1 Kenya airport strike ends after two-day shutdown — KAWU calls off action at JKIA after transport ministry brokers deal; passengers slept on floors; Kenya Airways saw 4-hour delays; Uganda Airlines cancelled flights; normal operations resuming
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2 DRC ceasefire takes effect Wednesday noon — Angola-proposed Feb 18 truce deadline arrives tomorrow; Tshisekedi accepted “in principle”; M23 denounced as “manipulation”; MONUSCO in Goma preparing verification mechanism; seventh ceasefire attempt since 2021
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3 Nigeria launches Temu data probe — NDPC opens investigation into 12.7M Nigerian users’ data; citing surveillance, cross-border transfers, data-minimisation violations; follows ₦766M MultiChoice fine and $220M Meta penalty
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4 Ramadan begins across Africa — Saudi Arabia confirms first day of fasting Wednesday Feb 18; partial solar eclipse visible across southern Africa today; JSE opens lower at ~120,025 as gold miners retreat on profit-taking; cocoa at lowest since Oct 2023
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01
\nMarket Snapshot
\nIntraday / Close Feb 17
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PAIR / INDEX
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LEVEL
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Δ
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SIGNAL
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JSE All Share
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~120,025
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−0.80%
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▼ Gold miners retreat; profit-taking
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USD / ZAR
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~16.03
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−0.6%
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▼ Rand softening from 3.5-yr high
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USD / NGN
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~1,425
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+0.1%
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▲ Parallel mkt steady; CBN FX supply
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USD / KES
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~128.5
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Flat
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— JKIA strike adds pressure to KES outlook
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Gold
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~$4,928/oz
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−1.6%
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▼ Slipped below $5,000; profit-taking
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Brent Crude
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~$67.40/bbl
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−0.6%
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▼ Iran diplomacy eases supply fears
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Cocoa (ICE)
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~$3,780/t
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−0.7%
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▼ Lowest since Oct 2023; surplus bites
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JSE retreating from record highs as gold miners sell off on gold’s slip below $5,000/oz. Rand softening to ~16.03/USD after touching 3.5-year high last week. Cocoa collapse continues — below $3,800/t for first time since Oct 2023; Ghana cuts farmgate price 29% to GH¢2,587/bag as 50,000t sits unsold at ports. Brent easing on Iran diplomacy progress. Naira steady on parallel market at ~₦1,425.
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02
\nConflict & Stability Tracker
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\nCritical
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DRC — Ceasefire Deadline Wednesday
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Angola-proposed ceasefire takes effect noon Feb 18; Tshisekedi accepted “in principle”; M23 denounces terms as “manipulation”; MONUSCO acting head van de Perre in Goma preparing verification; Rwanda’s FM skeptical; fighting ongoing around Minembwe, South Kivu
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\nCritical
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Sudan — RSF Drone Strikes; Ramadan Amid Famine
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RSF drone strike killed 24 including 8 children near Rahad; separate strikes hit WFP convoys; 21M face acute food insecurity; Ramadan begins tomorrow — third year of war; 33.7M needing aid; UNSC briefing this month at ministerial level
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\nEscalating
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South Africa — SANDF Deployment; Crime Crisis
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SANDF deployment to Western Cape and Gauteng imminent; experts warn against normalisation of military policing; fourth e-hailing murder suspect surrendered; Meyiwa trial continues; Madlanga Commission witness Wednesday
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\nTense
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Kenya — JKIA Strike Ends; Aviation Hub Disrupted
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KAWU strike called off Tuesday after two days; Kenya Airways 4-hr delays; passengers stranded overnight; union defied court order; transport ministry brokered deal; CBA and contract conversion demands unresolved
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03
\nFast Take
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Ceasefires, Crescent Moons, and Digital Sovereignty
\nThree threads converge today. The DRC ceasefire deadline arrives tomorrow at noon — the seventh such attempt since M23’s resurgence in 2021, and arguably the most consequential, with MONUSCO now physically present in Goma and the AU’s Gnassingbé mediation track running in parallel. But M23’s public rejection of the terms as “manipulation,” combined with active fighting around Minembwe, makes tomorrow’s noon deadline more of a test of international resolve than a genuine inflection point. History says the ceasefire will be declared and then ignored.
