |
| Nigeria | CBN weekly BDC FX sales ($150K per operator) | In effect; aims to improve FX access and reduce parallel market spread |
| Zimbabwe | Constitutional amendment bill (7-year terms, parliamentary election of president) | Cabinet approved; heading to gazette and parliament; legal challenges expected |
| DRC | US Strategic Asset Reserve access framework | Glencore–Orion deal advancing; Tshisekedi facing constitutional challenges to mineral partnership |
| South Africa | Madlanga Commission continuing hearings on criminal justice corruption | Key witness testimony ongoing; implications for justice system credibility |
| AU | 2026 theme implementation: water security and sanitation | Executive Council drafting actionable pathways; Heads of State to adopt framework Feb 14–15 |
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08
\nCalendar
\nNext 72 Hours
\nCalendar
\nNext 72 Hours
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| DATE | EVENT | SIGNIFICANCE |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11–12 | AU Executive Council 48th session, Addis Ababa | Final preparatory decisions for Heads of State summit |
| Feb 11 | Cyclone Gezani crosses Madagascar central highlands | Flash floods and landslides expected; Mozambique prepares for re-intensified storm by Feb 13 |
| Feb 11 | Madlanga Commission hearings continue, South Africa | Criminal justice corruption probe; high-profile witness testimony |
| Feb 12 | Nigeria Electoral Act conference committee begins | Senate–House harmonisation of e-transmission clause |
| Feb 13 | Cyclone Gezani projected to enter Mozambique Channel | Expected to re-intensify to cyclone strength; Mozambique coastal areas at risk |
| Feb 14–15 | AU Assembly of Heads of State, 39th session, Addis Ababa | Adoption of 2026 continental strategy; water security framework; institutional reform decisions |
| Feb (late) | Zimbabwe constitutional amendment bill gazetted | Public consultations before parliament debate; legal challenges from civil society expected |
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09
\nBottom Line
\nBottom Line
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Africa enters its biggest diplomatic week of 2026 with the continent’s fractures on full display. In Addis Ababa, foreign ministers are drafting the continental vision for the year — water security as the binding theme — while 1,500 km away Toamasina lies devastated by the second cyclone in eleven days, a reminder that the infrastructure gap turns weather events into catastrophes. The political picture is equally divergent: Nigeria’s Senate bowed to street pressure and reversed its rejection of electronic vote transmission — a rare win for civic mobilisation in Africa’s most populous democracy. In Harare, the opposite: ZANU-PF used cabinet to approve the mechanics of indefinite rule, proposing to end direct presidential elections altogether. The great-power mineral scramble accelerates. Washington’s Critical Minerals Ministerial drew 54 countries; Glencore is negotiating a $9 billion Congo deal with a US-backed consortium; Chinese analysts warn of “structural deficiency” in cobalt supply chains. South Africa’s mining minister publicly accused the DRC of selling out the continent — an extraordinary split at the Mining Indaba. Meanwhile, in the Horn, the Pretoria agreement’s three-year peace is crumbling: Ethiopian and Tigrayan forces are using drones and artillery again, Abiy has finally named Eritrea’s war crimes, and the UN is warning that a return to full-scale conflict is possible. Common thread: the institutions meant to mediate Africa’s crises — the AU, the UN, the Pretoria framework — are all being tested at once, and the external powers showing up with cheques are asking for minerals in return.
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Africa Intelligence Brief
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Daily Edition · Wednesday, February 11, 2026
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Data sourced from Reuters, Al Jazeera, allAfrica, Bloomberg, UN News, ACLED, Crisis Group, Daily Maverick, Premium Times, Africanews, OCHA, ENA, and national press agencies. Market data as of close of trading February 11, 2026.
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This is part of The Rio Times’ coverage of African business and economic developments for the global financial community.
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