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\nIn East Africa, the JKIA strike exposed the fragility of Kenya’s position as the region’s aviation hub. Air traffic controllers walked out despite a court order, stranding passengers overnight and forcing Kenya Airways into four-hour delays — a reputational cost that compounds just as Nairobi fights to maintain its gateway status against Addis Ababa and Kigali. The union won its deal, but the damage to investor confidence in Kenyan infrastructure reliability is harder to undo.
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\nMeanwhile, Nigeria’s data regulator has fired a warning shot at Temu, opening a formal investigation into the Chinese platform’s handling of 12.7 million Nigerian users’ data. Coming after the ₦766M MultiChoice fine and the $220M Meta penalty, the NDPC is establishing Nigeria as Africa’s most assertive digital regulator — a posture that will define terms of engagement for every tech platform eyeing the continent’s largest internet market. And as Ramadan begins across Muslim Africa tomorrow, the contrast is stark: Sudan enters the holy month with 21 million people food-insecure, while cocoa prices hit lows not seen since 2023 — reshaping the revenue outlook for the very nations that can least afford the shock.
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04
\nDevelopments to Watch
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Kenya Airport Strike Ends After Two-Day Shutdown of Africa’s Key Hub
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Kenya’s aviation workers called off their strike Tuesday after two days of disruption at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, one of Africa’s busiest air transport hubs. The Kenya Aviation Workers Union launched the action despite a court order, citing the failure to conclude a collective bargaining agreement and unfulfilled directives requiring employers to convert 70+ long-serving contractual staff to permanent positions. During the strike, passengers slept on airport floors overnight, Kenya Airways saw delays of up to four hours, Uganda Airlines cancelled flights, and Jambojet told passengers not to travel to the airport. The transport ministry brokered the resolution, though recovery timelines remain unclear. The strike highlights chronic labour relations failures across Kenya’s state-linked aviation entities.
The Angola-proposed ceasefire between the DRC government and Rwanda-backed M23 is scheduled to take effect at noon on February 18. President Tshisekedi formally accepted the truce “in principle” on February 13, and an insider source confirmed the DRC government agreed to the specific date. However, M23 has denounced the proposal as “delaying tactics and attempts at manipulation by the Kinshasa regime,” accusing the DRC of continuing “indiscriminate attacks.” Rwanda’s Foreign Minister warned the deal would fail without political will from Kinshasa. MONUSCO’s acting head Vivian van de Perre landed in Goma by UN helicopter last week — the first air access since M23 seized the city in January 2025 — to prepare the ceasefire verification mechanism. Fighting continues around Minembwe in South Kivu, where FARDC clashed with M23-aligned Twirwaneho fighters.
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Nigeria Opens Data Probe Into Temu — 12.7M Users Under Scrutiny
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Nigeria’s Data Protection Commission has launched a formal investigation into Chinese-owned e-commerce platform Temu for suspected violations of the country’s data protection laws. The NDPC cited concerns over online surveillance, opaque data handling, cross-border transfers, and possible breaches of data-minimisation requirements. Temu currently processes personal data of approximately 12.7 million individuals in Nigeria, with 70 million daily active users globally. NDPC chief Vincent Olatunji warned that third-party data processors can be held directly liable under the NDP Act. The move follows the Commission’s ₦766 million fine against MultiChoice in July 2025, a $220 million penalty against Meta upheld by a tribunal in April 2025, and earlier investigations into TikTok and Truecaller. Nigeria is asserting itself as Africa’s most muscular digital regulator.
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US Deportations to Cameroon — Migrants with No Country Ties Under Third-Country Programme
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Reports emerged Tuesday that the United States is deporting migrants with no ties to Cameroon under its expanding third-country removal programme. The deportations extend the Trump administration’s strategy of sending non-citizens to countries they have no connection to, using bilateral agreements. Cameroon joins a growing list of African nations drawn into US immigration enforcement through financial or diplomatic incentives. The practice raises serious legal and humanitarian concerns, with rights organisations challenging the legality of removing individuals to countries where they have neither citizenship nor residency. The programme operates alongside expanded sanctions — the US designated eight Nigerians in a February 10 OFAC action for alleged links to Boko Haram, ISIL, and cybercrime.
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Kenya Accused of Spying on Activist Boniface Mwangi with Israeli Surveillance Tech
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A new report has alleged that Kenyan authorities used Israeli surveillance technology to hack the phone of Boniface Mwangi, a prominent pro-democracy activist. The disclosure adds Kenya to the growing list of African governments accused of deploying commercial spyware against civil society figures. The case comes at a sensitive moment for Nairobi, dealing simultaneously with the JKIA strike fallout and preparations for the April border reopening with Somalia. Digital surveillance of activists has drawn increasing scrutiny across the continent, with the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights warning that spyware deployment against civic actors violates multiple AU instruments on freedom of expression and privacy.
The death toll from Cyclone Gezani has risen to at least 63 across Madagascar and Mozambique, with 804 injured, 15 missing, and over 16,000 displaced. The cyclone hit Madagascar’s second-largest city, Toamasina, on February 10 with winds of 185 km/h, destroying approximately 75% of the city’s buildings. Madagascar declared a national emergency with an estimated $142M in damage. After crossing into the Mozambique Channel, Gezani regained strength and hit Inhambane province with winds up to 215 km/h, killing at least four. As of Tuesday, the storm lies 300 km southeast of Madagascar and is weakening. This was the second cyclone to strike Madagascar in 2026, following Tropical Cyclone Fytia just 10 days earlier, which killed 14 and displaced 31,000.
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Ghana Cuts Cocoa Farmgate Price 29% as Global Collapse Reshapes West Africa
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Ghana’s Finance Minister announced February 12 that the cocoa producer price has been slashed to GH¢2,587 per bag — down 29% from the October 2025 price of GH¢3,625 — reflecting the collapse in global cocoa prices from ~$7,200/t to ~$4,100/t. Cocoa is now trading around $3,780/t, the lowest since October 2023, as a projected global surplus of 287,000 tonnes for 2025/26 overwhelms demand. Ghana has 50,000 metric tons of unsold cocoa sitting at ports, while Côte d’Ivoire launched a January buyback operation for warehoused beans. Ghana maintained the farmer’s share at 90% of the FOB price to cushion the impact. The collapse erases the revenue windfall both nations enjoyed during the 2024 price spike and threatens fiscal stability in Africa’s two largest cocoa producers.
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05
\nSovereign & Credit Pulse
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SOVEREIGN
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DEVELOPMENT
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OUTLOOK
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Nigeria
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NDPC Temu probe signals regulatory assertiveness; naira steady at ₦1,425; Brent at $67.40 tightening fiscal margin
Eclipse, Ceasefire, and the Assertion of Digital Borders
\nAs a partial solar eclipse crosses southern Africa and Ramadan begins tomorrow for hundreds of millions of the continent’s Muslims, the week’s real inflection points are terrestrial. Tomorrow’s DRC ceasefire deadline will test whether the seventh attempt at halting the eastern Congo war can hold where six predecessors failed — the presence of MONUSCO in Goma for the first time since the city’s fall is a tangible difference, but M23’s public rejection of the terms makes compliance unlikely without direct pressure on Kigali.
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\nNigeria’s Temu probe matters more than it appears. The NDPC has now gone after MultiChoice, Meta, TikTok, Truecaller, and Temu in under twelve months — establishing a regulatory cadence that will define the cost of operating in Africa’s largest digital market. Every platform with ambitions on the continent is now on notice that Nigeria intends to enforce its data laws with real financial consequences.
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\nThe Kenyan aviation strike is a reminder that Africa’s infrastructure ambitions are only as strong as the labour relations that sustain them. And at $3,780/t, cocoa’s collapse from its 2024 highs is no longer a correction — it’s a structural repricing that threatens the fiscal foundations of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire just as they need revenue most. Gold below $5,000, Brent sliding on Iran diplomacy, and the JSE retreating from records all point to a risk-off Tuesday. The crescent moon may bring reflection; the markets are demanding action.
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Africa Intelligence Brief
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Tuesday, February 17, 2026
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This is part of The Rio Times’ coverage of African business and economic developments for the global financial community.